As the Anytime Touchdown Specialist here at Action Network, I’ll be betting TD props for every primetime game of the 2022 NFL season and sharing my analysis on how I’m approaching each pick.
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Brandin Cooks
ATD +225 (bet365)
Cooks leads the Texans in red-zone targets this season and did so last year. He’s also playing just below 90% of Houston’s offensive snaps.
Cooks’ 22 targets is 11th in the NFL and more than guys like A.J. Brown, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and Michael Thomas. Those four players are +120 or lower to score in Week 2.
The stats for the Bears secondary are massively inflated this season. The 49ers couldn’t throw in Week 1 because of the awful conditions in Chicago, while Green Bay ran all over the Bears last Sunday night.
Last season, Chicago allowed the second-most TDs to opposing wide receivers. This is a game where that could be exposed.
Cooks’ odds are as low as +150 in some spots, so be sure to shop around and get the best number, which is currently at bet365.
Kyler Murray
ATD +240 (FanDuel)
This one is a bit of an odds play on Murray.
When the former No. 1 overall pick is right, he might be the most elusive player in the NFL. We saw that on display last week late in the Cardinals’ win over the Raiders, against whom he closed at +170 to score a touchdown.
Hot starts to the season are nothing new for Murray. He had seven rushing touchdowns last season in Weeks 1-4, and his odds were between +120 and +140 in those games.
Josh Allen ran one in against the Rams in Week 1, while Marcus Mariota certainly had his chances last week. The Rams were bottom of the league last season in rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing QBs.
James Conner is questionable due to an ankle injury. Him missing out could mean Murray’s legs become more of a factor in this game, which may require a lot of scrambling to keep Arizona in it against the defending champs.
Mack Hollins
ATD +275 (bet365)
No one saw Mack Hollins getting eight targets and a red-zone target happening last week, but here we are.
Here’s an example of why you need to follow me in the Action App.
Hunter Renfrow didn’t practice all week due to a concussion. I got Hollins early, before Renfrow was officially ruled out on Friday, when the numbers significantly dropped.
Hollins was already playing more than 87% of snaps with Renfrow in the lineup. It would be no surprise if that went up this week in Nashville.
Hollins caught four touchdowns last season with the Dolphins from Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett, which is no surprise since he stand 6-foot-4.
The Titans allowed the fourth-most TDs to opposing wide receivers last season, and they just let Josh Allen do whatever he wanted in Week 2, including throwing three touchdown passes to Stefon Diggs.
Logan Thomas
ATD +300 (FanDuel)
Coming off a serious knee injury, Thomas is beginning to look like his old self. He caught a touchdown last week against the Lions and is playing almost double the snaps as backup TE John Bates.
Thomas caught three touchdowns in five games last season with Taylor Heinicke under center. His ATD odds ranged from +180 to +250 in those games.
Carson Wentz might prefer targeting his TEs even more, with eight of his 27 TD passes last season going to that position. In fact, 58 of his 147 career touchdown throws have been to tight ends. That’s just below 40%.
Thomas hasn’t played the Eagles since 2020, but he has seven catches on 14 targets and, most importantly, two touchdowns in those games. Philadelphia has been good against tight ends this season, but they gave up the most TDs in the NFL to the position last season.
C.J. Uzomah
ATD +1300 (FanDuel)
There’s more to this than simply a “Revenge Game” scenario for C.J. Uzomah.
The Bengals were a bottom-five team last season against tight ends, ranking 27th or lower in catches, yards and touchdowns allowed to the position. This season, they’ve faced Pat Freiermuth and Dalton Schultz, both of whom had drops in the end zone against Cincinnati.
Uzomah was between +250 and +300 in every game he played for the Bengals last season despite being the fourth option in the offense and being on the field for the vasty majority of snaps. Here, we’re getting a big bump in price.
Obviously, Uzomah will be motivated, and these odds are too much for me to ignore. Shoutout Prop Bomb for bringing it to my attention.
