NFL Week 3 Odds, Predictions: Stuckey’s Picks & Previews for Sunday Late Slate

Historically, Week 2 of the NFL season has always been one of my favorites to bet due to overreactions in the market after results from the opening weekend.

However, I didn't see as much of that as usual last week and I actually went back to the well with a number of teams that treated me right in Week 1.

That's not the case this upcoming weekend, as I do think the market has overreacted a bit to the performances of a handful of teams over the first two weeks, which I'll touch on below when I share my thoughts on all 14 Sunday afternoon games.

In my opinion, adjusting power ratings this early in the season is as much art as it is science. You want to make your biggest adjustments early in the season, but you also don't want to overreact. It's a fine line.

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Where Are the Points?

I'm also interested in watching the overall Week 3 scoring after substantially suppressed outputs so far. Unders have gone 22-10 (68.7%) through two weeks, the highest such rate since 1996.

Teams have only scored an average of 42.8 points per game with a median of 40.5. For reference, last season's average was 46.

The next logical question is, why? Well, for one, it's a tiny sample size of only 32 games with an abundance of noise. Similar low scoring occurred during the first two weeks of 2019 (average 43.5, median 41.5) before eventually finishing with a full-season average of 46 points. Unders finished 13-3 in Week 2 of 2019, but went just 6-10 the following week.

I do have a few other possible explanations. Fewer key players participate in a reduced preseason, which hurts rhythm, timing and offensive line continuity. Defenses also have increased their focus on taking away explosive plays with more two-high looks.

There's also an inordinate amount of teams with new quarterbacks, including quite a few backups starting, in addition to an abnormally high quantity of wide receiver injuries.

But again, it's just a two-week sample size in a league with increased scoring variance as a result of more teams going for it on fourth down. If I had to guess, overs will have success this week.

Can't Touch This

Lastly, before I share my thoughts on all 14 Sunday afternoon matchups, I wanted to touch on the added offseason report of the NFL putting emphasis on illegal contact penalties.

Through two weeks, officials have called 15 illegal contact penalties compared to only 36 last season. In theory, that should provide a boost to offenses if this added emphasis persists.

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Ravens vs.

Patriots

This is not a great spot for the Ravens after a heartbreaking loss, particularly with the Bills on deck. However, Baltimore does match up well with the Patriots, who lack the speed Miami used to exploit the Ravens' linebackers and corners.

I love what I saw from Lamar Jackson against the blitz last week, which was a major question coming into the year. He threw for 150 yards with three touchdowns against the blitz for the first time in his career — and he did it in the first half without his starting left tackle and running back.

Ultimately, Baltimore's lingering injury questions on both sides of the ball will keep me away from a spread that looks fair given the circumstances.

Notable Trend: Over the past five seasons, Jackson is the most profitable QB against the first-half spread at 36-18-1 (66.7%). Additionally, John Harbaugh is 140-93-8 (60.0%) in the first half ATS. That's the highest return on investment (ROI) among all coaches since he arrived in Baltimore.

Chiefs vs.

Colts

The Colts are one of my favorite bets on the board, especially if you can snag +7 (up to -120) prior to kickoff. If not, I still like +6 or better.

This is a classic buy/low — sell/high spot after the Colts stumbled out of the gates with a tie and shutout loss against the Texans and Jaguars, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 2-0 but I haven't been impressed as some have been. They destroyed a decimated Cardinals roster then got extremely fortunate against the Chargers, who dropped two easy interceptions and had questionable flags thrown after two others.

Expect a peak effort from the Colts, who should get back their defensive leader Shaq Leonard in addition to two starting receivers, Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman, who they desperately need.

Indianapolis should move the ball with ease on the ground, sustaining drives with Jonathan Taylor against a suspect Kansas City defense. And while Mahomes torched Gus Bradley's defense twice last season, head coach Frank Reich hinted at making some defensive tweaks this week.

That element of surprise could work in their favor — similar to the 2019 matchup between these two teams in Arrowhead. The Colts pulled off a shocking upset after coming out with a completely different defensive scheme.

Some other tidbits to consider:

• To dispel a popular narrative, Andy Reid is just 6-9 against the spread (ATS) with 9-11 days between games.
• Mahomes is just 10-14-1 ATS as a touchdown-plus favorite.
• Teams that started winless and cover-less through two weeks have gone 46-28 since 2003 (62.1%) against teams that haven’t.
• Underdogs are 41-24-3 (63.1%) after a shutout since 2003.
• Teams off a shutout loss as 3+ point underdogs in non-divisional games are 52-14-2 (78.8%) ATS since 1990.

It might be difficult to pull the trigger on the Colts right now, but it's a week-to-week league. Chew on this: winless home teams catching 6+ in Week 3 after a road game have gone 4-0 ATS. Two won outright and two others lost on a last second-field goal. It's a meaningless sample size, but I distinctly remember nobody wanting any part of one of those pups.

Notable Trend: Under Reich, the Colts are 9-3-1 ATS (75%) as underdogs of more than a field goal.

Lions vs.

Vikings

I think the Vikings are cheap here after getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, everybody's new darling Lions are getting a bit too much love after two home covers.

Last year, the Vikings were favored by 10 at home even with running back Dalvin Cook sidelined with an injury. Yes, the Lions have improved, but so have the Vikings due to improved defensive health and a competent coaching staff.

The Detroit defense has a few intriguing rookie pieces, but this is still an atrocious unit. It's also a great matchup for Kirk Cousins in terms of scheme. I think the Vikings laying six or better with one of the biggest home-field advantages in the league.

Hopefully the Vikings can build a lead and hold on to it, preventing Dan Campbell from improving his remarkable 13-6 ATS as a head coach.

Notable Trend: Kirk Cousins owns a 34-21 (61.8%) career ATS mark after a SU loss, including 20-10 after failing to cover by a touchdown-plus.

Saints vs.

Panthers

This game is an ideal teaser piece since it allows you to cross both key thresholds of three and seven with a very low game total.

Notable Trend: The Panthers are 0-9 ATS over their past nine games. Over the past 20 seasons, only one other team (2015 Falcons) has lost nine consecutive games ATS.

Texans vs.

Bears

I have absolutely no interest in the Lovie Smith Revenge Bowl. However, I will say the Texans are an ideal teaser piece since you can cross both three and seven in a game with a very low total.

Notable Trend: This will mark the first time Davis Mills has been set as less than a six-point underdog in 14 career starts.

Eagles vs.

Commanders

The Eagles have not disappointed all of those hyping them up in the preseason. Philadelphia is a legitimate threat to win the NFC.

Nonetheless, this line looks like a bit of an overreaction after last week's beatdown of Minnesota. I'm not sure Philadelphia deserves to be priced as an elite team after just two games. Remember, this lookahead line sat at around a pick 'em just last week.

Do I trust Carson Wentz to methodically move down the field mistake-free against the zone-heavy Philly defense? Not really. Do I trust this Washington defense? Also, not really.

That said, if this thing touches Eagles -7, I will be obliged to play the Commanders. This is still a road divisional game for Philly on a short week, albeit just a stone's throw down I-95.

Notable Trend: Road divisional favorites of three-plus in September are just 37-56-1 ATS (39.8%) since 2003.

Bills vs.

Dolphins

If you are looking for a potential over this week, this one fits the bill.

After playing on Monday, Buffalo travels down to Miami on a short week with truncated preparation time for a brand new (and explosive) Dolphins offense.

Buffalo, already down star cornerback Tre White, could also be without its three other veteran starting defensive backs. Cornerback Dane Jackson and both super-reliable starting safeties (Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde) all didn't practice on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Bills offense should cook as usual, especially against Miami. During their current seven-game winning streak over the 'Fins, they have averaged 36.9 points, reaching at least 31 in five of the six.

It's an advantageous matchup for Josh Allen, who thrives against the blitz and can create plenty of explosive plays against a Miami secondary that's also not at full strength. This Miami defense also benefited from facing many backup quarterbacks last year. Anybody with a pulse basically reached 30 in 2021.

If you like the Dolphins in this spot, I almost prefer the ML over the spread with such a high total. Plus, when the Bills are good, they're really good. Each of their past 14 victories have come by at least 12 points.

Along those same lines, they boast a 15-2 ATS record in the second half when leading at halftime. On the flip side, the Dolphins actually own the league's longest active streak of home wins when leading at the half with 25.

Notable Trend: The Bills are covering and winning games by an average margin of 20+ points. Only four other teams have accomplished that feat through two games since 2003. All four failed to cover in Week 3.

Bengals vs.

Jets

I could see an over in play here, as well. Joe Flacco has been more than serviceable and the Jets are playing fast.

The Bengals offense will also eventually break out of their current funk, but I need to see this brand new offensive line (and Joe Burrow) perform a bit better before laying my money down on Cincy.

Notable Trend: Over the past 15 years, the Bengals are the first team to be favored after losing their first two games as touchdown-plus favorites. Teams that have failed to cover in back-to-back games by an average margin of at least 10 points have hit at a 56% clip over a sample size of 644 games since 2003. This also applies to the Rams.

Raiders vs.

Titans

I like the Raiders in a battle of two winless teams. I'm much lower than the market on the Titans, who also have a short week after playing in Buffalo on Monday night.

Meanwhile, the Raiders could easily have a 2-0 record after losing a toss-up on the road against the Chargers and then taking their foot off the gas against Arizona when leading 20-0 at the half.

This also sets up as a fairly favorable matchup for Vegas. The Raiders run defense has excelled this year, which bodes well against a Titans rush offense that ranks in the bottom three in efficiency and explosiveness. I just can't envision a herculean effort from Derrick Henry, who doesn't look as explosive as he once did.

The Titans also likely lost starting left tackle Taylor Lewan to injury from an already suspect and young unit. His replacement, Dennis Daley, allowed more pressures in relief last week than Lewan had over the previous nine games. The Raiders' elite edge rush can take advantage, while Tennessee lacks the talent on the outside to fully exploit a vulnerable secondary.

Additionally, the Titans lost their best edge rusher, Harold Landry, to injury right before the season. His absence will be felt against a subpar Raiders offensive line.

Carr, who struggles under pressure, should have plenty of time to exploit mouth-watering matchups on the outside against an extremely inexperienced secondary. Davonte Adams should have a massive day at the office.

Notable Trend: Mike Vrabel is 18-7 (72%) ATS as an underdog of three or more points but just 15-26-1 (36.6%) ATS in all other games.

Jaguars vs.

Chargers

Nothing really to say here with the uncertainty surrounding the health of Justin Herbert. Easy pass.

Notable Trend: Teams on 10 or more days rest after a divisional loss, like the Chargers, have gone a horrid 3-42-1 ATS (35.4%) at home the following week, including 12-29 ATS (29.3%) as favorites.

Packers vs.

Buccaneers

It's fairly shocking to see a total this low with two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. However, I actually lean under here in a game that could play out like the Bucs-Saints game did last week.

Due to injuries, suspensions and offseason departures, Tampa has major holes at wide receiver and offensive line. Through two games, Tom Brady has the second-lowest time to throw. That could be problematic against a top-tier Green Bay defense.

Meanwhile, the Packers could still be without left tackle David Bakhtiari, while they try to figure out their passing attack without Davonte Adams. It'll be difficult to maintain any consistent offense against this excellent Tampa defense that rarely allows anything on the ground,

Watch the line movement leading up to kick. If you can tease both the Packers and Broncos over a touchdown (at a price of -120 or better), I'd pull the trigger on two teams with excellent quarterbacks playing in low-total games.

As underdogs with a total of 45 or less in games they finished, Rodgers and Wilson have a combined 19-4-2 ATS (82.6%) record with a perfect 25-0 record when teased six points.

Notable Trend: Brady and Rodgers are the two most profitable quarterbacks ATS over the past 20 years, covering at around a 59% mark.

Falcons vs.

Seahawks

I'm going back to the well with the Falcons for a third straight week. Let's hope they improve to 3-0 ATS.

In my opinion, the Falcons are better than the market has implied so far this season. They have underrated talent on offense and Marcus Mariota's mobility adds play-calling flexibility while masking a fairly weak offensive line.

Defensively, Atlanta has a solid group of cornerbacks, led by one of the NFL's best in AJ Terrell. Plus, defensive coordinator Dean Pees' units usually improve significantly in year two of his scheme.

Meanwhile, Seattle lacks talent across the board. Yes, it beat Denver and still has a great home-field advantage, but the Broncos dominated statistically. The Seahawks then followed that game up with a dud in San Francisco.

This is also a decent matchup for the Dirty Birds. Seattle's struggling run game can't really exploit Atlanta's poor run defense. Meanwhile, the Atlanta corners can match up with Seattle's talented wide receivers.

Additionally, Mariota should have time here to exploit plus matchups on the outside against an extremely young and wounded secondary. I think Atlanta picks up its first win of the season.

Notable Trend: Over the past 20 years, Seattle is 92-67-6 ATS (57.9%) at home, second-best in the NFL behind the Patriots.

Rams vs.

Cardinals

I'm actually lower than the market on both teams, but much lower on the Cardinals, who scooped up a fluke win last week. I'd love to get the Rams at a flat -3, but I don't think it gets there.

Notable Trend: Sean McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury, winning 10 of 11 meetings straight up with a sparkling 9-1-1 ATS record. The Rams seem to always strategize well for this matchup, including in last year's dominant playoff victory.