Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 115-63-5 (64.2%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
Last week, the unlucky teams in the four Luck Rankings matchups went 2-2 ATS, but if you followed the Week 2 Luck Trends section of last week's writeup, you'll notice there were significant home/road splits for unlucky teams. The splits held up again this year, as the unlucky road teams went 2-0 ATS, while the unlucky home teams went 0-2 ATS.
Technically this week, we also add in Luck Unders if a game has a Luck Total below -5. However, no games meet the threshold this week.
Instead, we're fortunate to have seven([) luck-based matchups to take a look at for Week 3.
Weeks 3 & 4 Luck Trends
Unlike Week 2, there are no home/road splits to consider for Weeks 3 and 4, as both home and away unluckty teams meeting our criteria seem to cover at about the same rate in Week 3.
For Week 3, these unlucky teams are 23-10-0 (69.7%) ATS, with almost identical home and road cover percentages. Similarly, in Week 4 unlucky teams are 11-5 (68.8%) ATS, meaning between Weeks 3 and 4, we have a 49-game sample size of unlucky teams going 34-15-0 (69.4%) ATS.
In other words, we can feel pretty good about the luck factor for these two weeks. So while the Luck Rankings shouldn't be your only tool in the toolbox for handicapping games, with nearly a 70% hit rate in Weeks 3 and 4, you should at least give strong consideration the Luck Rankings in process these next two weeks.
