NFL Odds & Picks
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Brandon Anderson: There’s little question the Saints' defense is the most talented unit on the field, but Carolina actually ranks ahead of New Orleans in DVOA on offense, defense and special teams. The Panthers also fit the trend of an underdog in a low-scoring game.
More importantly, the Panthers are also one of our Kitchen Sink teams — both SU and ATS. Kitchen Sink teams are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in division games since 2010. They’re also 30-17 ATS (64%) coming off a loss by seven or fewer points, and teams that hit the 0-2 double are 49-32-1 ATS (61%).
This isn’t just a Kitchen Sink game for this Panthers season. We’re rapidly reaching last-chance saloon for Matt Rhule, Baker Mayfield and everyone else involved here.
Bet on desperation and split one unit on Panthers +2.5 and the ML.
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Derek Farnsworth: The Eagles are playing on a short week, but they are the superior team in all facets of the game.
They have an elite offensive and defensive line, their offense looks explosive with Jalen Hurts at the helm and they might have one of the best secondaries in the NFL (Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson). The Eagles should have success on the ground and through the air.
The Commanders have a beatable secondary and are ranked 30th in defensive adjusted line yards.
Washington has made its living by way of the comeback in the first two weeks, but that's not exactly sustainable. Carson Wentz is putting up stats, but he is still making mistakes.
If the Eagles are able to build a lead, I don't envision the Commanders rallying like they have been.
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John LanFranca: An argument can be made that no offensive line has played as well as Detroit's thus far in the 2022 season. They far outpace the competition in yards before contact in the running game at nearly four yards per carry before the ball carrier meets a defender.
D'Andre Swift (ankle), who Dan Campbell claims is feeling even better this week, is tied for first in the NFL in yards after contact per rush. The dominant play up front has been the catalyst in creating the league's second best rushing unit and eighth best overall offensive team according to DVOA.
This Vikings defense is not up to the task when it comes to slowing down an offense averaging 37 points per game. To make matters worse, starting safety Harrison Smith (concussion) will miss this game and linebacker Eric Kendricks (toe) will likely take the field at less than 100%.
Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell knows the secondary lacks the speed to play man-to-man, and has in turn been very predictable in his coverage schemes — playing either Cover 2 or Cover 3 over 85% of snaps in both games thus far.
With a great running game to lean on, Jared Goff will be comfortable in the pocket against a vanilla defense.
If the Lions defense doesn't hold up in this bounce-back spot for the Vikings offense, this game could develop into a shootout. When looking at all angles of this game, I am most confident in the Lions putting points on the board against the 30th ranked defense (per DVOA).
Play the Lions team total over 23.5 up to 24.
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Derek Farnsworth: Everyone is rushing to bet the Chiefs this week.
Kansas City has looked great in wins over the Cardinals and Chargers, while Indianapolis tied with the Texans and then were shut out by the Jaguars. If we know anything about the NFL, it's that teams are rarely as good or bad as they looked in the previous game.
The Colts have one of the best offensive lines, they have a good coach in Frank Reich, they have the best running back in football and everyone agreed that they made an upgrade at quarterback over the offseason.
I know Matt Ryan has struggled, but he should have Michael Pittman back for this one.
Shaquille Leonard should have the defense ready to roll and the team will naturally play a lot better at home. Give me the home underdog – and I don't even mind a sprinkle on the moneyline.
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Cody Goggin: The Saints will already be playing their third divisional game of the season in as many weeks. In the first two, New Orleans had an uninspiring win over the Falcons and followed that up by being dominated by Tampa Bay’s defense.
New Orleans was able to move the chains against the Buccaneers when it had the ball, but the problem was holding onto said ball.
The Saints had a 60% series conversion rate, but only gained 35.9% of their available yards and had a success rate of 41%. They lost 20-10, but my postgame expected score said that this should have been a 20-13 Saints victory based on ball movement. New Orleans lost the turnover battle on the back of five giveaways, including three interceptions and two fumbles lost.
The Saints defense was excellent against Tom Brady and the Bucs defense, but came up with nothing to show for it. This week against Carolina, New Orleans won’t have the same offensive issues against a much worse defense, while the Carolina offense is not a threat whatsoever.
Carolina ranks 25th in the league in available yards gained so far this season. Against the Giants and Browns, the Panthers had series conversion rates of 65.4% and 63.6%, respectively.
Among quarterbacks that have played 50% of their teams passing snaps this year, Baker Mayfield ranks 28th out of 29 players in PFF passing grade at 49.1.
The Saints' first couple of games didn’t quite go their way, but I think that this is the spot for them to get back on track.
You can currently get the better team at -2.5 and stay under that key number of 3. My number has the Saints by 6.5 on a neutral field, so I would bet this up to 4.
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Derek Farnsworth: It's to the point where the books can't make the spread big enough for me to not want to bet on the Bills. They might have the best offense AND the best defense in football.
The scary part is that they are still playing without Tre'Davious White, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. The offense with Josh Allen looks unstoppable and the defense can get pressure on the quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa has played great in his first two starts this season, but he has struggled under pressure in his career. Additionally, his massive outing in Week 2 was bolstered by an amazing game script and the fact that the Ravens were missing three of their best players in the secondary.
The Bills have an opportunity to come out and make a statement to the league and that's exactly what I expect to happen on Sunday.
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Tanner McGrath: I’m not the biggest buyer of the Raiders. There are problems in the secondary and on the offensive line.
But I am the biggest seller of the Titans. They’re the least efficient team in the NFL considering both offensive and defensive production.
The Titans rank 32nd in PFF’s pass blocking grades. How do you think they’ll hold up against Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones?
The Titans rank 31st in DVOA allowed to No. 1 wide receivers. How do you think they’ll hold up against Derek Carr and Davante Adams?
You could bet on a Mike Vrabel underdog bounce-back game. But this isn’t necessarily an underdog spot as much as it is a coin flip. And Vrabel is 2-7 ATS when the spread is between -2 and +2 and 0-4 as a two-point-or-fewer dog.
Give me the Raiders at anything under a field goal.
