NFL Week 3 Data-Driven Best Bets, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chargers vs. Vikings
By Billy Ward
Sportsbooks continue to improve their pricing on this – and frankly, all – prop bets as more and more people attack them. However, there’s still a slight leak in how these are priced at BetMGM, creating the occasional opportunity.
That comes when games are projected to be very close, but still come in with high totals. The books incorrectly weigh the total as being more predictive of the outcome of this prop than it should be.
While the total matters – more total scoring means more chances for one team to get three in a row – it’s less than half as predictive as the spread.
Which means this one is slightly less likely to hit than a game with a one-point spread and a total in the mid 40s, but still more than playable. The true odds are about +125 all things considered, giving us a small edge.
The other games I’m targeting the “No” bet are Patriots-Jets at +125 (fair odds +110) and Saints-Packers at +150 (fair odds around +120). The pricing on the latter is especially interesting, since it has an identical spread as the Chargers-Vikings game but a lower total, yet we’re getting better odds on the “No” side.
Pick: Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times — No (+140)
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Patriots vs. Jets
By Nick Giffen
If the weather forecast looks like it will be fairly even between the two halves, then I’d go ahead and make this bet based off the analysis below. If it appears the weather will be significantly worse for one half or the other, make your bet according to the forecast if the odds don’t adjust.
The Mac Jones-led Patriots visit the Zach Wilson-led Jets in the first of two matchups between these division rivals.
I point out the quarterbacks, because these are the same ones that squared off in both Patriots-Jets clashes last year. In both of those games, the second half was the highest scoring half.
That also lines up with each team’s neutral-situation pace splits.
Since the start of last season, the two teams average 27.7 seconds per play in neutral situations in the first half, while averaging 26.2 seconds per play in second-half neutral spots. Both teams actually pick up the pace from the first half to the second in these spots, so it shouldn’t matter too much if one or the other is ahead by less than a touchdown.
The most-likely scenario where either team would lead by more than a touchdown is the Patriots leading the Jets as the favored team – that’s especially true with New England being the unlucky team in this Luck Rankings matchup.
In this scenario, the Jets play as the 10th-fastest team when trailing while the Patriots play as the 10th-fastest team when leading, averaging out to 25.7 seconds per play.
The second half should be favored to have the most points, so I definitely like taking this bet at even money.
Pick: Highest Scoring Half — 2nd Half (Even)
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Falcons vs. Lions
By Sean Koerner
London bounced back from a zero-catch Week 1 with a 6/67/1 receiving line against the Packers.
He needed a 24-yard catch near the end of the game to clear this number. That win over Green Bay was one that saw QB Desmond Ridder set a career high in dropbacks as the Falcons ran a whopping 82 offensive plays.
Bijan Robinson is going to command a ton of targets this season, which will impact pass-catchers like London. Also, Cordarrelle Patterson is poised to make his season debut in this game and could demand targets, while Kyle Pitts' 13% target rate will surely go up.
All of this could come at London's expense.
London is a talented receiver, but he has a wider range of outcomes compared to other WR1s in the NFL because of how run-heavy the Falcons offense is.
I'm projecting his median closer to 43.5 with a 61% chance to stay under 49.5.
Making this bet at BetMGM? Get the latest promo code here.
Pick: Drake London Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Titans vs. Browns
By Billy Ward
Found under the “team props” section, DraftKings allows you to bet “yes” and “no” on the combination of team to score first and eventually win the game. These are clearly heavily correlated, but I dove in over the offseason to find out exactly how.
Unlike the three straight scores prop, both the spread and the total carry roughly equal weight here. Lower-total games increase the odds that the team to score first wins – every point means more in a game that finishes with 38 points than in a game that has 55.
The opposite is true with the spread, which also makes sense. A heavily favored team is more likely to score first than a slight favorite, and more likely to go on to win the game.
Of course, these are both factored into the pricing of the prop. Occasionally, we can find the sweet spot where we have an edge.
The Browns-Titans game is one such example. Games with a spread between 3.5 and 6.5 see the favored team score first and win 45% of the time (true odds of +120). When the total is less than 40, the favored team hits both marks 47% of the time.
Putting both of those together brings this one close to 50%, though the sample size on matching games in my data set is somewhat small.
Still, this one should probably be somewhere around +110, giving us a nice cushion.
Pick: Browns to Score First & Win (+135)
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Broncos vs. Dolphins
By Nick Giffen
After hitting a 263-1 overtime parlay last week, I figured I’d add in a brief snippet of all the games showing significant value in my model.
This week, it’s the following:
- Broncos at Dolphins +1550 (I have +1300 as fair)
- Falcons at Lions +1460 (+1275 as fair)
The Broncos are a Luck Rankings play this week, meaning this game has a strong chance of playing closer than the current six-point spread.
In the other game, the Falcons are just a field-goal underdog against a Lions team missing two starting offensive linemen.
Both teams’ kickers are above average – especially at extra points – while neither team goes for 2-point conversions at a rate significantly different from league average, meaning this game has a strong chance to end up at three- and seven-point differences late.
Pick: Overtime — Yes (+1550)
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Falcons vs. Lions
By Nick Giffen
After hitting a 263-1 overtime parlay last week, I figured I’d add in a brief snippet of all the games showing significant value in my model.
This week, it’s the following:
- Broncos at Dolphins +1550 (I have +1300 as fair)
- Falcons at Lions +1460 (+1275 as fair)
The Broncos are a Luck Rankings play this week, meaning this game has a strong chance of playing closer than the current six-point spread.
In the other game, the Falcons are just a field-goal underdog against a Lions team missing two starting offensive linemen.
Both teams’ kickers are above average – especially at extra points – while neither team goes for 2-point conversions at a rate significantly different from league average, meaning this game has a strong chance to end up at three- and seven-point differences late.
Pick: Overtime — Yes (+1460)
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