The NFL quarterback scene is in shambles, but that's something that sharp bettors don't care about. In fact, the uncertainty has resulted in some valuable opportunities in their eyes.
Here's a simple little three step process that occurs when a backup QB is expected to get the start:
- QB gets hurt
- Public overreacts, drives up the line
- Sharps come in for the buyback
Let's take a look at how they've bet this week's slate.
All odds and data as of Saturday @ 4 p.m. ET.
Ravens at Chiefs
1 p.m. ET | CBS
When I wrote my betting market report earlier in the week, the Ravens-Chiefs over/under was among the biggest line moves of the slate. Although many-a-total have dropped this week, perhaps due to the onslaught of holding calls, this sucker had shot up like my temperature after a Tsetse fly bite.
But that was long ago.
Since Wednesday, this total has remained one of the biggest movers — in the opposite direction. The under has been hammered, bombarded, pummeled and drubbed since mid-week.
After reaching its peak of 55.5, we've tracked nine bet signals on the under, which has caused the line to drop down to 52.
Our money percentages also reveal that the over is the trendy pick (71% of bets), but the money is split nearly 50/50.
Maybe the sharps just felt it was too high of a line, but I have a feeling the weather forecast has something to do with it, too.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 55.5 to 52)
Jets at Patriots
1 p.m. ET | CBS
The battle of the 199th overall picks — the NFL GOAT and the Utah high school football GOAT. Seventy-percent of bettors are siding with Tom Brady, while the other 30% have the stones to bet on Luke Falk.
The Pats' hype train caused this line to open between -21 and -22, and it almost reached -24 before the sharps began weighing in.
Sharp action on the Jets struck before the Antonio Brown release, moving the line from +23.5 to +22. After the star wide receiver was cut, the line dropped another point — taking away the hook on the "key" number of 21.
Per Bet Labs, all five NFL dogs of 20+ points we have on record since 2003 have covered, and quite easily, too. The average cover margin is over 10 points.
The under in this game has also seen both pre and post AB-release sharp action. One of many games that's seen a total drop this week, pros steamed this opener of 45.5 and 44.5 not too long after.
It was down to 43.5 at the time of the AB news, which caused one final move down to 43.
Sharp Angle: Jets (moved from +23.5 to +21) and Under (moved from 45.5 to 43)
Saints at Seahawks
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
After watching Teddy Bridgewater's offense accomplish absolutely nothing against the Rams last week, it's not surprising to see 72% of the bets on Russell Wilson's Seahawks.
This line saw a serious adjustment following the Drew Brees news, as the lookahead had the Saints favored by one with an over/under of 50. The Bridgewater openers: Seahawks -6, 45.5.
That was a little much in the eyes of the sharps, though. We've tracked two reverse line moves on the Saints, and our betting percentages also show that New Orleans is getting 48% of the money despite the lack of public support.
This number is bouncing around in the 4.5-5 range, which isn't exactly a key number in the NFL, but any 5.5s and 6s appear to be long gone.
Sharp Angle: Saints (moved from +6 to +5)
