NFL Week 3 Picks for Our Free-to-Play Taylor Swift Contest: Chiefs vs. Falcons Spread, More

It’s week three of the NFL season and hopefully we’ll be blessed with a Taylor appearance at the Chiefs game for a third week in a row. If you’re hoping for a glimpse of Taylor on Sunday Night Football, have some fun with it and play our FREE game, TixPick6, for a chance to win a trip for two to the Eras Tour in Vancouver!

A quick reminder for anyone new to the game– participants can win up to 13 entries a week for the grand prize drawing by answering six questions related to the Chiefs game and Taylor Swift. There are still eight weeks left, which means you have a chance to get up to 104 entries in the drawing. Check out this article for a full breakdown of the rules.

For a detailed explanation of how to play our Eras Tour tickets NFL picks contest, click here! 

Last Week: Chiefs vs. Bengals Week 2 Recap

Let’s very quickly recap last week’s game before jumping into this week, in Taylor terms of course.

• Who will be in the suite with Taylor Swift?Ed and Donna Kelce
• Will there be a Taylor mention within the first two minutes of the game?No
• Who will cover the spread?Bengals +5.5
• Will the total points scored be over or under 47.5?Over 47.5 (51)
• Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown?No
• Will Travis Kelce go over or under 5.5 receptions?Under (1)
• Bonus! What song wasn’t mentioned in last week’s recap? Tell Me Why

It's time for this week’s game — a Sunday Night Football showdown in Atlanta! Atlanta is coming off a big win on Monday Night Football against the Eagles. Sure, there were plenty of highlights from that game, but personally the only highlight I care about is Jason Kelce dancing in his green velour tracksuit.

Will Taylor be featured in the Sunday Night Football intro video? 

Every week Carrie Underwood leads us into Sunday Night Football with a catchy song customized to that week’s game. Could we see a nod to Taylor during this? They do often show some fan shots and NBC may want to cater to their audience, but the networks have toned it down so far this season.

Last week, Taylor got about 20 seconds of coverage during the game. Your guess is as good as mine!

How many Taylor references will we get in the first quarter? Over/Under 1.5 

As mentioned above, the broadcasts aren’t spending much time on Taylor this season. If Travis has a breakout first quarter then sure the over could make sense, but he’s been off to a slow start this season. I’m going to go with the under here.

Pick 1: The Spread: Chiefs -3.5 or Falcons +3.5

Next, we’re making a pick against the spread (ATS). As a reminder, the point spread is a number set by oddsmakers almost like a “handicap.” It’s basically the expected final score difference. Teams with a + number are the underdog, and a – number means they’re the favorite.

So for Week 3, the Chiefs are the favorite again and need to win by 4 points to cover the spread. The Falcons are the underdog and need to lose by less than 4 points to cover the spread.

Let’s take a look at some of the data courtesy of our Director of Research, Evan Abrams.

• The argument against taking the Falcons could come down to quarterback Kirk Cousins’ history with primetime games. Now before I say anything else, Kirk Cousins’ has openly said that he hopes Taylor Swift is around the game for a long time and that her impact has been positive. Shout out Kirk!
  • In Cousins' career, he has started 42 games in primetime — which are high-profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. Cousins is 17-25 against the spread in those outings.
  • Cousins has been an underdog in primetime games 22 times. His teams are 9-13 against the spread.
• Patrick Mahomes is 12-9 against the spread in the month of September. He also has a better record against the spread when playing outside of the 1 p.m. ET window. He’s 47-34-1.
• In games that Taylor Swift attends, the Chiefs are now 12-3 straight up (SU) and 9-5-1 ATS after their Week 1 win against the Ravens, but ATS loss to the Bengals in Week 2.

It might seem like the Chiefs are the obvious answer if you’re just going with the trends. Last week I went against all the experts at the company, followed some trends and my gut and lost. This week the experts are all on the Falcons to cover the spread so I’m going to trust them.

Pick 2: The Total — Over 46.5 or Under 46.5

The total is referring to the total combined points scored by both teams and you’ll decide whether you think it’ll be over or under the number the oddsmakers set. The total for this game is 46.5 so you’ll pick Over or Under 46.5.

The under has hit in Kirk Cousins’ last eight games, but could this be the week the under streak ends? Cousins is actually the fifth most-profitable quarterback to the over in the last two decades. Most of the money and the bets are being placed on the over and I’m hoping for an exciting game on Sunday so I’ll pick what I’m rooting for.

Picks 3 & 4: Travis Kelce props

Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown? 

I’m sorry but I’m doing it again. I will feel so silly if he scores the one week I say no. Yes!

Will Travis Kelce go over or under 48.5 receiving yards?

We’re going back to receiving yards this week. Based on the odds, the sportsbooks think it’s a bit more likely that Kelce will go under 48.5 receiving yards against Atlanta.

Through the first two games of the season, Travis has only four catches for 39 total yards. Our PRO projections, powered by Sean Koerner (who went an absurd 14-0 on his bets last week!), have Kelce projected at 54 yards.

I could see this going either way and will probably make my decision closer to game time.

Final Thoughts

As a reminder, I’ll be updating this article throughout the week in case anything comes up that might affect your picks. If you’ve already submitted your picks but want to change them, you can do so by canceling your submission and resubmitting them.

• Will Taylor be featured in the Sunday Night Football intro video?Your guess is as good as mine!
• How many Taylor references will we get in the first quarter? Over/Under 1.5? Under
• Who will cover the spread? Chiefs -3.5 or Falcons +3.5: Falcons
• Over 46.5 or Under 46.5: Over 46.5
• Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown? Yes
• Will Travis Kelce go over or under 48.5 receiving yards? Check back for updates!

I’ll be waiting all day for Sunday night to hopefully catch another glimpse of Taylor! Good luck this week.