In Week 1 of the NFL season, we got close in our overtime pick in the Titans–Bears matchup, as Tennessee had a chance to tie it up in its final drive but ultimately fell short.
Last year using my overtime model we hit three of 29 overtime bets, all at 15-1 odds or longer for a 159% ROI — and that doesn't even include a 263-1 overtime parlay we hit in Week 2.
We're running it back each week of the 2024 NFL season with my favorite overtime bets, parlays, and round robins from my OT model. Every individual bet will be for a quarter-unit at FanDuel, while I'll sprinkle on some parlays and round robins from these picks.
This week, I have one pick and two others that are showing value that I'll mention afterward. I prefer to err on the side of caution this week, so no round robins.
Keep in mind that these are longshots for a reason so please bet responsibly. Here is my overtime pick and leans for NFL Week 2.
NFL Week 2 Predictions for Games to Go to Overtime
Saints vs. Cowboys Prediction: NFL Week 2 Prop Pick
The one overtime bet I'm making for sure is between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints at +1600.
This price is just a bit too long for a game with a six-point spread, especially when you consider the fact that both head coaches have gone for 2-point conversions around league-average rates.
In addition, both of the teams have second-year kickers who have been at or above average on extra points in their young careers.
This is my only for-sure bet for Week 2 and I'll be playing it for one-quarter of a unit.
Other Overtime Bets Showing Value
The other two games I show value on are Sunday afternoon's game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, and the Monday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles, both at +1500.
Both Joe Burrow for Cincinnati and Kirk Cousins for Atlanta have been dealing with injuries that could still be affecting their play. If you think they are still hampered by their injuries, I'd probably lay off OT bets on these two games.
However, if you believe the market has adjusted enough for their presumptive injury situations, I like overtime as value in these two games.
