The late-afternoon slate today doesn't present the sexiest matchups, but that doesn't mean we can't find some NFL picks.
We have one game with Andy Dalton starting, and the other two have double-digit spreads in matchups that appear to be lopsided. Our betting analysts have two bets to make on totals and two player props.
Check out our NFL Week 3 late-slate picks below.
NFL Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Panthers vs. Seahawks
By Billy Ward
Through two games this season, Seattle has allowed each of its first two opponent's to score more than 30 points. While the Seahawks have faced solid offenses in the Rams and Lions, those teams combined for 44 in their two other games while scoring a collective 61 against Seattle.
The point: This Seahawks defense isn't good, particularly against the pass. Seattle ranks 31st in DVOA and 30th in yards per pass play allowed. That wouldn't have been an issue with the rookie Bryce Young under center since he has a 4.2 yards-per-attempt average so far in his young career.
However, Young is out with an injury, and Carolina is going with Andy Dalton under center. While he's not exactly a superstar, Dalton is a serviceable NFL passer who should be able to find some success against the Seahawks' porous secondary.
If Carolina can get anything going, this one has the potential to turn into a track meet. I have no concern with the Seattle passing attack moving the ball through the air. The Panthers' pass defense looks good by the numbers, but it has faced run-first teams in the Falcons and Saints.
Seattle has also, wisely, pivoted to a more aggressive offensive approach in 2023. The Seahawks have arguably the league's best wide receiver trio in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So far, they rank third in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE). Seattle could get us most of the way to the total on their own before taking their foot off the gas.
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Panthers vs. Seahawks
Now is the time to buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba stock.
The slot receiver suffered a fractured wrist just over a month ago and surprised many by suiting up for Week 1. As expected, not only returning from injury but it being his first year in the league, Smith-Njigba’s workload has gradually increased.
JSN played just 30 snaps in Week 1’s loss to the Rams, a number that increased by 10 in Week 2. And in limited action, Seattle has made it a point to get the ball in his hands. Smith-Njigba has 11 targets through two games.
Sunday is a great matchup for the rookie receiver against the Carolina secondary. Smith-Njigba will likely be guarded by Troy Hill and Jeremy Chinn, two below-average corners in the slot.
Over the last three seasons, Hill has received a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 64 or lower. He has allowed over 70% of the balls thrown his way to be completed for 11.3 yards per reception. While Chinn had a great Week 2, this is a player that last season finished with a PFF grade of 58.0 and allowed an 80% reception rate (10.7 yards per reception).
With DK Metcalf banged up — he is expected to play (ribs) — we could very well see Seattle look to work in the explosive Smith-Njigba. While he’s been targeted on screens and in the short game, we have yet to see him really take that next step.
I’m expecting his snap count to increase as well as his target share, as the Seahawks look to get him involved. His Y/RR numbers are similar to Tyler Lockett, yet he’s priced 20 yards shorter —not to mention JSN is more explosive.
Bears vs. Chiefs
Mahomes has some decent legs, so I don't see why the books keep putting his rushing yards prop so low. Mahomes has hit the over at this number in 13 of his last 20 games, including the playoffs, and he's averaged over 20 rushing yards per game in each of the last three seasons.
Mahomes has 75 rushing yards through two games this year, and he gets a matchup vs. the Bears that isn't good this season. Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield took off several times against them and last season, the Bears were slightly below average at allowed yards on the ground to opposing QBs while facing no running QBs outside of Daniel Jones, Trey Lance, and Josh Allen, against whom they gave up 163 yards.
This line rose on Saturday to 20.5, which is the highest I'd go with it.
Cowboys vs. Cardinals
Dallas has had back-to-back dominant wins, and there’s nothing to suggest that this won’t be a third consecutive rout. The Cowboys are elite front runners because the offense is excellent at ball control and the pass rush is dominant.
The Jets broke off one big explosive play on a broken tackle and run from Garrett Wilson, but the Jets did nothing else on offense. Dallas had the best pass rush in the NFL by pressure rate last year, and the Cowboys continued their dominance into the new season.
Arizona was stunningly efficient in the first 2 1/2 quarters on offense against the Giants, but I’m not buying much from that performance heading into this contest. The market overreacted to that good offensive showing from Arizona, and now we get to play against points in this matchup. Another dominant win for Dallas as they get to 3-0 with New England coming into town next week.
I’ll throw in an additional bet for this one: Dak Prescott hasn’t thrown an interception yet, though he should have thrown one to Sauce Gardner. Dallas might be the best team in the NFL, and the Cowboys QB is top two in EPA per play efficiency. He’s worth a few dollars for MVP.
