The NFL just concluded a week filled with major upsets. After two straight weeks of popular picks losing, Survivor pools have been decimated, and pick'em contests have been shaken up by numerous unexpected upsets. This article outlines three key strategies for making your Week 3 picks, whether you're selecting a team in your survivor pool, allocating points in a football confidence pool, or targeting upset picks to boost your chances of winning a weekly NFL contest.
At PoolGenius, we specialize in identifying top-value opportunities. We provide you with the tools to maximize your chances of success in NFL survivor pools, office pools, and football pick'em contests.
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Week 3 NFL Survivor Picks: The Hunted Become the Hunters
Last week brought several major upsets and significant shakeups in survivor pools, with none bigger than the Raiders' comeback victory over Baltimore, the most popular survivor pick.
This week, the tables have turned, and now the Las Vegas Raiders are the most popular pick in survivor pools. While it’s unusual for a team to go from underdog to the most popular pick, they aren’t the only ones. Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, the next three most popular teams this week, were all underdogs just a week ago as well.
Week 3 presents a showdown between saving future value and maximizing current expected value. The appeal of the Las Vegas Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Cleveland Browns is partly due to their limited future value in survivor pools. Additionally, many survivor players are likely targeting their opponents — the Panthers, Broncos, and Giants.
On the other hand, picking teams like Cincinnati, the Jets, or other less popular choices offers better expected value (EV) now, though it comes at the cost of using teams that may have more favorable matchups later in the season.
You can check out our NFL Survivor Picks to see how we suggest playing Week 3 for your pool.
Week 3 NFL Pick'em & Confidence Pool Picks: Titans Are a Value Play vs. Packers
Last week, we highlighted the Colts as a value favorite against a Packers team missing QB Jordan Love. However, the Colts collapsed, throwing three interceptions, missing a field goal, and failing on a crucial fourth down attempt. They also allowed the Packers, who were clearly focused on limiting Malik Willis' passing, to run the ball 53 times for over 250 yards, controlling the clock and maintaining a lead throughout the game.
Now, can the Titans turn things around? At 0-2, the Titans have underperformed, mainly due to key turnovers and returns. Despite leading the league in yards allowed, they rank in the bottom third for points allowed. If the Titans' defense can do what the Colts couldn’t—force Malik Willis to throw more—they may be able to change the outcome.
Currently, the Titans are favored by the betting markets, but 63% of pool entries are picking the Packers. So far, the results in these public vs. oddsmaker matchups have been mixed. In Week 1, the public-backed Cowboys won as road underdogs against the Browns, but in Week 2, the Cardinals comfortably beat the public-favored Rams.
When the betting favorite is less popular with the public, it offers a strong leverage opportunity in Confidence and Pick’em pools—one that’s worth serious consideration.
Check out our Football Pick’em Picks product to see our specific recommendations for other value picks in your pool.
Weekly Pool Prize Strategy for Week 3: Low Spreads Offer Value
Week 3 presents six matchups where the current spread is -2.5 or lower. At the moment, none of these matchups show a heavy skew in popularity toward one side. However, these games are likely to be higher-leverage picks in weekly contests. With these matchups making up nearly 40 percent of all games this week, correctly picking all or most of them can create a significant swing in the standings.
The New Orleans vs. Philadelphia game had a -1 spread yesterday before the Eagles' loss pushed it to -2.5. The Saints are gaining popularity, so deciding whether to ride their hot streak or go against the grain will be a crucial decision for Week 3.
Keep an eye on line movement throughout the week for all these games. Small shifts in win odds can impact the value dynamic, making it important to monitor these games for your weekly pick-’em pools.
Get Expert Football Pool Picks In 2024
Maximizing your chances of winning NFL survivor and football pick'em pools is all about stacking the odds in your favor. The challenge, however, lies in the vast amount of data and complex calculations involved, which most players simply don't have the time, expertise, or interest to manage.
At PoolGenius, we handle all the data collection and analysis for you, enabling you to compete like a pro in your 2024 football pools. Thanks to our partnership with Action Network, you can use the links below to take advantage of a no-obligation free trial and access exclusive season discounts.
