NFL Week 2 was all about the underdogs. Underdogs went 8-8 straight up, including six outright wins by 'dogs in 1:00 p.m. window, which was tied for the most in any "1:00 p.m. window" since 2004. Six outright wins by 'dogs was last done in 2021.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 3 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Sept. 17, at 10 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Dog Eat Dog
Underdogs Reign
Underdogs of 7+ points start the season 3-0 SU — the first time 'dogs of 7+ are above .500 SU through two weeks since 1983.
Raiders (+9) over Ravens
Patriots (+8) over Bengals
Bucs (+7.5) over Lions
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 8-0 ATS through two weeks — covering the spread by 9.5 PPG. The best start for "big 'dogs" in history.
The biggest underdogs of the week are a combined 9-0 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2.
Biggest Underdog By Week
Week 2 (6-0 ATS): Raiders +9, Bucs +7.5, Saints +6.5, Bears +6.5, Bengals +6.5, Falcons +5.5
Week 1 (3-0 ATS): Patriots +8, Broncos +6.5, Cardinals +6.5
Bad All Around
Passing Game Struggles
Through two weeks, we’ve had 29 QBs throw the ball at least 20 times with under 200 passing yards – that is the most for any season since 2008 and the 2nd-most for any start to the season since 1990.
- In Weeks 1 and 2, only 17 of 64 QBs have gone over 1.5 passing TDs.
- There were also 24 QBs with one or fewer passing touchdowns with 20+ pass attempts in Week 1, the most since the merger in 1970.
- The Saints (40), Bills (42) and Steelers (43) are all 2-0 SU this year, with each having 43 pass attempts or fewer as a team. In the Wild Card era, since 1990, the three lowest total pass attempts by any team to start 2-0 have all come this season. We’ve only seen 12 teams start 2-0 SU with 50 or fewer pass attempts since 1990 – 5 of 12 have come this season.
So far during 2024, we’ve had just five QBs throw for 300+ passing yards. Those five QBs are 2-3 SU and just 0-4-1 ATS. The 1st time since 1980 no team w/300+ pass yards has covered in the first two weeks.
300+ pass yds in 2024:
Week 1: Tua Tagovailoa – 338 (won, no cover vs. JAC)
Week 1: Matthew Stafford – 317 (lost, no cover vs. DET)
Week 2: Geno Smith – 327 (won, pushed vs. NE)
Week 2: Brock Purdy – 319 (lost, no cover vs. MIN)
Week 2: Jared Goff – 307 (lost, no cover vs. TB)
Crowd Fail
Public Bettors Fall Early
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) is 11-20-1 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $989 – the 2nd-worst start for the betting public through two weeks since 2003.
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, it went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.
Only two teams are 0-2 ATS this season, with both games as the public side – Ravens and Rams.
Double Caution
No Big Favorites
As of now, there are no real candidates to close as a double-digit favorite in Week 3.
There's a chance we see no double-digit favorites in Weeks 1-3, which would be the first time that has happened in NFL history.
We saw no double-digit favorites in Weeks 1 or 2 in consecutive seasons for the first time since the merger in 1970. In the 55 seasons since the merger, there has been a double-digit favorite within the first two weeks in 49 of those seasons (ones that didn’t: 2024, 2023, 2020, 2015, 1984 and 1980).
Every NFL Game For Week 3
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➤The Patriots and Seahawks played an overtime game in Week 2. Historically, teams off an overtime game, playing on 7 days rest or less, who face a team who isn't off the extra session, win just 43% of games over the last decade, covering just 44% of them.
For the Patriots, having to play on a Thursday after a Sunday OT game is uncommon. Last 20 years, teams to play an OT game and then have to play on 3 days rest or less (Sunday-Thursday) vs. a team who didn’t play OT the week prior, are 6-18 SU and 3-21 ATS.
➤The Jets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Patriots after winning and covering their last game last year.
Jets are 1-15 SU in their last 16 games vs. Patriots, including 3-23 SU since the start of the 2011 season.
➤Jets have been favored once vs. Patriots since 2002 – Nov. 13, 2011. Mark Sanchez vs. Tom Brady.
Jets haven’t closed -7 or higher vs. Patriots since Sept 12. 1999 and haven’t closed -6.5 or higher since Sept. 11, 2000.
➤Aaron Rodgers has played 16 career games on a Thursday. He is 11-4-1 ATS, including 9-4-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football. As a favorite of 4 pts or more on Thursday’s, Rodgers is 8-1 ATS career.
As a favorite in night games, Rodgers is just 2-3 SU since his playoff loss to the 49ers in 2022.
➤Rodgers is .500 ATS or better in each of the four different days he’s played night games on in his career:
9-4-1 ATS Thursday
22-16-1 ATS Sunday
11-9 ATS Monday
3-3 ATS Saturday
➤Rodgers is an absurd 24-10 ATS vs. divisional opponents in night games during his career – making him the most profitable QB over the last 20 years in that spot.
➤Rodgers has played on just 4 days rest 12 times in his career. He’s 8-3-1 ATS, but this will be his first time in that spot since Nov, 2022. Rodgers is just 2-3 SU in five games on 4 days rest or fewer since 2018.
➤56 QBs have had 100+ pass attempts on Thursday night football since 1990 – Rodgers’ 32 pass TD is T-2nd most behind Peyton Manning (35) and Rodgers 6.4 pass TD/INT is better than Manning or Brady on TNF – Rodgers has 32 pass TD, 5 INT on TNF.
Rodgers is just 9-6 SU on TNF in his 15 starts, including 3-3 SU since 2018.
➤Sauce Gardner got roasted a bit last week vs. Titans.
6 targets, 5 receptions, 97 yards, 1 TD via PFF
It's only the second time he's allowed five catches in a game in his career.
➤Patriots aren’t used to being big underdogs on Thursday Night Football. This will be their biggest line as a 'dog on TNF since 2000.
Biggest NE 'Dog, TNF Since 1980
1990 at Dolphins, +10, Lost 17-10
2000 at Lions, +6.5, Lost 34-9
2023 at Steelers, +5.5, Won 21-18
➤What is on the line for New England this week …
Patriots are 1-0-1 ATS entering Week 3. New England hasn’t gone through three games without an ATS loss since 2016. 2007 and 2004 were the only two other seasons over the last 20 years without an ATS loss through three weeks.
➤Robert Saleh is 1-5 SU vs. Patriots in his career, including 4-14 SU, 7-11 ATS vs. divisional opponents in his career.
Of his 18 career games vs. divisional opponents, this will be his first as a favorite.
➤There have been six different Jets coaches in the last 20 years and none have been profitable ATS with New York. Saleh is 22-30-1 ATS with the Jets, the least profitable of the group.
➤Thursday home teams are just 37-52 ATS since 2019, including 33-46 ATS in night Thursday games.
➤The Patriots haven’t opened the season as underdogs of 3 or more pts in their first three games since 1976.
➤Because it's important we keep an updated tally …
Patriots since Brady left: 30-40 SU, 30-37-3 ATS
Patriots since Belichick left: 1-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS
➤Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Patriots have been listed as underdogs a total of 37 times in five seasons (14-21-2 ATS). Between 2004 and 2019, Brady in New England was listed as an underdog a total of 30 times in 16 seasons (19-10-1 ATS).
➤December 12th, 2021 — Aaron Rodgers’ last 300+ yard passing game. Also his last four-touchdown game (which came against the Bears). Since that 300-yard game: he's 13-12 SU, 11-14 ATS — includes NYJ opener win vs Buffalo last year.
➤Nathaniel Hackett is in his second year as OC in New York and his 11th as a coach or OC. His teams are 94-78-1 to the under, going .500 or better to the under in all five teams he’s been a part of.
'23-’24 NYJ: 7-11-1
'22 DEN: 6-11
'19-'21 GB: 27-27
'16-'18 JAC: 25-26
'13-'14 BUF: 13-19
➤The Jets and Bengals are in for a doozy this year. Since 2000, no team has had to play on a Thursday after back-to-back road games, with one of those two road games being a game played on a Monday.
In 2000, the Buccaneers had to do this, facing the Lions at home on Thursday, but they had a bye week before the game – not so much with New York and Cincinnati.
Jets: Week 1 at SF (MNF), Week 2 at TEN, Week 3 vs. NE (TNF)
Bengals: Week 14 at DAL (MNF), Week 15 at TEN, Week 16 vs. CLE (TNF)
➤The Jets schedule won’t do them any favors. In the first 11 weeks, the Jets will play six night games and a game in London without a bye week. No other team plays more than four night games in the first 11 weeks. In fact, in the last 20 years, the Jets’ six night games within the first 11 weeks is the most of any team.
➤The Jets and Giants are a combined 3-28 straight up playing at night in prime time since 2019.
➤At 35.5, this would be tied for the lowest Chargers O/U since 2006 with their Week 18 game last year between backup QBs against the Chiefs. 33.5 is their lowest total of the last 20 years coming back in 2006.
➤The Steelers are 22-14-1 ATS since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger at the end of the 2021 season. Pittsburgh is the 2nd-most profitable team ATS in the NFL in this span behind only the Lions.
Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger is 42-27-3 ATS, covering by 1.7 PPG, 77% in 6-point teasers.
➤Another week, another one-score win. Steelers beat the Falcons 18-10 in Week 1 and then won 13-6 in Week 2 vs. Broncos – going 2-0 SU this season in one-score games.
Last year, the Steelers were 9-2 SU in one-score games (within eight points), the best mark in the NFL – which is nothing new for Pittsburgh. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for eight straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Since 2020, they are 33-11 SU in one-score games, best mark in NFL. They are 31-13 ATS in those games with their avg line being close to PK in those games.
➤The Steelers have gone over their preseason win total in four straight seasons, the longest streak to the under in the NFL.
They are now 2-0 SU and 25% of the way to their win total of 8.
Under Tomlin, the Steelers have started 3-0 SU three times: 2020, 2010, 2007
➤After the Chargers beat the Panthers in Carolina, they are staying east when they face the Steelers this week.
Herbert doesn’t mind a good road trip. He’s 10-4 ATS in all games played in EST, including 16-8 ATS in EST or CST. That mark includes 6-2 ATS when coming off a SU win and 5-0 ATS since 2022.
➤The Chargers finished 3-5 ATS on the road last season, breaking an 11-year streak of finishing .500 or better against the spread on the road.
Herbert is 19-13 ATS on the road, including 9-3 ATS in September and October.
➤Justin Herbert has made 65 career starts in the NFL. He is 32-33 SU and 34-30-1 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 pts or fewer, he is 26-8 SU, 25-8-1 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 pts, he is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
When the game is played in EST or CST, Herbert is 16-8 ATS
When the game is played in MST or PST, Herbert is 18-22-1 ATS
➤Over the last three seasons, the under is 22-10 in Herbert’s 32 regular season starts – the second most profitable QB to the under in that span behind only Kenny Pickett (18-6).
➤2024 has started with two second-half covers for Herbert and the Chargers – not something that happens every day.
Herbert hadn’t covered the 2H spread in his first two starts of a season in his career. Overall, he is 3-11-3 2H ATS in the first 4 games of the season, even after the 2H cover vs. Raiders and Panthers.
Herbert is 20-40-5 (33%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he’s 258th of 260 QBs in 2H ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan.
Herbert is 9-26-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$1,780 — worst in NFL since he was drafted).
Herbert 2H ATS Career
2024: 2-0 ATS
2023: 3-9-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS
➤Jim Harbaugh is 5-0 in season openers, tying Raymond Berry for the best record in openers in NFL history. Berry won all five openers in New England from 1985-89.
After starting 2-0 SU in the pros, Harbaugh hasn't lost a game SU as a head coach since facing TCU in 2022. In his NFL career, Harbaugh is 24-8 SU in September and October.
➤NFL QBs under Jim Harbaugh
Alex Smith: 20-6-1 SU
Colin Kaepernick: 29-16 SU
Justin Herbert: 2-0 SU
➤The Chargers have gone under their preseason win total in five straight seasons, the longest streak to the under in the NFL.
L.A. is now 2-0 and over 20% of the way to going over its win total.
➤Herbert is 17-22-1 ATS in “toss up” games in his career – or games with a spread of four points or less, that includes a mark of 12-19-1 ATS in games with spread of three or less.
That 12-19-1 ATS mark is ranked 237th of 242 QBs last 20 years.
➤The Steelers are 2-0 SU after scoring only one TD combined in both games. Last team to win their first two games of the season (starting 2-0) scoring 1 TD or fewer in both games? 2010 Steelers.
➤Chargers have a new identity with Jim Harbaugh. Herbert averaged 2.2 sacks per game last year. Through two games, he’s been sacked just twice.
L.A. has the 2nd-most rushing yards in the NFL this year and the 2nd-most rushing yards per game at 5.5 yards per carry.
J.K. Dobbins has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games in his 1st two games playing for LA. Austin Ekeler never had back-to-back 100+ and he played 103 career games as a Charger.
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➤The Colts offense has been on fire averaging 6.68 yds per play. That would be the highest mark for an 0-2 team since 2016 Washington (8-7-1, no playoffs), 2011 Panthers (6-10) and 2008 Chargers (8-8, made playoffs).
➤The Colts have held the ball (TOP) for a total of 39 minutes across their first two games — 20 minutes in Week 1 and 19 minutes in Week 2.
They are the 1st team since the Seahawks in 2021 to have 20 min or less in back-to-back games and the 1st team since the Browns in 1999 to have 20 min or less in their first 2 games of the season.
➤Through two games, Caleb Williams has 267 passing yards on 66 pass attempts. His 4.0 Y/A is tied for the 2nd-lowest by any QB through two games of a season, with minimum 50+ attempts, since 1990. Only Kyle Boller’s 3.8 Y/A in 2003 was lower.
Caleb’s 7.3 average depth of target is middle of the pack this season, but he just isn’t getting extra yards.
Caleb was 0-of-7 with 2 interceptions on throws traveling at least 15 yards downfield. Through two weeks, Williams is 0-of-11 on such throws and all of them have been off target.
➤The Bears have a 2.97 yards per play mark so far this season – lowest mark in the NFL, and lowest mark for any team through two game since the Raiders in 2006 and the Texans in 2002.
➤On the other side of average depth of target, Anthony Richardson leads the NFL with 13.4 aDOT through two games. He had an aDOT of 8 last season. His 13.4 aDOT is highest for any QB through two weeks since 2018.
Highest aDOT through Week 2, Since 2018
13.4, 2024 Anthony Richardson
12.6, 2020 Jeff Driskel
12, 2018 Patrick Mahomes
11.9, 2018 Deshaun Watson
11.9, 2018 Josh Allen
11.7, 2019 Deshaun Watson
11.6 2019 Ryan Fitzpatrick
Richardson has 727 intended air yards on his throws this season (13.7/att), more than 100 yards more than the QB in second, Dak Prescott.
➤Does Richardson need to run more? He has 10 total carries through two games, the same as Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson.
➤Through two weeks, Richardson is completing just 49.1% of his passes. He is only the 5th QB since 2000 under 50% completion pct on 50+ attempts with 4+ interceptions through two games.
➤Historically, Colts have been a good team in weeks 2-4.
Last 20 years, Colts are 39-24-1 ATS (62%) in games 2-4 – best of any team in the NFL, with each of their five head coaches .500 ATS or better, and Shane Steichen 2-2 ATS so far with Indy.
➤After a miraculous cover vs. Titans and a backdoor vs. Texans, Bears are 2-0 ATS.
The Bears have only started 2-0 ATS once since 2006 – back in 2018 – also the last time the Bears finished a season above .500 ATS.
➤Vikings defense has been stingy under Brian Flores to start the season. They are 4th in EPA/play, 2nd in total QB pressures, 1st in sacks, allowing 1 pass TD with 3 INT.
In a QBs first two years in the league, they have faced a Brian Flores defense four times with the Vikings – they are 1-3 SU, with the one win coming in OT by the Bengals. With the Dolphins, QBs in first two years were 8-9 SU vs. Flores (2-5 SU on the road).
➤Texans are the 2nd team since divisional realignment in 2002 to be 2-0 SU, while their other three divisional opponents in the AFC South are all 0-2 SU. The other team to have that happen was the 2007 Patriots in the AFC East.
➤For the first time since 2012, the Texans will open the season being favored in their first four games. In 2012, Houston was favored in its first eight games of the season.
➤CJ Stroud has made 19 starts in his NFL career and he is 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-7 ATS as a favorite.
➤Texans won on the road in Week 1 and at home in Week 2 after tons of hype in the offseason.
Houston was the third-biggest move for a team year-to-year to 20-1 or shorter to win it all. They now join the 2000 Rams as the only teams since 1977 to go from 150-1 to 20-1 or shorter to win it all in consecutive years and start the season 2-0 SU. The 2000 Rams finished 10-6 and lost in the Wild Card round.
➤An absolute turn around for Sam Darnold. Here is how he entered the 2024 season:
21-35 SU as a starter, 16-26 SU as a 'dog, 5-9 SU as a favorite, 9-19 SU on the road and 12-16 SU at home. All under .500 SU.
In 2024, he’s 2-0 SU/ATS, winning both as a favorite and an underdog. Darnold has started 2-0 SU/ATS one other time, back in 2021 with the Panthers. He extended that to 3-0 SU/ATS and then finished 1-5 ATS down the stretch that year.
➤Darnold has played seven career games on a 2+ game win streak, his teams are 2-5 SU/ATS in those games.
➤Vikings are coming off a big win against the 49ers last week. In 2024, teams are 1-0 SU after facing the 49ers, but last three seasons, they are 10-25 SU, least profitable mark of any team in the NFL.
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➤Dating back to the 2022-23 playoffs, Daniel Jones has lost 9 consecutive games ATS, with his last ATS win coming against the Vikings in the playoffs in January 2023.
➤The Giants have allowed Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels to complete a combined 79.2% of passes this year – that is the 8th-highest mark through two games since the merger and the 2nd-highest mark since 2019 behind the Raiders last year (81.7%).
➤The Browns had a unique victory last week vs. Jaguars. They had 13 penalties and were 2-for-14 on 3rd down and won outright as a 'dog. They were the first team since 2011 to win with 13+ penalties and 2 or fewer 3rd down conversions and the 3rd in the Wild Card era (3-23 SU).
➤Deshaun Watson is 34-34-2 ATS in his career and 14-20-2 ATS as a favorite and 20-14 ATS as an underdog.
Watson is 10-15-1 ATS as a favorite of over a field goal, including 5-10 ATS since 2019.
➤58 QBs have had 200+ plays since the start of 2022, Watson is 47th in EPA/play, 51st in success rate, 47th in CPOE (comp. % over expected).
His EPA/play mark is surrounded by Mac Jones and Will Levis.
His success rate is around Zach Wilson and Will Levis.
Watson’s last 300 yd game came with the Texans in January 2021.
➤Browns are 8-16 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 148 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin. Stefanski is 26-20-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.
➤Kevin Stefanski is 4-0 ATS coaching in Week 3’s – all four games have come at home, with the Browns covering by 11.8 PPG.
➤The Browns had the best defense in the NFL last year, by most standards. But for this concept, it was by EPA per play on defense, too. Over the last decade, their -0.155 EPA/play mark on defense was the fourth-best of any team and the best since the 2020 Rams and 2019 Patriots.
Looking over the last decade, 22 teams have put up a defensive EPA/play of -0.1 or better (not including 2023) – all 22 teams had a worse EPA/play mark the following year with 19 of the 22 teams also having a worse EPA/play ranking than the previous year. Only one team improved their ranking year-to-year, the 2019-20 Steelers. On average, teams had a ranking between seven and eight spots worse the following year after an incredible defensive season.
Through two weeks, the Browns are 12th in EPA/play on defense at -0.064.
➤Giants became the first team in NFL history to score 3+ TD, allow no TD — and lose in regulation last week vs. Commanders.
Road 'dogs after allowing 0 TDs in their previous game are 26-60 SU, 45-36-5 ATS as a road 'dog in their next game.
➤Malik Nabers has 25 targets through two games, tied for the 2nd-most for any player in the NFL.
Most Targets, Thru 2 Career Games as Rookie
35 – Puka Nacua, 2023
27 – Anquan Boldin, 2003
26 – Terry Glenn, 1996
25 – Nabers, 2024
➤The Giants have been blown out in back-to-back openers and now lost in Week 2 this season to Washington.Giants were the first team since the 2019-20 Browns to lose back-to-back openers by 20+ pts and the sixth since 2000. Giants would join the 2008-09 Rams, 2002-03 Bengals and 2001-02 Lions starting 0-3 SU after starting b2b seasons losing by 20+.
➤Daniel Jones has been on a roller coaster in terms of his performance on bounce backs. Jones is 21-15 ATS in his career after a SU loss. He is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in that spot since the start of last season and was 5-1-1 SU, 7-0 ATS after a SU loss in the year prior (2022).
The difference has been the offensive outcome. In his last 4 starts after a SU loss, Giants have scored 43 total points.
➤The Giants went over their win total in 2022, but went under their win total last season. Since 2011, New York is 2-10-1 to their win total over. The Giants haven’t gone over their win total in consecutive seasons since 2007-08.
The Giants are currently winless with a win total of 6.5
➤Hurts is 1-4 ATS in his last five games as an underdog, including going 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his last 10 starts as an underdog.
Hurts and Sirianni are 4-7 ATS as underdogs as a duo.
➤Worst QBs on the moneyline since December 1st last season — Hurts was 35-14 SU entering this stretch.
Bryce Young: 1-7 SU, -$575
Jalen Hurts: 2-7 SU, -$609
Trevor Lawrence: 0-7 SU, -$700
➤Jalen Hurts is 17-10-1 ATS at home in his NFL career. Since he was drafted, that is the 4th-most profitable home ATS mark behind just Goff, Rodgers and Tua.
Hurts is 11-18-1 ATS playing either on the road or a neutral site.
➤Overall, Hurts is 1-8 ATS in his last 9 starts and is now an even 28-28-2 ATS in his career.
The Eagles have lost four straight home games ATS dating back to last season – their longest such losing streak since 2018 (lost 5 straight ATS).
The Eagles have lost four straight true road games ATS dating back to last season – their longest such losing streak since 2020 (lost 6 straight ATS).
➤What can you say about the Saints. 15 drives with starters, 15 scores. Scoring of all 15 of their drives to start game this year.
NO 1st 9 drives scores vs. CAR
NO 1st 6 drives scores vs. DAL
Saints are now the 5th team in NFL history to score 44+ points in 3 straight games They join the 2018 Saints, 2007 Patriots, 1968 Browns and 1941 Bears.
Saints are tied for the 3rd-most points for any team in the first two games of a season in the Super Bowl era:
1968 Raiders, 95
2009 Saints, 93
2024 Saints, 91
1971 Cowboys, 91
The Saints are 2-0 SU to start the season for the first time since 2013 and just the second time since 2010.
➤Now, let’s talk Derek Carr. His 11.4 Y/A leads the NFL by almost 2 full yards.
It’s tied for the 3rd-highest Y/A through two games since 1990 – highest since Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2018.
➤Carr is facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season in the Eagles – he's 35-58-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more. Of the 266 QBs in Bet Labs' database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
➤The Saints defense may be an underrated crew so far. They’ve allowed under 20 pts in 6 of their last 7 games dating back to last season. They are 2nd in EPA/play this year and success rate this year, including 3rd in both categories on defense since the start of last season.
➤Since 2018, the Saints have been more consistently a road team vs. home team.
They are 22-31 ATS at home and 33-19-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral) – the best road team ATS in the NFL and the 4th-worst home team.
➤The Saints blew out the Panthers in Week 1 and then did it again to the Cowboys in Week 2. In Derek Carr’s career, he is 29-40-1 ATS after a SU win, the 5th-least profitable QB in the NFL since 2003. The only active QB worse? Kirk Cousins.
➤Allen is 8-16 SU and 6-16-2 ATS after a SU win in his last game. That 6-16-2 ATS mark is 5th-worst of 146 coaches last 20 years. He’s 2-13-2 ATS after a SU win in November or earlier. His only cover before last week vs. Cowboys came against Brady Quinn in 2012.
➤The Saints are the 2nd team since 1990 to score 40+ pts in Weeks 1 and 2 and be listed as either an underdog or favorite of 3 pts or less.
The other was the Packers in 2020, who beat the Saints as dogs in New Orleans in their 3rd game.
If the Saints close as home dogs, they will be the 2nd team since 1990 to score 30+ in Weeks 1 and 2 and then close as a home dog in their 3rd game – the 2011 Bills did that and won outright.
➤The good news for the Saints is they are 'dogs this week. Derek Carr is 54-46-1 ATS as a 'dog and 22-37-2 ATS as a favorite.
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➤The Broncos are already 1-0 ATS on the road this season. In his career, Sean Payton is 78-58-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site. In his first season with Denver last year, he went 2-5-1 ATS on the road, his 2nd-worst season ATS of his career (2013).
➤Payton is 8-9 ATS in Week 1, 4-13 ATS in Week 2 – for a combined 12-22 ATS – 2nd-worst of 139 coaches last 20 years, ahead of just John Fox.
In his teams 3rd (11-5 ATS) and 4th (11-4-1 ATS) games, he is a combined 22-9-1 ATS, best of any coach in the NFL of 134 coaches.
➤In 17 seasons, Sean Payton's teams are 13-4 above .500 ATS, including .500 ATS or better as underdogs in 14 of 17 seasons.
When Payton’s teams are 'dogs in September or October, they are 29-13-1 ATS. This is just the 3rd time Payton’s team will start the season as a dog in three straight games: 2006, 2017, 2024.
➤Bo Nix has 77 pass attempts so far this season through two starts, the 3rd-most in the NFL this season.
That is the 8th-most since 1990 for QB in his first two starts and the most ever by a rookie through two starts without a touchdown pass.
Rookies through two starts, with 50+ pass attempts, 0 pass TD and 4+ INT:
2024 Bo Nix
2023 Dorian Thompson Robinson
2019 Will Grier
2012 Ryan Lindley
2005 Ryan Fitzpatrick
➤Bo Nix is 11-of-36 for 212 and 4 picks on passes more than five (!) yards downfield.
His 30.6% completion rate on such passes is the lowest in the league by six percent AND the worst figure in Weeks 1 and 2 in the last 10 years (via Austin Gayle)
➤Raiders and Bucs won as 7+ pt underdogs last week and are now favored by around 5 pts. Teams to have that flip week-to-week within the first 3 weeks of the season are 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the Wild Card era.
Dating back to 2016, those teams to flip from +7 or higher in a SU win to -5 or higher the next week are 8-0 SU/ATS, including 12-2 SU/ATS since 2013.
On the other side – last decade, teams coming off a SU win as a 7+ pt dog are just 45% ATS in their next game, failing to cover the spread by over 2 PPG.
➤Baker Mayfield started his career 2-6 ATS in the first two weeks of the season prior to getting to Tampa Bay. Since his time with the Bucs, he is 4-0 SU/ATS in early season games.
The question is can they win again? Baker has played 27 career games off of a SU win, when he is listed as an underdog in his next game, his teams are 9-19 SU, but a decent 5-4 SU with the Bucs.
➤The Broncos have gone under their win total in four straight years, but are 0-7-1 to their win total over since 2016. They last went over in 2015 when they won the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning.
Through two weeks, Denver is 0-2 SU and already in last in the AFC West.
➤Todd Bowles has been favored by six pts or more eight times in his career as a head coach, his teams are just 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS.
Under Bowles, Baker Mayfield is 5-2 SU as a favorite, Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick – Bowles’ other two lengthy QBs – were combined 17-13 SU as a favorite for him.
Bowles is 48-53-5 ATS (47.5%) in his coaching career. He’s 14-7 ATS with Baker Mayfield and 34-46-5 ATS with all other QBs.
➤Over the last two seasons, the under is 20-11 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game. A $100 bettor would be up $723 taking the under in this spot, second-best of any current starting QB behind just Justin Herbert.
➤Mayfield is 1-0 ATS as a favorite in 2024 and has covered 2 in a row as a fav. Is he turning a new leaf?
Mayfield is 15-26-1 (37%) ATS as a favorite since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,175. Since he was drafted back in 2018, Mayfield is the third-least profitable QB ATS of 94 QBs, ahead of only Derek Carr and Russell Wilson. Mayfield has never finished a season above .500 ATS as a favorite.
Baker has done a good job at avoiding the upset for the most part in his career, going 12-1 SU as a 6+ pt favorite.
➤The Packers haven’t played a game with an O/U below 37 since 2007 against the Bears – a game between Brett Favre and Kyle Orton.
➤Will Levis has made 11 starts in his NFL career, he is 8-3 1H ATS and 1-10 2H ATS.
During the normal Sunday slate, Levis has made nine starts and he is 0-9 2H ATS.
➤The Packers are 1-1 SU/ATS as dogs this year. Matt LaFleur is 23-11 ATS (68%) as an underdog, the best % for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 19-15 SU as a dog (+$1,558 on $100 bet).
In the first three weeks of the regular season, LaFleur is 14-3 ATS with the Packers. With a win Sunday, he would be the most profitable coach last 20 years in this spot.
➤Malik Willis gets another start for the Packers with Jordan Love out.
Here is how backup QBs making their second start for a team in a season has performed recently.
Backups Since 2021
1st start – 29-57-1 SU, 45-40-2 ATS
2nd start – 16-30 SU, 24-22 ATS
➤With Love sidelined, the Packers will go to a back up QB for just their 3rd game since 2017. Their last such game before last week came in 2021 when Jordan Love came in for Aaron Rodgers against the Chiefs and lost 13-7, but covered the 7-pt spread.
Dating back to 2017, Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games with a backup QB.
➤Last 20 years, only 4 QBs are above .500 ATS for the Packers – Rodgers, Favre, Love and Malik Willis – the other four – Flynn, Wallace, Hundley, Tolzein – are .500 ATS or worse.
In Malik Willis’ four career starts, his teams have scored 16, 14, 17 and 17 pts.
➤Will Levis has accumulated almost 400 total plays at QB this year and last season. Of the 41 QBs to have at least 200 plays since the start of last year, Levis ranked 31st in EPA/play, 34th in success rate, 41st (last) in completion percentage … and first in air yards at over 10.5 per attempt.
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➤Raiders and Bucs won as 7+ pt underdogs last week and are now favored by around 5 pts. Teams to have that flip week-to-week within the first 3 weeks of the season are 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the Wild Card era.
Dating back to 2016, those teams to flip from +7 or higher in a SU win to -5 or higher the next week are 8-0 SU/ATS, including 12-2 SU/ATS since 2013.
On the other side – last decade, teams coming off a SU win as a 7+ pt dog are just 45% ATS in their next game, failing to cover the spread by over 2 PPG.
➤Raiders have historically been terrible as big favorites. As a fav of 4 pts or more, they are 6-17 ATS last 20 years, with their last such game coming in December of 2022.
➤The story in this game is the Panthers benching Bryce Young and going to Andy Dalton.
If you just look over the last 3 seasons since 2022, Andy Dalton has had 505 total plays at QB, while Bryce Young is at 732 plays. Of the 39 QBs with 500+ plays in that span, Bryce is 39th in EPA/play, Dalton is 21st, Bryce is 39th in success rate, Dalton is 11th, Bryce is 37th in CPOE, Dalton is 24th.
➤In his career, Dalton is 83-77-6 ATS (52%), but Dalton has been .500 ATS or worse each of the last six seasons and since 2021, he’s 5-9 ATS as an underdog.
Dalton hasn’t closed +5 or higher vs. a team .500 SU or worse since 2020 as a member of the Cowboys.
➤Last year, the Panthers averaged just 4.11 yards per offensive play. That was not only the worst mark in the NFL, but the worst mark for any team since the Bengals back in 2008. Not only that, but their 4.11 Y/OP was the third-lowest for any time since 1990 with at least 1,000 offensive plays run that season.
To open 2024, Carolina has had 3.5 yards per play in Weeks 1 and 2 and are at 3.49 for the season.
That would be bad, except the Bears are at 2.97, worst mark in the NFL.
➤The Panthers didn't snap the ball while leading in the fourth quarter of a single game last season – the first team to do so in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Dating back to the end of the 2022 regular season, Carolina hasn’t snapped the ball in the fourth quarter with a lead since Week 17 last year – 20 games ago.
➤Over the past two seasons, teams after playing the Chiefs and Ravens are a combined 48-23 SU, good for the 2nd- (BAL) and 4th-most (KC) profitable previous opponents in that span.
➤Raiders are averaging 2.5 yards per rush on 39 carries this season, worst mark in the NFL this year and worst mark for any team through two games since 2019.
➤Through two starts and 71 pass attempts, Gardner Minshew has the best completion pct in the NFL at 77.5% this season and the 3rd-lowest aDOT of any QB this season.
Minshew has a 5.4 aDOT this year, his aDOT was at 7.4 last year.
➤The Raiders pulled off the upset last week and broke the trend on Minshew.
Minshew is 9-4 SU in his career when listed as a betting favorite and now 7-19 SU as an underdog. Minshew is 2-15 SU in his past 17 starts as an underdog dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
➤The Raiders have seen some success from their draft pick Brock Bowers this season. He has 15 receptions through two games, which is tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL.
Bowers’ 15 receptions is the most since at least 1992 for any TE in their first two career games as a rookie.
➤How have the Raiders performed since moving to Las Vegas?
Raiders at home in Vegas: 17-17 SU, 19-14-1 ATS
On road/neutral: 16-20 SU/ATS
➤Antonio Pierce is 8-2-1 ATS with the Raiders – the best ATS win pct for any coach for the Raiders in the Wild Card era since 1990. That 8-2-1 ATS mark is the best record of any coach in the NFL since he got the job in Week 9 last year.
➤The Panthers woes continue …
They've been an underdog in 22 straight games (31 of last 32) and were last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT).
Lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite
Every other NFL team has had at least three covers as favorites since Sept. 2021
Last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021
Carolina hasn’t led by 10+ pts at any point during the game since Week 6 of last season and they’ve actually lost their last three games outright when they’ve had a 10+ pt lead.
➤Before the Tua injury, the Dolphins were 2-pt road favorites in Seattle for Week 3, which moved down to -1 within a few hours after its opening. Now, after Week 2, Seattle is around a 5-pt favorite.
➤Geno Smith is playing like a top QB so far this year. 7th EPA/play, 4th success rate, 5th in CPOE, 11th in aDOT.
Geno has been slinging it, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both have 18+ targets, only the Lion duo of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams also have 18+ as teammates.
➤Seahawks got a win on the road without their stud RB Kenneth Walker. In his career with Seattle, the team is just 5-9 SU when he doesn’t play or gets fewer than 10 carries.
The Seahawks are 26th in rush EPA and 23rd in rush success rate this season.
➤As a favorite of 3 or more, Geno is 15-5 SU in his career – 10-5 SU at home and 5-0 SU on the road.
Geno has closed -5 or higher six times and he is 6-0 SU in those games.
➤Through two games, the Dolphins have not led a second of any game, losing wire-to-wire in Week 2 vs. Bills without a lead and winning at the buzzer vs. Jaguars.
➤Miami is lucky to be 1-1 after a massive comeback in Week 1 vs. Jaguars. The Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000 – the longest drought without a playoff win in the NFL and 3rd-longest in the four major U.S. sports.
MLB/NFL/NBA/NHL – Longest Droughts Without Winning Playoff Round
Reds (1995)
Dolphins (2000-01)
Hornets (2001-02)
Raiders (2002-03)
➤Dolphins have lost three straight games against the first half spread entering this road game vs. Seahawks. Miami has been outscored by 9+ points in all three first halves.
➤This will be the 25th game of the last decade where the Dolphins franchise has to turn to a backup QB now with Tua Tagovailoa out with a concussion.
Dolphins backup QBs:Skylar Thompson, Teddy Bridgewater, Jacoby Brissett, Josh Rosen, Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore
They are 7-17 SU, 10-14 ATS, going 3-10 SU since the start of the 2019 season. Dolphins haven’t won a road game SU with a backup QB since Matt Moore in 2016 – 11 consecutive SU losses.
➤Justin Fields in Week 1. Malik Willis in Week 2. Backup QBs are 2-0 SU/ATS so far this season.
Here is how backup QBs have performed in their first start as a backup for that team that season, while also being listed as an underdog:
10-16 SU (36%), 13-12-1 ATS since start of last season
21-49 SU (29%), 38-30-2 ATS (55%) since 2021 – past three seasons.
➤Mike McDaniel is 19-19 ATS in his pro coaching career. He’s 17-16 ATS with Tua Tagovailoa and 2-3 ATS with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson in 5 starts.
In the 5 games without Tua, they are avering 18.8 PPG, scoring 21 or less in 4 of the 5 games.
➤A bit of a different role for Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. In six career games on extended rest, Dolphins have been favorites in all six going 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS. They are now listed as the underdogs.
In the 2 of 6 games above, they were listed under a TD favorite twice, they lost both games.
➤Dolphins are 0-2 ATS at home this season after winning, but not covering, against the Jaguars in Week 1 and losing Week 2. Miami hasn’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. They are 39-25-3 ATS since 2016 at home. The Dolphins are the best home team ATS in that span, with the Packers coming in second.
➤Week 1 was the 4th time the Dolphins overcame a deficit of 14+ points under Mike McDaniel — the most in the NFL since 2022.
➤This will be the Dolphins 5th game under Mike McDaniel played outside the eastern time zone after Week 1 – a true week-to-week travel spot. Miami is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 9 PPG.
➤The Patriots and Seahawks played an overtime game in Week 2. Historically, teams off an overtime game, playing on 7 days rest or less, who face a team who isn't off the extra session, win just 43% of games over the last decade, covering just 44% of them.
➤Seahawks are coming off a road win in New England last week. Teams after facing the Patriots in New England are 18-27-1 ATS since 2018
➤Geno Smith is 10-16-2 ATS as a favorite in his career and 22-17-2 ATS as an underdog. Of Geno's 10 career covers as a favorite, only two came when the opponent scored more than 20 points. As a favorite of over four points, Geno is 2-8 ATS in his career.
➤Seattle has some of the best home records in the NFL, especially early season. In the first four games of the regular season, Seattle is 53-33 SU last 20 years. They are 33-8 SU at home and 20-25 SU on the road.
Last decade, they are both good: 13-4 SU at home, 12-9 SU on the road.
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➤Cardinals are home underdogs after scoring over 40 pts in their previous game. Only two teams have closed as a home dog in September after scoring 40+ pts in their previous game since 2010:
2022 Dolphins vs. Bills – Won
2018 Buccaneers vs. Eagles – Won
➤Lions-Cardinals is by far the highest total of Week 3. Totals of 50+ are 3-0 to the under this season, going under the total by 12 PPG.
Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 13-2 to the under and last three years they are 30-11 to the under, going under the total by 5.2 PPG.
➤A little inflated? Totals of 50+ with Dan Campbell and the Lions are 10-5 to the under, going under the total by 3.9 PPG.
➤Lions have won 8 consecutive games ATS after a SU loss dating back to November, 2022.
Goff is 17-8 ATS with Lions after a SU loss, Campbell is 17-9 ATS in that spot.
➤The Cardinals have scored 69 total pts through two games, the 2nd-most of any team in the NFL.
Arizona, the Saints and Bills are the three teams to score 28+ pts in Week 1 and 2. Those teams in Week 3 are actually above .500 ATS at 27-21 ATS last 20 years.
➤Dating back to last season, the Cardinals have covered the spread in four straight games.
It’s Arizona’s longest ATS winning streak since 2021 (5 games).
➤Cardinals recently have started hot. They are .500 ATS or better in the first four games of the regular season in seven straight seasons, going 10-4 ATS since 2021 in that spot.
➤Kyler Murray had struggled with the deep ball. 20+ yds downfield entering Week 2, he was 0-3 vs. the Bills. In 2023 he was 8-26 (30.8%) on his deep balls and in 2022 he was 12-45 (26.7%) … this was after finishing 35-71 (49%) on deep balls back in 2021.
In Week 2 vs. Rams, Kyler was: 5-for-5 for 156 yards and 3 TDs on +20 air-yard throws
➤Murray has also had success when traveling east in his career with the Cardinals. Playing in EST, he is 12-3 ATS, including 17-6 ATS playing in either EST or CST — covering the spread by 6 PPG — and only 19-24-2 ATS playing in either MST or PST.
➤Kyler Murray has had success in his career when listed as an underdog. He's 26-15-2 ATS as a dog and has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in each of his six seasons in the NFL. Since he entered the NFL, he's the 2nd-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog, behind only Jared Goff.
➤Marvin Harrison Jr. through two career games.
Week 1: 3 targets, 1 rec, 4 yds
Week 2: 8 targets, 4 rec, 130 yds, 2 TD
Marvin Harrison Sr didn’t have 130+ yds and 2+ TD in any game in his first four seasons in the NFL.
➤Aidan Hutchinson leads the NFL in sacks with 5.5 currently.
Hutchinson’s 5.5 sacks through two games is the most for any player since Clay Matthews in 2012 – Matthews also did it again in 2010.
➤The Lions lost in Week 2 vs. the Bucs. Some Jared Goff superlatives after a loss.
+Goff is most profitable QB ATS over the past five years overall – since 2020 at 44-25 ATS, +$1,527 on a $100 bet. He’s also most profitable last 3 years at well going 27-12 ATS.
+Goff is 24-12 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL. He’s 20-13 ATS on the road.
➤Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor…
Indoor: 36-18 ATS (26-10 ATS last four seasons)
Outdoor: 36-35-2 ATS
➤The Lions are 36-17 ATS (69.2%) in the regular season over the past four years — best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the 2nd-best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Wild Card era since 1990.
➤This is just the 5th time in the Ravens' 29-year existence that they've started a season 0-2. In the previous four instances, Baltimore did not make the playoffs:
1999: 8-8
2002: 7-9
2005: 6-10
2015: 5-11
➤Ravens fall to 0-2 for the first time since 2015.
That is also the last time a 1-seed from the previous year started 0-2: 2015 Seahawks who finished 10-6 and lost in the Divisional Round.
➤Since 2020, Ravens have 8 home losses after leading by 10+ pts at any point in the game – three more than any other team.
Their 11 losses leading by 10+ pts since 2020 is tied for the 49ers for most.
➤Lamar Jackson won the MVP award last season and now his team is 0-2 SU and fighting for their first win.
He is the 4th NFL MVP since 1970 to start 0-2 SU the following season – 2002 Kurt Warner, Rams, 1984 Joe Theismann, Washington and Brian Sipe, 1981 Browns.
2002 Rams started 0-5 (missed playoffs)
1984 Washington started 0-2, then won 5 straight (won division, lost in div. playoffs)
1981 Browns started 0-2, then won 2 straight (missed playoffs)
➤Jackson has 11 total “bad throws” this season – passes off-target – tied for the most in the NFL with Bryce Young.
➤Jackson is 22-7 ATS as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog. In all other spots, he's 23-33 ATS career.
Lamar was 4-0 ATS last year after a SU loss. Now after the loss vs. Raiders, he is 0-1 ATS in 2024. In his career, Lamar is just 9-11 ATS after a SU loss, but the good news he is 5-2 ATS on road and 4-9 ATS at home after a loss.
➤Lamar Jackson has faced an NFC team 21 times in his career, he is 20-1 SU (10-11 ATS) in those games – with his only loss coming to the Giants back in 2022.
➤Brandon Aubrey has turned into a weapon for Dallas. Aubrey is 13-13 from 50+ yards in his career and 21-21 from 40+ yards.
That breaks a tie with Blair Walsh for most consecutive 50+ Yd FG without a miss to begin a kicker’s career in NFL history.
➤The Cowboys regular season home win streak is over at 16 games and now they have to face the fact they’ve allowed 92 pts in their last two home games – the 3rd time in franchise history they’ve allowed 40+ pts in consecutive home games – last doing so in 2000.
Cowboys have also lost three straight home games ATS – they haven’t lost 4 straight at home ATS since 2020.
➤Mike McCarthy is 57% ATS in his career after a SU loss. In September after a loss, he is 9-5-1 ATS, covering the spread by 4.4 PPG.
McCarthy in Sept-Oct: 71-49-3 ATS (2nd-best last 20 years for any coach behind just Bill Belichick).
➤Dak Prescott is 29-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,641) | 37-44-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$924).
Over the past 20 years, Prescott has been the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. his division (Rodgers is first).
Against teams outside the NFC East, Dak has lost six of his last seven games ATS entering and since he was drafted, he's the third-least profitable QB in this spot of 138 QBs, ahead of just Brock Osweiler and Derek Carr.
➤The Cowboys points fiesta started off on the right track. Last year, they became the 28th team in NFL history to score 500 points in a season and the sixth team to score 500+ points, but not win a playoff game, joining the 2021 Cowboys, 2019 Ravens, 2011 Packers, 2010 Patriots and 2000 Rams.
Here is how those six teams performed the year after. All six won a playoff game, with two making (and losing) the Super Bowl.
2023 DAL -> 2024: 1-1 SU, 52 pts
2021 DAL -> 2022: 12-5, 467 pts, W WC, L Div
2019 BAL -> 2020: 11-5, 468 pts, W WC, L Div
2011 GB -> 2012: 11-5, 433 pts, W WC, L Div
2010 NE -> 2011: 13-3, 511 pts, W Div, CC, L SB
2000 STL -> 2001: 14-2, 503 pts, W Div, CC, L SB
➤Dating back to last season, Lamar Jackson has lost four straight games 1H ATS – tied for the longest 1H ATS losing streak of his career.
Overall, Jackson is 51-32-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the 2nd-best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 260 QBs. No. 1 on the list? Joe Flacco.
2024: 0-2 1H ATS
2023: 13-5 1H ATS
2021-22: 10-13-1 1H ATS
2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
➤Todd Monken is in his 2nd year as offensive coordinator in Baltimore — his fifth offensive coordinator stint in NFL — and his teams' ATS results haven’t been great.
2024: BAL 0-2 ATS
2023: BAL 12-7 ATS
2019 CLE: 5-10-1 ATS
2018 TB: 5-9-2 ATS
2017 TB: 6-9-1 ATS
2016 TB: 9-7 ATS
Total: 37-44-4 ATS
➤Tom Brady will be on the call for Ravens-Cowboys after having Cowboys-Browns in Week 1 and Saints-Cowboys in Week 2. Just so we can keep track, road teams 2-0 SU/ATS, underdogs 2-0 SU/ATS and overs 2-0 with Brady in the booth.
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➤Rams had the worst loss of Week 2, losing by 31 pts to the Cardinals. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 30+ pts and are underdogs of 4 pts or more in their next game are 88-50-3 ATS (64%).
➤Home divisional underdogs in the first four games of the regular season are 61% ATS over the last 20 years and are 1-0 ATS in 2024 with the Colts cover in Week 1 vs. Texans.
➤Brock Purdy is 22-7 SU in his NFL career – two of those seven losses have now come against the Vikings.
After the 49ers loss vs. Vikings last year, San Francisco lost again vs. the Bengals.
➤The Rams have allowed a whopping 9.86 yards per attempt on defense this year, highest mark in the NFL – Jared Goff in Week 1 and Kyler Murray in Week 2 have averaged almost 10 yards per attempt vs. Rams through two weeks.
➤The 49ers are now 2-3 SU in games where McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries and his teams (CAR, SF) are 19-29 SU when he either doesn’t play or has fewer than 10 carries.
➤In Stafford’s career, he is 3-7 ATS vs. 49ers, including 1-6 SU in his last seven starts vs. 49ers.
➤Matthew Stafford is 5-9 ATS Weeks 1 & 2 since 2018, with Stafford/Sean McVay on a 3-game SU losing streak in early season games.
Stafford is 8-4-2 ATS in Week 3 in his career, 5-0-1 ATS since 2018.
➤McVay was known as one of the hot coaches early on, starting his career 17-4 SU in September, going above .500 SU in all six seasons entering last year. Now, he’s lost four straight SU in September.
➤Sean McVay is 5-10 ATS vs. 49ers in his career, his least profitable opponent ATS of any team. Even after the Rams loss last week vs. Cardinals, he is 22-8-1 ATS vs. Arizona and the Seahawks in his career, his two most profitable opponents.
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 24-8 SU when listed as favorites and only 4-12 SU as underdogs.
➤McVay and Stafford have been a decent bet after a divisional game as a duo. They are 10-6-2 ATS after a divisional game and 10-16 ATS after a non-divisional game.
➤The road-road game off of a loss isn’t something the 49ers have experienced much lately. Ironically enough, it’s only happened once since 2021 – last year in the Vikings game, a game they lost SU.
The 49ers had covered the spread in five straight road games dating back to last season before their loss vs. Vikings – it was their longest such streak since 2019-20 (6 games).
➤The Rams OL is an issue. Stafford has been sacked 7 times in their first two games, his 2nd-most through Week 2 in his career.
Rams are 28th in run block and last in pass block according to PFF. Rams have allowed the 2nd-most pressures to their QB of any team this year (Browns 1st).
➤Christian McCaffrey was a surprise late inactive for MNF in Week 1 and has now missed the first two weeks.
In games Christian McCaffrey has started for the 49ers, they have gone 26-6 SU and 19-13 ATS.
The 49ers are now 2-3 SU in games where McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries and his teams (CAR, SF) are 19–29 SU when he either doesn’t play or has fewer than 10 carries. The 49ers rank 12th in rush EPA this season without McCaffrey even playing.
➤Trent Williams had a question mark on his name entering Week 1 and ended up playing.
SF has lost five consecutive games SU where Williams either hasn’t played or played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps.
SF pts scored: 20, 19, 17, 17, 14
SF is now 22-3 SU in the games Williams has played over 50% offensive snaps during that five-game losing streak without him
➤The 49ers have played three games without Deebo Samuel since the start of last season and they are 0-3 SU, scoring exactly 17 pts in all three games.
Overall, SF has played 17 games without Deebo in his career and they are 8-9 SU.
➤The 49ers have won 5 straight road games SU vs. NFC West, including 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. division opponents.
➤Can Kirk do it again? In Cousins' career, he has started 42 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. – and is 18-23-1 SU, 17-25 ATS. At night, he is 13-19 SU, 14-18 ATS.
Cousins is 8-3 SU (5-6 ATS) in primetime in his last 11 starts, but covering the spread has been issue: 3-6 ATS in his last 9 primetime starts.
Cousins has been the underdog in primetime 22 times. His teams are 6-15-1 SU, 9-13 ATS (5-13 SU, 7-11 ATS as a dog at night).
In his career, Cousins has played 31 games after a night start – he’s an even 16-15 SU, 15-16 ATS. This is a bit different, with Cousins at night again. He’s played 5 night games after a night game, he’s 2-3 SU/ATS, but has won his last two start in this spot.
➤The under has now cashed in 8 consecutive starts by Kirk Cousins dating back to last season.
That is contrast to his career tendencies: The over is 83-67-1 in Cousins’ career starts – making him the most 5th-most profitable QB to the over in the last 20 years.
➤Can Cousins pull the upset again? He’s 1-6 SU when listed as a dog after winning his previous game as a dog SU.
➤Kirk Cousins just doesn’t enjoy night games (usually!). Here are his W/L splits.
1p ET or earlier: 58-33-2 SU (64%)
After 1p ET: 20-38 SU (35%)
➤Cousins is 11-20 ATS at home since 2020, which is the least profitable mark of 102 QBs in that span – includes 4-4 ATS as a home dog in that span.
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through two games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks.
➤Patrick Mahomes is 17-4 SU and 12-9 ATS in September. That 17-4 SU mark is the best of any month for Mahomes in terms of ML profitability.
➤Mahomes is 38-43-2 ATS (47%) career as a favorite of more than a FG. In all other spots, he is 24-8-1 ATS (75%).
➤Mahomes by time of kickoff …
PM 1 p.m. ET: 14-17-2 ATS | After 1 p.m. ET slate: 47-34-1 ATS
➤Mahomes is 23-6 SU career against NFC teams, but only 6-6 SU in night games and just 3-5 SU during the regular season.
➤Mahomes had 151 pass yds and 2 INT last week vs. Bengals – first game of his career with under 200 pass yds and 2+ INT.
In his career, Mahomes is 6-0 SU on the road after throwing for fewer than 200 pass yds, KC is winning by 15.8 PPG.
➤Eight teams in Super Bowl history have gone for three-peat, they are combined 13 games below .500 ATS in that third season and none of the eight teams were 3-1 ATS or better in their teams' first four games that year.
The 2024 Chiefs are 2-0 SU, but 1-1 ATS and on their way to more history.
➤In games that Taylor Swift attends, the Chiefs are now 12-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS after their Week 1 win against the Ravens, but ATS loss in Week 2 vs. Bengals.
With KC 17-6 SU and 14-8-1 ATS since the start of last year – they are just 5-3 SU and ATS without Swift.
➤The Falcons are in a tough spot this week after winning as underdogs SU last week.
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➤NFL first half unders are now 107-88-3 (54.9%) in night games since 2021 after a 2-5 start in 2024 and a 32-32-1 season in 2023.
But where the edge stands is on MNF, they are 36-22-1 (62%) since 2021, 14-7-1 since the start of last season.
➤On extra rest in his career, Josh Allen is just 8-14-1 ATS, including 5-8-1 ATS at home and 5-9-1 ATS as a favorite.
➤The Bills are in a unique rest spot this week. Off a Thursday night game, with a Monday game up next. Since 2015, that rest spot has only happened two other times in the first three weeks of the regular season.
2023 Eagles beat the Bucs 25-11
2022 Bills beat the Titans 41-7
➤Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS in his first four games of the regular season – he’s just 37-38-5 ATS in game 5 or later of a season.
➤Allen has 70 wins in his career. 50 of those 70 wins have been by seven points or more.
➤Not the most strenuous game for Allena and the Bills vs. Miami last week, but in his career, Allen is 14-21-1 ATS after facing a divisional opponent, including 5-7 ATS after facing the Dolphins.
➤The biggest advantage in Buffalo? That might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 61-41-3 against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the third-most profitable QB on the second-half spread. In 2024, he’s 2-0 2H ATS.
➤Josh Allen has closed as a favorite of 4 points or more 26 times over the last three full seasons and the Bills are 8-17-1 ATS in those games. Of the 46 QBs to close over four points in any game in that span, Allen's 8-17-1 ATS mark is the worst.
➤Allen has played on Monday night eight times, he’s 3-5 ATS in his career, losing ATS in 4 of his last 5 MNF starts.
➤Bills are rolling. 30+ pts scored in their first two games and now extra rest heading into MNF. They are the 12th team to score 30+ pts in Week 1 and 2, and now have extra rest for Week 3 last 20 years. Teams who close -5 or higher Week 3 are 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS – -4 or less, or dog, 0-6 SU/ATS.
➤Trevor Lawrence is 32-22 to the under in his NFL career, 3rd-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 104 QBs), including 23-12 to the under in November or earlier.
Lawrence is .500 or better to the under in all four of his seasons.
➤Lawrence is 24-30 ATS in his career. He's 19-18 ATS with Doug Pederson compared to 5-12 ATS between Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer in his rookie season.
➤Lawrence has lost seven consecutive starts straight up dating back to November of last season, including four straight starts SU as a favorite and four straight starts SU as an underdog.
➤In this road dog spot in primetime, Lawrence has been dangerous, winning twice outright and once losing by just three points.
➤Trevor Lawrence is 8-18 SU and 12-14 ATS on the road. On the moneyline, he's lost a $100 bettor $919 on the road in his career. Of the 96 QBs who have made a start since 2021, Lawrence is the least profitable QB on the road.
➤Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite:
Underdog: 33-26 ATS
Favorite: 30-35 ATS
➤The Bengals were 6.5-pt underdogs last week vs. Chiefs and are now over a TD favorite vs. the Commanders.
They are the first team to go from +6 or higher to -7 or higher in Week 3 or earlier since 2020 and just the 23rd time since 1990.
Those 22 previous teams went 20-2 SU, but just 8-12-2 ATS.
➤The Ravens lost their opener and were big favorites against the Raiders and lost outright. It’s now the Bengals turn.
Favorites of 7 or more who are under .500 SU on the season are now 85-16 SU since 2016, winning by 10.4 PPG (including 39-7 SU last four seasons).
Favorites of more than 7 pts who are under .500 SU on the season are 32-3 SU since 2020 and 68-11 SU since 2016.
➤Over the past two seasons, teams after playing the Chiefs and Ravens are a combined 48-23 SU, good for the 2nd- (BAL) and 4th-most (KC) profitable previous opponents in that span.
➤Jayden Daniels has 26 carries in his 1st two career starts at QB.
Here are the most rushing attempts in 1st two starts as a rookie QB:
2018 Lamar Jackson, 37
2020 Jalen Hurts, 29
2024 Jayden Daniels, 26
➤Uphill climb for an upset. Teams off scoring no TDs who are road dogs are 18-65 SU (22%) since 2016, but 43-38-2 ATS and 56% to the over – Commanders, Panthers, Broncos this week.
➤Rookie QBs are 28-77-1 SU since 2020 playing on the road – when that game is played at night in primetime, they are actually a better bet at 9-13 SU – with 32% of the rookie road wins coming at night.
➤Hopefully for Washington, Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels can break the franchise's bad stretch as underdogs.
Washington has lost 8 consecutive games straight up as dogs, including going 3-11 SU in the spot last season. Since 2019, they have ranked 29th in the NFL in moneyline profitability as dogs.
In Week 1, they lost as dogs and in Week 2 won as favorites.
➤The Commanders have won three straight MNF games SU for the first time since 1976, when they won 5 straight.
Between 2008-19, Washington was 2-16 SU on MNF.
➤Joe Burrow is 8-11 SU vs. AFC North and 26-15-1 SU vs. all other divisions. He’s lost three consecutive games SU vs. teams outside the AFC North for the first time in his NFL career.
➤In 2022, Burrow completed 38% of his attempts 20+ yds downfield. That dipped to 33% in 2023 and in 2024 so far he is 2-5 going 20+ downfield.
➤Burrow bounceback? Burow is 15-6-1 ATS after a SU loss, including 10-2-1 ATS in Sept/Oct.
➤In the first two games of the regular season, Zac Taylor is 1-11 SU as a head coach, while Burrow is 1-9 SU in those games.
Burrow is 33-17-1 SU in game 3 on, with Zac Taylor even over .500 SU game 3 on at 41-37-1 SU. In his 3rd game of the year, Burrow is 3-0-1 SU.
➤In Burrow’s career, he is 6-0-1 ATS after any losing streak (2+ games). He’s covering the spread by 8.4 PPG in those games.
254 QBs have made a start off a “losing streak” (2+ consecutive SU losses) since 2003 – Burrow has the most ATS wins (6) without a loss of any QB.
➤In Burrow’s career, he's 38-22-1 (63%) against the second-half spread in his career. He's 4-8 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
Burrow started his career 8-1 2H ATS in night games but is 0-2 2H ATS since.
➤Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 24 times in his career; he's 19-4-1 ATS, including 1-0 ATS in 2024 after covering vs. Chiefs.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Winless teams have historically been profitable as road 'dogs, covering above 58%.
Matches: NYG, DEN, CAR, JAC
System: Underdogs of 7 pts or less early in the season with a negative ATS margin cover the spread above a 62% rate last 20 years.
Matches: NE, CHI, NYG, MIN, GB, MIA, DAL, ARI, ATL
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System: We are looking to fade undefeated teams SU and ATS who have a big SU margin.
Matches: PHI, DEN, HOU, PIT
System: Bet PST or MST teams playing in EST on the road. They are almost 64% ATS since 2019, including 20-10-2 ATS since start of last season.
Matches: LAC, DEN
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System: Hold your nose. Bet teams 1H ATS after getting blown out.
Matches: CAR, MIA, DAL, LAR
System: Teams off a double-digit loss early season, who play on the road, have been good bets historically.
Matches: CAR, MIA
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