Chigoziem Okonkwo
Less Than 33.5 Receiving Yards
Okonkwo barely cleared this total last week despite DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks seeing a dip in playing time.
The Titans TE has been staying in and blocking more than expected this season, something that should continue with LG Peter Skoronski out again this week. Plus, Okonkwo hasn't been running as explosive of routes this season, with an Average Depth of Target of just 7.8 yards while averaging 8.8 yards per catch.
The Browns have held opposing tight ends to just 9.5 receiving yards per game through two weeks, which is the best mark in the NFL.
I'm projecting Okonkwo for closer to 27.5 receiving yards and would play this down to 31.5.
Drake London
Less Than 49.5 Receiving Yards
London bounced back from a zero-catch Week 1 with a 6/67/1 receiving line against the Packers. He needed a 24-yard catch near the end of the game to clear this number. That win over Green Bay was one that saw QB Desmond Ridder set a career high in dropbacks as the Falcons ran a whopping 82 offensive plays.
Bijan Robinson is going to command a ton of targets this season, which will impact pass-catchers like London. Also, Cordarrelle Patterson is poised to make his 2023 debut in this game and could demand targets, while Kyle Pitts' 13% target rate will surely go up. All of this could come at London's expense.
London is a very talented receiver, but he has a wider range of outcomes compared to other WR1s in the NFL because of how extremely run-heavy the Falcons offense is. I'm projecting his median closer to 43.5 with a 61% chance to stay below 49.5.
