Broncos vs. Dolphins
This is the biggest difference in our NFL Luck Rankings for Week 3, with these teams separated by 28 places. Since 2018, road teams with a luck differential of 28 or more places are 12-1 against the spread (ATS).
The Broncos are 0-2 with a minus-3 point differential. The public perception of them is going to be lower than it should be, especially facing a 2-0 Dolphins team.
However, Russell Wilson is playing well. He ranks inside the top eight in passer rating, air net yards per attempt and EPA per dropback. He should only get better as he gets more experience in Sean Payton's offense and with Jerry Jeudy being another week removed from missing Week 1 due to a hamstring injury.
The Dolphins offense suffered a massive blow with Jaylen Waddle being ruled out. It's the first time that the Dolphins will be without Tyreek Hill or Waddle this season. Miami's offense is so top-heavy that it might be easier for defenses to slow down Hill now that they don't have to worry about Waddle.
There also might be some rain in this game, which could slow down the Miami offense. A lower-scoring game where both teams might have to lean on the run a bit more than expected would only help Denver.
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Panthers vs. Seahawks
My power rating for the Panthers actually goes up one-half point with Andy Dalton under center instead of Bryce Young. That's not to say the Panthers shouldn't be starting Young when he's healthy. He needs the experience and could develop into an above-average QB down the road.
I always thought Carolina would get off to a rough start. Young tends to work outside the pocket and take unique angles on his throws. The Panthers offensive line and pass-catchers will all take time to adjust to his playing style as a result.
Young was off to a rough start to his NFL career. Through two games, he ranks in the bottom five of almost every quarterback metric.
Dalton isn't the downgrade most will think he is. He played well for the Saints last season, ranking in the top 14 in most QB metrics.
For the Seattle defense, losing CB Tariq Whoolen is a massive blow. CB Coby Bryant is also out, while safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs are questionable.
An experienced quarterback like Dalton should be able to take advantage of this improved matchup because of those injuries. On offense, the Seahawks will be without two starting offensive linemen.
I'm projecting this closer to Seahawks -3.5. The most likely outcome in this game is Seattle winning by exactly three points, so I like the value we're getting at Panthers +5.
