Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how the Action Network NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our new NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
With no Luck Matchups in Week 4, the Action Network Luck Matchups remain at 7-4-2 against the spread. Neither Monday Night Football game features a luck-based matchup, so that will be the record heading into Week 5.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing. so be sure to check out the science behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at expected scores and comparing them to actual scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to their expected performance given the game situations they encountered.
Here's a look at which teams were the unluckiest in Week 4 before heading into the Monday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants.
NFL Bad Beats: Week 4
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. Las Vegas Raiders (+7)
- Actual Result: Chargers 24, Raiders 17
- Expected Score: Raiders 27, Chargers 17
- Swing: 17 points, 46.8% win probability
The Raiders were the better team moving the ball, with an offensive success rate of 45% compared to the Chargers' 33.9%. The order of success mattered a lot here, as the Chargers had a 38.5% success rate in the first half compared to 25% in the second half.
Las Vegas left Los Angeles with short fields on back-to-back first-half possessions, which the Chargers turned into 14 points. It's likely that if their full-game success rate prevailed, they were expected to score closer to 10 points from those two possessions.
Even that field posistion was lucky for the Chargers due to fumble luck. Of the four fumbles in the game, possession ended up with the Chargers three times.
The most costly play, however, was rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell's interception on the Raiders' final drive. On first-and-goal from the Chargers' 3-yard line, Las Vegas had an expected point value of six points on that drive. The interception instead resulted in an EPA of -6.5, killing the Raiders' comeback hopes.
2. Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
- Actual Result: Jaguars 23, Falcons 7
- Expected Score: Jaguars 16, Falcons 16
- Swing: 16 points, 45.4% win probability
Desmond Ridder's two interceptions were the big story in this one, with the first swinging this game massively.
The Falcons had finally reached Jacksonville territory after grabbing three first downs. That's when Ridder was picked by Darious Williams, who returned it 61 yards to the house to give Jacksonville a 17-0 lead. That single play produced -9.8 EPA and a nearly 15% win-probability swing on its own.
In the second half, all four of the Falcons' drives reached Jaguars territory, including a drive that reached the Jacksonville 6-yard line, but Atlanta came away with just seven points.
A few plays here and there were how the Jaguars moved from the worst beat in consecutive weeks, to a top-two spot in this week's luck department.
Funny how luck seems to regress eventually, right?
3. Chicago Bears (+3)
- Actual Result: Broncos 31, Bears 28
- Expected Score: Bears 24, Broncos 18
- Swing: 8 points, 23.5% win probability
In the battle of the two worst defenses in the league, Denver prevailed despite our Expected Score showing Chicago was expected to win.
Just some simple box score browsing shows how dominant the Bears were. They outgained Denver 471-311, including 26 first downs to the Broncos' 17. However, the Bears were stymied by several solid drives ending in no points.
They ended the first half with a seven-play, 31-yard drive that ran out of time. In the second half, a Justin Fields fumble on a play that started in Broncos territory was recovered by Denver and returned for a touchdown. The very next drive, the Bears drove 11 plays and 57 yards into the red zone, but came away empty handed on a fourth-and-1 situation.
The long-drive futility continued on Chicago's final possession after reaching midfield when Fields was eventually picked off, sealing the win for Denver.
