Week 3 of the NFL saw some surprising last-minute upsets as Miami beat Buffalo with a late defensive stop and Indianapolis beat Kansas City after an eight-minute, game-winning touchdown drive led by Matt Ryan.
There are just two undefeated teams remaining — Philadelphia and Miami — and two winless teams — Las Vegas and Houston.
Box scores, final scores and the narratives that form around them can be misleading, and I'm here to sift through what is real and what is not from the first three weeks and counting of the season.
The Cardinals might be even worse than we thought.
The Cardinals entered 2022 as a prime regression candidate after running extremely well with fumble luck and late-down variance in the first half of 2021.
Arizona has completely fallen off a cliff and should really be 0-3. If not for some magic from Kyler Murray in the fourth quarter against Las Vegas to engineer a 16-point comeback, the Cardinals would basically be facing elimination this Sunday.
The chart above removes turnovers and focuses on just team performance on a down-to-down basis. I also removed teams at the extreme ends to exclude plays where win probability was less than 10% and greater than 90%. The result is that Arizona has been the worst team in the NFL.
Its offense ranks 32nd and its defense is 31st, only ahead of Seattle. The betting market rates the Cardinals right below the middle of the league based on its spreads through three weeks, and I think that is entirely too high.
I know what the trends say about Kliff Kingsbury as an underdog (19-9-2) and Matt Rhule as a favorite (3-10 ATS) in their respective NFL careers. But I have no interest in betting the Cardinals on a line that assumes the Cardinals are better than the Panthers.
Murray's career yards per attempt entering this season was more than a yard less per pass when DeAndre Hopkins isn't on the field. Through three games without Hopkins, Murray's yards per attempt is even lower at 5.6.
It gets even worse for the Cardinals on defense, where they rank 32nd in defensive series conversion rate — the percentage of the time that an opponent turns a 1st and 10 into a new series against them.
Recommended bet: I'm not betting on or against them Sunday, but I am adding more to my preseason Cardinals fades by adding under 7.5 wins at +120 or better.
It's not flashy, but Atlanta and Cleveland are quietly shining offensively.
Here's a list of the top eight offenses in the NFL by early down EPA/play:
The Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota revolutions are fully underway.
On one hand, there is a good chance Brissett and Mariota fall off going forward given their track records. But in a league that has struggled mightily for offense in the first three weeks (with unders hitting at a ridiculous clip), Browns vs. Falcons has plenty of potential for points.
The Falcons have the third worst run defense by Rushing Success Rate allowed and the fifth worst run defense by EPA/play allowed. Both defenses also rank well below average in early down defensive series conversion rate allowed. There shouldn't be much resistance for points.
Consider that the Browns' mediocre defensive numbers to this point came against Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky and Baker Mayfield. It's for sure a defense I want to continue to fade when they play quality quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in future weeks.
Recommended bet: The total for this game opened at 46 and jumped to 48, but I still like the over at the current number.
Atlanta's run defense had major issues against Seattle last week, and Cleveland should be able to move the chains comfortably on the ground. I'd play over at 49 or better.
Every year there is one team ridiculously decimated by injuries, and the Chargers are the 2022 early season favorites.
Baltimore entered 2021 with very high expectations in a difficult AFC landscape.
The Ravens seemed to have one of the best all-around rosters, a star quarterback and a good head coach on the forefront of the NFL's analytics movement. Their season was derailed by injuries in the secondary, offensive line, quarterback and running backs.
Through three weeks, the 2022 Chargers are eerily similar.
Against the Jaguars, Justin Herbert was clearly not 100% playing through a rib cartilage injury and wasn't nearly as effective as normal. Will he ever be 100% again this season? Lamar Jackson wasn't really in 2021, either.
Top corner J.C. Jackson is still nursing an ankle problem. Star pass rusher Joey Bosa now has a "significant" groin issue, Keenan Allen is banged up with a hamstring and the offensive line is in shambles with injuries to Corey Linsley and Rashawn Slater.
The only saving grace for the Chargers could be that the division has so badly underwhelmed to this point with Denver an unimpressive 2-1 and Las Vegas at 0-3.
New England is facing time without Mac Jones, and the Colts and Titans haven't exactly shined in the AFC South. There might be a buffer for the Chargers to make mistakes and lose games until they're fully healthy.
It could even present a good buy-low opportunity on them in the middle of the season, but they have to address left tackle. Storm Norton is not an option to protect Herbert's blind side and Slater isn't expected to return this year due to a torn biceps.
Verdict: Laying six points in Houston is a decent opportunity, but I'm waiting to buy low on the Chargers. The next few weeks look like they'll be a struggle.
A win for the Colts, but another concerning offensive performance.
I cashed a Colts ticket on Sunday in an all-in home spot against an overvalued Chiefs team.
It's absolutely true that the Colts' defense and pass rush finally showed up, and that projects well for them going forward. Gus Bradley's defense made Patrick Mahomes force a ton of off-rhythm throws and hold the ball longer than he's comfortable doing. The Colts will also eventually get Darius Leonard back and should be a top-10 unit overall.
Kansas City now has two losses in the Mahomes era when the opponent scores less than 26 points, per Scott Kacsmar. Both are to the Colts. They have 45 wins in that span.
But there remains major problems with the Colts' offense, especially the offensive line. They struggled early last season before picking it up right around Week 5 so all hope is not lost, but Matt Ryan was sacked five times and hit 10 times despite having the fifth fastest time to throw.
Ryan's pinpoint accuracy remains, but his decision making under pressure has been poor. The long fourth quarter drive saved the season (for now), but unless they sort out the offensive line, Indianapolis' offense is going to have major problems. They rank 22nd in series conversion rate and lack general explosiveness.
As for the Chiefs, their defense is better than last year while special teams has a Harrison Butker injury issue. The offense, notably, looks less supersonic than prior years.
Or, maybe the Colts just are a bogeyman for Mahomes in that building. Chiefs unders will probably be a good looking spot in the short term — especially against the Buccaneers in Week 4.
