Week 4 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
Below are my ATD picks for NFL Week 4 from the Touchdown Show, which you can watch every Sunday morning on Action Network's YouTube page.
A.J. Brown has a 23.8% target share and 34.3 first-read share against zone defense. That means he should be busy against this Commanders D on Sunday afternoon.
Browns is yet to score a touchdown this season, which makes me like this pick even more. He should’ve found the end zone in Week 3 but dropped an easy score.
Browns ranks in the top 25 in red-zone targets with five, and it’s a matter of time until he’s celebrating a touchdown.
The Panthers have allowed the fourth-highest yards-per-reception average in the NFL this season and the 13th-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.
Hockenson is a key target for the Vikings, ranking second in red-zone targets behind only Justin Jefferson. Hockenson’s lowest target total this season is eight, so expect him to be busy again against the Panthers.
Importantly for this market, Hockenson is 13th in red-zone targets with six through three games.
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The Broncos offense has been struggling, but Mims has been one of the bright spots. I expect Denver to get its rookie playmaker more involved moving forward.
Mims had an impressive return touchdown that came too late for the Broncos in their embarrassing Week 3 loss to the Dolphins. He also had more than 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Simply put, good things happen when Denver gets the ball in Mims’ hands.
The Bears are a dream matchup for any skill-position player, so I’ll back Mims to find the end zone for a third straight week.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tiers: Week 4
The anytime touchdown tiers are a weekly feature that breaks each weekend’s matchups to identify players with the highest likelihood of scoring a touchdown each week. This is designed as a resource for you to use on your anytime touchdown plays.
The rankings consist of four tiers, with Tier 1 containing players I feel most confident in scoring a touchdown that weekend. These are players who are getting heavy volume and/or have a great matchup. Nothing is a sure thing when betting anytime touchdowns, but these are the players I feel are closest to that sure thing designation.
Tier 2 are also players I really like to score a touchdown but rank just below those tier 1 players. Tier 2 players still have good matchups and solid volume, but just fall right below those Tier 1 players.
Tiers 3 (and Tier 4) is where a lot can be found. These are mostly players with a good shot of scoring, but the odds aren’t going to be in the -120 range or anywhere near there. Tier 4 consists of longer odds players that could find the end zone, and the odds are often reflective of that, who don't see the volume or have the best matchup.
If you are making an anytime touchdown parlay, sticking to Tier 1 (and Tier 2) players is your best bet, as both tiers are the two most likely to score (Tier 1 being the favorites). Each Tier is ranked as well, so the top player in each tier would be a favorite to score a touchdown and so on down the list. That way you can see which players within each tier I like the most. These have produced some memorable anytime touchdown parlay hits, so use this as a resource when throwing together your plays.
Here are the players who stand out in Week 4.
Tier 1
RB Kenneth Walker (SEA)
RB Christian McCaffrey (SF)
TE Travis Kelce (KC)
WR Stefon Diggs (BUF)
WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN)
Tier 2
WR A.J. Brown (PHI)
RB James Cook (BUF)
TE T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
QB Anthony Richardson (IND)
Tier 3
QB Josh Allen (BUF)
WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
RB Javonte Williams (DEN)
WR Tee Higgins (CIN)
