Each week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite spread picks for Sunday's slate.
I have a trio of bets for my NFL Week 3 predictions, two in the 1 p.m. ET window (Colts vs. Ravens; Titans vs. Browns) and one for Sunday Night Football (Steelers vs. Raiders).
When it comes to Week 3, I’m always looking to fade 2-0 favorites that I believe are overvalued. That’s the case here with my Ravens, who have benefited from facing a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road — with a backup offensive line — in Week 1 and then a hobbled Joe Burrow in Week 2.
Don’t get me wrong. The Ravens have one of the best teams in the league, especially with Lamar Jackson now getting the ball out much quicker and with more authority under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
However, this looks like a prime fade spot for a Baltimore team that will have to make do without seven key starters in a potential flat spot between two divisional matchups.
Jackson has historically struggled to cover in these situations. He is 17-4 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of three points or less, or as an underdog. In all other spots, he's just 18-26 ATS, including 2-11 since 2021.
Just take a look at who the Ravens will be without on Sunday:
- RB J.K. Dobbins
- RB Justice Hill
- OT Ronnie Stanley
- C Tyler Linderbaum
- CB Marlon Humphrey
- FS Marcus Williams
- WR Odell Beckham Jr.
- LB Odafe Oweh
That list includes the two best offensive linemen and two most important defensive backs. Even backup running back Justice Hill, who got most of the work last week, won’t suit up.
Meanwhile, the Colts are starting Gardner Minshew with Anthony Richardson out with a concussion. I think Minshew is a slight upgrade in this spot since he can attack this shorthanded Baltimore secondary downfield. Plus, I’d much rather have the experience of Minshew over a rookie quarterback in a hostile environment.
Lastly, the Colts have played much better than I anticipated coming into the season, especially in the trenches. That should keep this game competitive even without starting center Ryan Kelly.
Some potential inclement weather won't hurt the underdog, either.
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Losing Nick Chubb stings, but he’s still just a running back. That seems to be all anybody is focused on this week when it comes to the Browns, completely overshadowing how dominant the defense has been through two games.
Coming into the season, I thought Cleveland’s defense had a chance to be one of the most improved units in the NFL after bringing in new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Not only could he help fix some of the basic communication issues that plagued Cleveland throughout 2022, he could bring a needed aggression the unit lacked.
You already see that this season with an uptick in blitz packages. Additionally, the Browns bulked up in the interior to fix their leaky run defense, and they also brought in Juan Thornhill to shore up the back end of a secondary that already had three-plus corners.
Through their first two games, the Cleveland defense leads the NFL — by a wide margin — with a silly 25% success rate.
This defense is elite and it's still being undervalued in the market. They should cause major issues for a vulnerable Tennessee offensive line and an immobile quarterback in Ryan Tannehill.
That should be the difference in this game.
I’m selling the Steelers, who would be 0-2 if not for a pair of flukey defensive touchdowns last week.
I’m not a Kenny Pickett guy, but he certainly isn’t being put in the most ideal situation with offensive coordinator Matt Canada and a bad offensive line. Losing Diontae Johnson at receiver doesn’t help matters either.
On the season, Pittsburgh is last in EPA per play (-0.33) and Success Rate (35.7%).
Simply put, this is a bad offense that I have no issues fading on the road at a price tag of under a field goal, especially with Pittsburgh traveling out west on a short week for a primetime game.
For what it's worth, teams going from EST to PST and playing on the road on short rest are 8-16 ATS over the last 20 seasons, failing to cover by an average of just under six points per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo can’t win shootouts against the elite offenses in the AFC, but he can do enough with Davante Adams and the return of Jacobi Meyers to take advantage of a poor Pittsburgh secondary.
This could also serve as an opportunity for running back Josh Jacobs to finally get going on the ground, as the Steelers' defensive numbers against the run fall off a cliff without Cam Heyward in the middle. Look no further than last week, when Cleveland continued to gash Pitt on the ground even after losing Chubb.
The Raider defense isn’t anything to write home about. They are severely lacking in talent across the board outside of Maxx Crosby off the edge.
As a result, they are simply sitting back in soft coverage under new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham in order to take away explosive plays and make teams drive down the field efficiently. Ultimately, I don’t trust Pittsburgh's offense to do that, so I’ll side with the home team.
