NFL Week 3 Picks
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Chris Raybon: This is the spot you want the Steelers.
Where do I even begin?
Let's keep it simple: According to our Action Labs data, the Steelers are 46-23-2 (67%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog under Mike Tomlin.
Bet Pittsburgh to +3.
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Anthony Dabbundo: You could argue that no team has looked worse than the Colts after two road divisional games against the Texans and the Jaguars. The Colts have traditionally been a slow starter under head coach Frank Reich, and this is the perfect buy-low opportunity.
The lookahead line for this game sat around three, and while the Chiefs defeated Chargers — albeit with an underwhelming box score — the market is overreacting to just how bad the Colts played on Sunday.
Jacksonville has been a notoriously bad place for the Colts — they haven't won there since 2014 — but Indianapolis does generally fare well in the ensuing week following a loss to the Jags. You only have to go back to 2020, when the Colts lost in Jacksonville and then trucked Minnesota the following week.
The Colts should be aided by the return of their top two wide receivers, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alex Pierce, as well as top defensive playmaker and All-Pro Shaq Leonard.
If you blindly bet 0-2 ATS teams in Week 3 since 2003, you'd be 84-72-4 against the spread. If you control that for winless teams in Week 3, the record improves to 65-45-1.
The Chiefs do get extra preparation, but this is not a good spot for them, sandwiched between a road divisional win and a looming trip to Tampa Bay.
Sell high on Kansas City, buy low on Indianapolis at +6 or better.
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John LanFranca: The original opening line of this AFC matchup over the early months of the summer listed the Chiefs as having an advantage of only 2.5 points. The lookahead line in recent weeks moved to favor the Patrick Mahomes-led squad by 3.5 points.
Now, after seeing both these teams take the field twice, the line has increased substantially in favor of the 2-0 team.
BetMGM has already moved the line all the way to a key number of 7 points, and I expect more books to follow in the coming days.
The value is with the home team in Indianapolis. It will not be a popular pick; but remember, the Chiefs schedule is loaded with difficult competition, and there will surely be a few let down spots where they play down to their opponent.
Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley ranked 30th in the NFL in 2021 when it came to the amount of man coverage he deployed managing the Raiders defense. His defense was also last in the league in bringing extra defenders to create pressure. These traits are actually positives when analyzing the best ways to contain Mahomes.
The Colts can put together a game plan on both sides of the ball to keep this game close and they will be playing to salvage their season. Grab +7 whenever you can throughout the week as the Colts will show up for their home opener. I would only play this at +7 or higher.
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Cody Goggin: The Giants have been a success story so far at 2-0, while Dallas is missing Dak Prescott. Still, there's still no reason the Giants should be favored by three points in this game.
Cooper Rush proved that he is capable of leading the Dallas offense on Sunday against Cincinnati. Against the Bengals, the Cowboys had a solid 70.4% series conversion rate. Rush averaged 0.12 EPA per dropback, which is a very impressive number. For reference, this is the same as Mac Jones in 2021. Rush is a capable quarterback, and with the help he has around him, he should be able to keep this offense afloat.
Brian Daboll has the Giants playing much more competitively, but the offense has still not been super impressive. This week they had just a 64.3% series conversion rate and a poor 32% success rate. Daniel Jones averaged -0.03 yards per dropback but New York was still able to pull out a win. It was a similar story in Week 1 as Daniel Jones averaged -0.21 yards per dropback to Ryan Tannehill’s 0.34.
The Giants are a great story right now and everyone will want to support them at home, but Dallas is the right pick at +3. With this number at three and even money at DraftKings, I’d grab this as soon as possible before the line goes under.
Bet to Cowboys +3 (-115).
