NFL Week 3 Odds & Predictions for All 4 Sunday Late-Slate Games

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Ravens vs.

Patriots

Phillip Kall: The Patriots want to play in low-scoring physical games so they can rely on their defense and running game. This allows them to stay on schedule and not have to push the ball downfield to their typically overmatched receivers.

The Ravens, on the other hand, feel like any play can blow the game open. This explosiveness is even more valuable against the Patriots who lack that burst ability. Even if the Patriots are controlling this game and playing their brand of football, it is hard to imagine Baltimore ever being more than one big play from flipping the script.

A field goal spread is a complete shock to me in this game. My only thought is this must be an overreaction to what happened last week against Miami. We saw New England have a good outing on offense against a T.J. Watt-less Steelers team and still managed to score just 17 points. As long as the Ravens' defense doesn’t blow coverage, they should be a tougher challenge.

The only question mark for Baltimore is the status of Jackson's elbow. Fortunately, in what is unlikely to be a shootout, this matters much less. Plus we saw last week he still is a menace using his legs.

This spread looks too good to be true but I am going to be hammering it. Trust Baltimore to make up for their solo quarter of bad football and take down the Patriots.

FanDuel Quickslip: Ravens -2.5 | Bet to -5.5

Chiefs vs.

Colts

Anthony Dabbundo: The lookahead line for this game was Kansas City -3 or -3.5, depending on which book you looked at. The line opened at Chiefs -6.5 and despite an overwhelming majority of the public betting Kansas City, the line has been met with consistent resistance any time bookmakers moved the Chiefs up. It briefly hit seven and was hit down. Then it dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 once it was announced that Pittman and Pierce would be back for Indianapolis.

The trends on winless teams in Week 3 are super strong. Teams that are winless  in Week 3 and are an underdog of less than a touchdown have covered the spread 61% of the time since 2005. As bad as Indianapolis looked in the first two weeks of the season, the Colts were still a clear division favorite just two weeks ago. A bad red zone showing in Houston and another shocking display in Jacksonville shouldn't override your priors on the Colts as much as the market has.

For example, here's a shocking trend: Since 2015, the Colts are 1-13-1 against the spread vs. the Jaguars and 57-42-3 (57.6%) against everyone else. The week after playing the Jaguars, the Colts cover the spread 72.7% of the time in the last 20 years. Simply put, divisional matchups are weird.

 From a buy-low, sell-high perspective, this is a classic Colts spot. Even though the matchup isn't that good for the Colts secondary to slow down Mahomes, it should be a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and an improved Colts offense with its weapons back.

Hold your nose and bet the Colts at +5 or better at home.

FanDuel Quickslip: Colts +5.5 | Bet to +5

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Lions vs.

Vikings

Kody Malstrom: With both teams having a similar roster blueprint — an elite offense coupled with a horrific defense — so we may see points scored in bunches.

The Vikings' sole defensive strength is in their pass rush, which is an area we may see negated against the Lions' elite offensive line.

Should Minnesota be unable to pressure Goff and force him into his typical boneheaded mistakes, then we may see the Lions offense cook once again. The Lions enter this game tied for second in the NFL in points scored.

On the other end, the Vikings should have no issue moving the ball down the field with their fast-paced, air-raid attack. They will test the Lions secondary that has yet to show any signs of life. Look for Jefferson to have a monster game making plays in the open field.

I joked Lions overs were going to be an auto play every week in Week 1 and so far, it has not shown to be going away anytime soon. I'll be betting the over at anything better than 52 up to 54.5.

FanDuel Quickslip: Over 52 | Bet to 54.5

Saints vs.

Panthers

Dylan Wilkerson:We can expect this 1 p.m. ET game to get off to a slow start.

The Panthers defense has proven that they can stop the pass and apply pressure. On the other hand, I am not confident enough in this Saints’ offense to take them, or any sort of over in a game they are involved in.

I'm taking this first half under, so let’s hope we never see this game on NFL RedZone.

Pick: Saints 1H Team Total Under 10 | Bet to Under 9.5

Texans vs.

Bears

Phillip Kall: I wish there was more to this one, but it boils down to two awful offenses facing off.

After Week 1, prognosticators thought the Bears played conservatively due to the weather. After Week 2, it was very clear that the conservative style will be their bread and butter no matter the situation. Unfortunately, this conservative style has guided them to the second-fewest yards per drive.

While Chicago chooses to play conservatively, Houston has at least shown a willingness to trust its young quarterback. The team even has the 10th highest pass/run split in the NFL, per Team Rankings. The problem is they simply do not have the talent to move the ball effectively. This has left them as the only team with fewer yards per drive than the Bears.

Both of these teams have shown an ineptitude on offense and the ability to step up on defense when it matters most. The spread is under a field goal, so if you are confident in one team, that is an angle to take. However, I think it will be a tight ball game, and I will trust neither team to not make a mistake and blow the win and/or cover.

Instead, I will trust both teams to do what they have shown through the first two weeks: struggle to move the ball and force field goals instead of touchdowns. That is why I’m taking the under in this matchup.

FanDuel Quickslip: Under 39.5 | Bet to 38

Eagles vs.

Commanders

Sam Farley: For all the talk of this explosive Eagles offense, the football world has been quite quiet about Dallas Goedert. Hurts has put himself into the MVP conversation, and Brown looks like the difference-maker, but it's Goedert doing a lot of the lifting.

The tight end put up 60 receiving yards in Week 1 and 82 in Week 2, all of this on eight receptions. Impressively, 105 of his 142 yards have come after the catch. He's turning into a monster before our eyes, and the bookies haven't got the memo yet.

His receiving line for Sunday currently sits at 47.5 yards at most books, but it was 46.5 at BetRivers as of 1 p.m. ET on Saturday. You can be bullish on Goedert covering that.

Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Bet to 49.5

Bills vs.

Dolphins

Landon Silinsky: With all of the defensive injuries to both teams, it's really hard to see either offense struggling in this spot with all the firepower on both sides. We know both of these coaches do not like to run the ball much, leading to more total plays run and clock stoppages stemming from incompletions.

The game being played in Miami is just a boost, as it's less likely Buffalo blows them out in their home building, which could lead to a back-and-forth affair with tons of explosive plays downfield.

The Bills are going to have serious trouble containing both Hill and Waddle, and there is obviously no stopping Allen and this freight train offense, so give me the over here.

FanDuel Quickslip: Over 52.5 | Bet to 53

Bengals vs.

Jets

The Great Foosini: There are a few angles I love exploiting here in this matchup. The most obvious is buying low and selling high on two teams who should be headed in different directions moving forward. The former is historically profitable in the NFL, where teams are 37-23 (62%) ATS in Week 3 since 2010 after starting the seasons 0-2 SU and ATS.

Second, we have a corollary to last year after the Jets beat the Bengals at home and went on to get crushed by the Colts the following week. This is a one-game sample, but the Jets have not changed much outside of a few rookie additions, and we can expect this young squad to follow a similar pattern in line with historical performance.

Finally, looking again at last year, the Bengals came into the matchup as an 11.5-point favorite. Their stock rose as the season progressed and entered the 2022-2023 NFL season, while the Jets remained relatively the same.

This game currently sits at Bengals -6 in the market, which begs the question: what changed to make this line five points lower? The Bengals did statistically overachieve last year, but justifying a 5.5-point move toward the Jets seems like a significant overreaction to this year's performances.

It will pain me to sit in MetLife and watch this unfold, but I have this as a 7-10-point win for the Bengals. That said, monitor the line as it could change heading into Sunday. Ideally we can snag the Bengals at -5.5, but I like this up to -6.5

FanDuel Quickslip: Bengals -6 | Bet to -6.5

Raiders vs.

Titans

Blake Krass: The Titans' offense has been dismal so far. The offensive line gets no push and now they are missing their three-time Pro Bowl left tackle. The Raiders' front seven is stacked and should force Ryan Tannehill to make more throws than he is comfortable making.

If the Raiders can simply avoid turnovers their offense should be fine. If it comes down to the little things — like field position or a made field goal — the Raiders are eighth in special teams DVOA, while the Titans are 30th.

I really think the Raiders are the much better team. They have an edge at quarterback, offensive line and defense. Again, as long as they can avoid the turnover, they should win comfortably.

FanDuel Quickslip: Raiders -1.5 | Bet to -3

Jaguars vs.

Chargers

John LanFranca:There is a reason Brandon Staley has not thrived as a favorite in the betting markets. The Chargers offensive philosophy is not conducive to putting teams away when they are laying points. Since Staley has taken over as head coach, this team is 4-7 (36.3%) against the spread as a favorite of three or more points.

Since 2010, road underdogs of 10 points or fewer in Week 3, who are taking on an opponent that has covered the number in each of its first two games, are an impressive 21-15-1 (58.3%). In the past three seasons, teams in this specific spot are getting bettors to the proverbial ticket window at a 66.6% rate (8-4).

Every year there is a team that goes from worse to first in its division and the Jaguars are that team in 2022. Take the points with the NFL’s most improved defense.

If Daniel is announced as the starter, play this game at Jaguars +3 or better. If Herbert is active, only play the Jaguars at +4.5 or better.

FanDuel Quickslip: Jaguars +3.5

Bet to +3 if Herbert is out, +4.5 if Herbert plays

Packers vs.

Buccaneers

Anthony Dabbundo: There are times that I believe injuries are overpriced in NFL games because of the narratives that set up around them. Also, there are not that many non-QB players who truly move the market. With that being said, a cluster injury situation like the one in Tampa is a clear exception.

This is an example — like the Colts last week without their top two receiving options — where I'm not sure how you can clearly and accurately measure the impact of the losses. Neither offense has played particularly well through two weeks, and scoring in the red zone is going to be especially difficult with the run games struggling.

Leonard Fournette is also questionable for this game, and even if he does play, he is one of the worst backs in the NFL in Rushing Yards over Expected, per NextGen Stats.

It's hard to see how either offense is consistently scoring the ball. While matchups with totals this low often feature bad and turnover-prone QBs, I like that this game has two excellent ball control and protection quarterbacks.

You're not going to see Brady and Rodgers giving away the ball frequently. I liked Green Bay at +2.5 or better, but the value in the number is gone now. Instead, I'd play under 42 but would not go any lower than the current market price. 

Pick: Under 42 | Bet to 42

Falcons vs.

Seahawks

Blake Krass: The Falcons are 2-0 ATS this season with close losses to two good teams (Saints and Rams).  Meanwhile, the Seahawks were on the right side of terrible coaching and turnover luck in Week 1 and followed it up with a weak performance in Week 2.

The Falcons are the better team overall and the Seahawks don't have the personnel to exploit their weaknesses. The Falcons will utilize the explosive play to take care of business against Seattle.

Atlanta's offense is very underrated while the Seahawks still have a higher public perception because of their fluke win over Denver. The Falcons should be able to go on the road and pick up their first win of the season.

FanDuel Quickslip: Falcons +1 | Bet to Falcons -2.5

Rams vs.

Cardinals

Cody Goggin: Both teams should be able to move the ball in this game. Arizona ranks seventh in the league in pace (seconds per play) while the Rams rank 11th, which means putting points on the board should be even easier.

In the last three seasons, four of the six regular-season games that the Rams and Cardinals have played have gone over 50 points. In fact, the only game between these two teams in the last five matchups that didn’t have over 50 points scored was the Week 17 matchup of 2020 that saw Kyler Murray leave early with an injury and John Wolford start under center for an injured Jared Goff.

When these teams have been at full strength, there has been an average of 54.4 points scored over those other five games in the last three years.

My personal model projects the total for this game at 50.4 points, which is over the current total of 48.5. The duo of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson will have a great opportunity to put up big numbers against this depleted Arizona secondary, and the Cardinals offense will also be capable of striking back to potentially keep this game close.

I’ll be taking the over at 48.5 points and would play this up to 49.5 points, giving about a point buffer between that number and my projection.

FanDuel Quickslip: Over 48.5 | Bet to 49.5