Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important to get the bets in as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 3 picks & predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 3 Predictions, Picks
Both teams were in the top nine in Defensive DVOA last season but bottom four on offense. The Jets offense improved but hasn't come close to its potential. New York should have lost to the Titans and be 0-2. The Patriots, meanwhile, are competing by playing tough defense, limiting mistakes and shortening the game by running the football well.
This is a tough spot for the Jets. They started the season on Monday Night Football on the West Coast, and then they hit the road and crossed time zones again for Week 2. Now, they're playing on a second straight short week.
We know about primetime unders, but we love our ugly Thursday unders.
Since 2010, totals of 40 or lower on Thursday nights are 19-7 (73%) to the under, including 14-3 before December. Also, primetime unders between 37-40 in games that are not on Monday night are 44-21-1 (68%), specifically 21-4-1 on just Thursday night (84%).
The weather might help us here, as well. There's a 50% chance of rain and there will be noteworthy wind.
This feels like an ugly short-week divisional game, so set it and forget it with the under. I already grabbed 39, so be sure to follow me in the Action App to get these picks right when I log them.
If you follow me in the Action App, you'll see that I grabbed this at 40 already. On these low lines, if you like the under, you can't set it low enough.
The Browns defense is the clear standout unit in this game, especially at home. Both offensive lines here are suspect and will be playing impressive front sevens.
Also, both quarterbacks are bad and unreliable. These teams had bottom-five offenses last season according to DVOA, and I've seen little reason to believe that's not the case again this season.
Three of the four games these teams have played this season have gone under, all of which have had 39 or fewer points scored. The Giants are averaging 12 points per game while the Browns are at 17.5.
Now, the trends.
September games with totals of 38 or lower over the last decade are 11-3 to the under, including 4-0 this season. Unders of 37 or lower since November 2019 are 35-12-1 (75%).
Also, when the Giants have had a total below 44 under head coach Brian Daboll, those games are 16-9-1 (64%) to the under.
