With all 32 teams' first game in the book, I've made my NFL predictions for the Sunday afternoon slate of Week 2.
I'm backing three underdogs that lost in Week 1 as part of my NFL picks & predictions. Part of the reason is that Week 2 is notorious for being the time to do so as the market reacts to a small sample size of games.
In looking at the latest NFL odds, the Ravens are the biggest favorite of the slate at 8.5 points at home against the Raiders, although the Lions aren't too far behind, laying 7.5 to the Buccaneers at home. The biggest matchup of the late slate of games is Bengals vs. Chiefs, which is a classic spot to back a team like Cincinnati coming off of a disappointing performance last week.
On our public betting page, you'll see that the most popular team on the Sunday slate is the Giants, although I want no part of that game. The Ravens are getting the biggest percentage of the money at 89% at home against the Raiders.
Onto my picks. Let's get this shmoney!
NFL Week 2 Picks, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Picks |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
NFL Picks, Predictions
Browns-Jaguars Bet on Underdog
- Browns vs. Jaguars Spread: Browns +3 | Jaguars -3
- Browns vs. Jaguars Total: 41.5
Deshaun Watson had completed 59.1% of his passes while averaging 6.2 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with the Browns, yet they're 8-5 straight-up (SU) and 7-6 against the spread (ATS) in his starts.
Regardless of how Watson performs, they still have an elite defense that finished No. 2 in DVOA last season and held the Cowboys to just two offensive touchdowns and 4.4 yards per play last week. The Jaguars should have had 24 points instead of 17 had Travis Etienne not fumbled at the goal line, but they still looked mediocre with 267 total yards and 5.3 yards per play against Miami.
When these two teams met last season, the Jaguars put up 27 points in a four-point loss thanks to a couple of touchdown drives on short fields but managed only 58 yards on 20 carries (2.9 yards per carry), while Lawrence netted just 235 passing yards on 54 dropbacks (4.4 net air yards). Overall, the Browns held Jacksonville scoreless on 12-of-16 drives (excluding a drive consisting of one kneel-down at the end of the first half).
Despite Watson’s struggles, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say the Browns may well have the edge on offense, as well. The Jaguars allowed 400 total yards and 6.2 yards per play to Miami and could have given up far more than 20 points if not for two Miami turnovers on downs in Jacksonville territory and a head-scratching field-goal shank by Jason Sanders.
The Jaguars issues on defense are two-fold.
1) Jacksonville doesn’t generate enough pressure, doing so just 14.6% of the time in Week 1, which ranks 27th in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference. Since joining the Browns, Watson completed 66.9% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions when the pocket was clean but just 39.6% of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and three interceptions when under pressure.
2) Jacksonville's coverage took a major hit with No. 1 cornerback Tyson Campbell (hamstring) going on injured reserve and starting safety Darnell Savage (quad) ruled out. This after the Jaguars allowed 9.1 yards per attempt with no interceptions on 37 attempts against Tua Tagovailoa, who went on to average just 5.8 yards per attempt and throw three interceptions on 25 attempts before getting injured against Buffalo in Week 2. With Nick Chubb (PUP list, knee) and David Njoku (ankle) out, the clear strength of the Browns offensive is a wide receiver corps that goes four deep with Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman.
Per our Action Labs data, Week 2 underdogs that lost in Week 1 and are facing a favored opponent that was a ‘dog in Week 1 are 51-27-1 (65%) ATS since 2005, and Week 2 underdogs that lost in Week 1 and are facing a favored opponent that lost as a ‘dog in Week 1 are 48-24-4 (67%) ATS since 2005.
Road teams in Week 2 coming off a double-digit loss in Week 1 are 38-23-1 (62%) ATS since 2005, including a 32-19-1 (63%) mark for underdogs.
Bet to: +2
Pick: Browns +3 (-102)
Bucs-Lions: Pace Creates Value on Over/Under
- Bucs vs. Lions Spread: Bucs +7.5 | Lions -7.5
- Bucs vs. Lions Total: 51.5
While both of these teams should undoubtedly have success — this is Week 2’s highest total for a reason — pace and scheme could make it harder to get over the total.
Both teams were among the slowest-paced teams in Week 1. Per FTN, the Lions were 32nd in situation-neutral pace and 27th in first-half pace, and the Buccaneers were 29th in situation-neutral pace and 31st in first-half pace.
The Buccaneers secondary is ravaged by injuries with safety Antoine Winfield (foot) and cornerbacks Bryce Hall (IR, ankle) and Josh Hayes (ankle) already ruled out, while CB Zyon McCollum (concussion) is questionable.
However, those injuries could force Todd Bowles to sit back in coverage more often, rather than being its typical ultra-blitz-heavy self, inviting the Lions to run and throw underneath. Detroit might be efficient offensively, but it will also keep the clock running.
Meanwhile, the Bucs’ 37-point outburst in Week 1 came against what may be the worst defense in the league in the Commanders. Tampa Bay will now face a step up in class against a Lions unit that held the Rams to 5.2 yards per play and just two touchdowns in five red-zone trips. Last season, the Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense mustered just six points, 251 total yards and 4.6 yards per play against a worse Lions defense despite playing at home.
Per our Action Labs data, unders with a total of 49 or higher are 80-49-1 (62%) since 2021, including 41-16 (72%) since 2022.
Bet to: 50
Pick: Under 51.5 (-110)
Rams-Cardinals: Bet McVay In Spots Like This
- Rams vs. Cardinals Spread: Rams +1.5 | Cardinals -1.5
- Rams vs. Cardinals Total: 48
The Rams opened as favorites, but the line flipped once it was confirmed that wide receiver Puka Nacua would be placed on injured reserve. However, the Rams should still be able to throw effectively against a Cardinals defense that ranked 31st in DVOA against the pass last season and got carved up by Josh Allen for a 78.2% completion rate, 10.1 yards per attempt and two touchdowns on just 23 attempts with no interceptions.
Cooper Kupp looked back to his 2021 self in Week 1, hauling in 14 of his 21 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown. Tyler Johnson also stepped up for Nacua in a big way, with five receptions for 79 yards on seven targets, while new tight end Colby Parkinson was efficient by catching four of his five targets for 47 yards (9.4 yards per target).
The Cardinals run defense looked marginally better after finishing 30th in DVOA last season, but it still allowed the Bills to rack up 130 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The Rams struggled to run the ball against a Detroit run defense that finished No. 1 in DVOA last season but should find more room against a Cardinals team that allowed the Rams to go off for 28-179-1 and 33-228-1 in the two games last season.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals should be able to run on the Rams, who were gashed for 31-163-2 by the Lions in Week 1, but there’s a question as to just how much Kyler Murray and the passing game can complement their run game. Murray has struggled mightily throwing downfield, completing just 1-of-7 passes for five yards on throws 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage in Week 1 after completing just 35-of-79 (44.3%) such passes with more INTs (five) than touchdowns (four) last season.
The Rams did a great job bottling up underneath studs Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-13-0 on 6 targets) and Sam LaPorta (4-45-0 on 5 targets) last week but struggled against downfield threat Jamerson Williams (5-121-1 on 9 targets). However, neither Murray’s downfield struggles nor wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft, looking alarmingly slow while catching just one pass for four yards on three targets bode well for the Cardinals passing game.
On top of that, Murray has struggled in this type of spot historically, going just 5-11 (31%) ATS as a home favorite and 4-10 (29%) ATS in divisional home games, according to our Action Labs data.
Meanwhile, the Rams are 24-15-3 (62%) ATS off a loss under Sean McVay, including 12-7-2 (63%) on the road and 21-11-1 (65%) when the spread is -7 or shorter.
Bet to: Pick‘em
Pick: Rams +1.5 (-115)
Bengals-Chiefs: Classic Bounce-Back Spot for Cincinnati
- Bengals vs. Chiefs Spread: Bengals +6.5 | Chiefs -6.5
- Bengals vs. Chiefs Total: 48
Not that it’s any consolation for those who took them in survivor pools, but the Bengals were the unluckiest team from a scoring perspective in Week 1, falling 19.46 points short of their expected score in their dismal 16-10 loss to the Patriots, according to our Luck Rankings. The biggest culprits were Tanner Hudson losing a fumble as he was going in for a game-tying score in the second quarter, and Charlie Jones losing a fumble on a punt return in the third quarter, which set New England up inside the Bengals' 25-yard line.
In other words, the Bengals played well enough to secure a win, albeit an ugly one, and I see no major reason to give a big downgrade to the Bengals, who were expected to be right there with the Chiefs as one of the top teams in the AFC heading into the season. We already expected the Bengals run defense to once again be shaky and while the absence of Tee Higgins (doubtful, hamstring) hurts, they still have Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.
With that said, the Bengals are a prime candidate to bounce back in Week 2. Per our Action Labs data, Cincinnati is 10-3 (77%) ATS on the road in games Burrow has started coming off a loss.
Week 2 underdogs +6 or less that failed to cover the spread in Week 1 are 62-36-3 (63%) ATS since 2005, and Week 2 ‘dogs +6 or less that lost outright in Week 1 are 70-37-3 (65%) ATS since ‘05.
When the Bengals are +3 or more with Burrow at the helm, the Bengals are 15-3 (83%) ATS (including the postseason). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 11-14 (44%) ATS with more than seven days to prepare under Andy Reid and 18-30-2 (37%) ATS when favored by three or more points in Mahomes starts since early November 2020.
In four meetings against Mahomes, Burrow is 3-1 straight-up (SU) and ATS, with all four games being decided by a field goal.
Bet to: +4
Pick: Bengals +6 (-110)
