We have you covered with NFL Week 3 picks.
Our experts are all over this early slate. We have props, spreads and totals covered, including three picks from Titans vs. Browns and Falcons vs. Lions.
Check out our favorite NFL Week 3 picks and player props below.
NFL Week 3 Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Titans vs. Browns
By Simon Hunter
The sky is falling in Cleveland. Everyone has already given up on this team after just two weeks with Nick Chubb out and Deshaun Watson still not at the level we were accustomed to seeing him at.
Now, here comes the gamblers' favorite darling, the Titans, who are 2-0 against the spread (ATS) to start the season. This is a great spot to back this Browns team.
It's a perfect matchup for Watson to get right against a terrible Titans secondary, and you can't get a better matchup for this Browns defensive line since Tennessee has given up eight sacks in two games this season. The Browns match up perfectly against Tennessee's biggest weakness.
Give me the Browns at home in a get-right spot when the whole world is betting the other side. Sportsbooks will be rooting for Tennessee since this line hasn't moved much, but Cleveland is where road 'dogs go to die.
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Titans vs. Browns
Through two full NFL games, the Browns defense has yet to allow an opposing offense to run a play inside its red zone. The Cleveland defense has been by far the best down-to-down unit in the league once you exclude turnovers, as evidenced by the chart below from rbsdm.com/stats.
The offense is an entirely different story. The power run game and elite run-blocking offensive line have been the identity of Cleveland’s offense for years, and the loss of Nick Chubb clearly impacts that. Jerome Ford is a decent back, but you have to expect a decline in rushing success rate and efficiency with him as the lead ball carrier.
Then there is the Deshaun Watson problem. He’s 26th in Success Rate, 27th in sack rate, 26th in ANY/A and 30th in EPA/CPOE composite through two weeks. It’s not as if the Browns faced two elite defenses either. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are both solid units, but neither looked elite in their other game this season that wasn’t against Watson.
Both of these defensive fronts should control the game. If you can get Tennessee over a field goal, they’re a clear buy in this matchup. Now that the line is down to three, I could only look to the under.
The Tennessee defensive personnel and coaching continue to be the most underrated unit in the NFL and a major reason why Mike Vrabel has a winning record straight up as an underdog in his career.
Our Luck Rankings show Cleveland to be a play in this game because the Browns rank as one of the unluckiest teams in the league following an extremely misleading Monday Night Football scoreline.
Instead, I’ll be targeting the under on Sunday. Browns/Steelers went over on Monday because of two defensive touchdowns, but this game should be played at a snail’s pace, and neither offense has shown much through two weeks.
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Titans vs. Browns
By Sam Farley
The Titans have one of the very best running backs in the game with Derrick Henry, but it's clear after two weeks that they've drafted another talented RB in Tyjae Spears.
The former Tulane standout passes the eye test and leaps off the screen with his dynamic movement, quick cuts and vision. He's not going to leapfrog Henry on the depth chart anytime soon, but there's value to be had on the third-round pick in this year's draft.
Broncos vs. Dolphins
As frustrating as this Broncos season has been to start, the offense has actually moved the ball pretty well. Denver ranks third in Success Rate, and this talented pass defense can compete with the high-flying Dolphins, especially if Jaylen Waddle is limited or out and Pat Surtain can chase Tyreek Hill around all game.
It's not just the Kitchen Sink trends, either. Week 3 road underdogs of seven or less are 60% ATS, and teams playing their home opener in Week 3 like Miami are 20-36-2 ATS (36%). Sean Payton has been outstanding after a loss (63% ATS) and as an underdog (61%), and Russell Wilson has been just as good (60% and 68%) in those spots.
Trust the barrage of trends and bet the Broncos — and the trends say sprinkle the moneyline too at +230.
Pick: Broncos +6.5
Broncos vs. Dolphins
By Simon Hunter
I love backing teams in Week 3 that people hate. If you have bet the Broncos or are a fan of this team, you know that they've been terribly disappointing and had some bad luck to start the season. Going 0-2 against the spread (ATS) and straight-up (SU) is not how Sean Payton envisioned this season starting.
People want to blame Russell Wilson, but he’s looked great in Payton's system with the fourth-highest passer rating (108.5) in the NFL with a solid stat line of 485 passing yards, five passing TDs and one pick. It’s the defense that has really let down Denver, surprisingly.
So, we have a team that has lost two games by a total of three points playing the most hyped team in the NFL after two weeks.
Broncos vs. Dolphins
Books still aren't giving Tua Tagovailoa and this passing offense enough respect. Tagovailoa averages 297 passing yards a game under Mike McDaniel when he plays at least half the snaps, and he's gone over 264.5 in 10 of the 14 (71%). Denver ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA, including 28th against the pass. Now, the line has moved down to 257.5 as of Saturday afternoon.
Don't get too crazy with escalator bets, but you might consider 300+ yards at +225 (Caesars). Tagovailoa has at least 295 yards in exactly half of those 14 McDaniel games, so the odds are in our favor.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 257.5 Passing Yards
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Falcons vs. Lions
Not only did Detroit lose its home opener to Seattle, but Lions injuries are seriously piling up. Running back David Montgomery was carted off in the loss, defenders Justin Houston and CJ Gardner-Johnson are both now on injured reserve, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has turf toe, and offensive lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai is likely out for Week 3.
The Lions had real issues stopping the run last season, and while they’ve done well through two weeks, Sunday will be a real test for this group against the physical Falcons power offense.
Desmond Ridder doesn’t look like an NFL starting quarterback, but how big is the gap between these two teams overall? In my view, it’s not enough for the Lions to be laying more than a field goal. Arthur Smith’s scheme does an excellent job of hiding Ridder better than almost any scheme in the NFL.
If St. Brown is limited at all, the Lions offense is quickly down to some pretty mediocre receiving options to surround Goff.
I bet the Falcons opener at +4.5 and would bet them down to 3.5.
Pick: Falcons +3.5
Falcons vs. Lions
By Sam Farley
The Falcons and Lions meet in a game featuring the two highest-drafted running backs from this past draft. I'm backing Jahmyr Gibbs to have a big game, and I think he'll find the end zone and score his first NFL touchdown.
David Montgomery is doubtful to play, which should see an increase in Gibbs' workload. Even if Montgomery suits up, we don't need to be worried.
Gibbs has looked dynamic in both the ground and passing games with his athleticism, movement and vision shining. His workload increased last week and it will again here. Back him to open his account against an overrated Falcons defense.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+107)
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Falcons vs. Lions
Ridder started to use his legs a bit more last week against the Packers with 10 carries for 39 yards. He gets a matchup vs. the Lions who gave up the most yards on the ground to opposing QBs last season. While that stat might be a little inflated due to facing Fields twice, it's also due to running a lot of man defense, which is solid for a running QB.
Saints vs. Packers
You know how good the Packers are at Lambeau, so just take the better team at home.
Green Bay does look like the better team. Love has been terrific, even missing his top weapons, and the Packers should be able to run the ball and make life easy on their QB. Green Bay is still undervalued in the division, too, at +250 (bet365). FTN makes the Packers 51% to win the NFC North, so if you like them here, you should play the division as well. I grabbed them +400 before the season, and I'm adding to my position.
This is just trusting my preseason read. I like the Packers and like what I've seen so far. Jordan Love has shown growth going through his progressions and making decisions, and I haven't been particularly impressed with the Saints eking out wins over the Titans and Panthers.
Play the -118 ML instead of Packers -1.5 (-110). Tie gets our money back, and a one-point win is a win — but both of those bets lose at -1.5. Eight cents is a small price to pay for that security.
Pick: Packers ML (-118)
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Chargers vs. Vikings
These teams have combined for four one-score losses this season — yes, that's every game. Chargers games have finished within seven points in 16 of 20 games (80%) since the start of last season. The Vikings have played 14 of 20 one-score games (70%) over that same stretch. Over the past four seasons, the Vikings (37) and Chargers (36) rank first and second in one-score games.
Every Chargers and Vikings fan in the world knows this game is coming down to some goofy, last-second ending that will ruin their lives on Sunday afternoon. Might as well bet on it, right?
You may have to get creative with how to bet this. The easiest way is a DraftKings Same Game Parlay of Chargers +7.5 and Vikings +7.5, which technically means we win on a tie, too. Other books offer Winning Margin, or you might have to play Chargers to win by 1-6 and Vikings to do the same, both around +300.
Our overtime guru Nick Giffen has also given the thumbs up on +1420 odds on this game going to overtime at PointsBet, if you really want to lean in.
Pick: Winner By 7 or Fewer Points
