NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.
Let’s break down five prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 4 main slate:
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
The Pick: Over 3.5 receptions (-130)
FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10
Jefferson is coming off an absolutely massive game in Week 3. He finished with a team-high nine targets, and he turned those targets into seven catches for 175 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, he operated as the Vikings' clear No. 2 WR, playing on 78% of their offensive snaps. That represented a solid increase compared to his mark of 54% in Week 2 and ranked behind only Adam Thielen among the Vikings’ WRs.
Jefferson has played the majority of his snaps in the slot this season, which should set him up for success against the Colts. Vernon Hargreaves III has served as the Colts slot corner, and he owns one of the worst grades at the position according to Pro Football Focus.
This may be the last opportunity we have to buy low on Jefferson, so I’m taking advantage.
Chargers WR Keenan Allen
The Pick: Over 4.5 receptions (-143)
FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10
The Chargers were forced to make a change at the QB position following the medical mishap with Tyrod Taylor, and Keenan Allen has been one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s logged at least 10 targets each of the past two weeks with Justin Herbert at QB, including a whopping 19 targets in Week 3 against the Panthers. Overall, he’s logged at least seven catches in both games with Herbert, and he leads the league in target market share with Herbert under center.
With that in mind, why is this number so low? Allen seems like a lock for double-digit targets, so he doesn’t even need to be that efficient to hit the over on 4.5 catches. The Bucs have a solid defense — they currently rank third in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA — but Allen’s matchup is significantly better than some of his teammates’. He could also see a few additional targets with Mike Williams out of the lineup.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
The Pick: Under 62.5 receiving yards (-114)
FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10
Lamb has gotten off to a solid start in his rookie campaign. He’s averaged 76.7 yards per game through his first three contests, and he’s logged at least 65 yards in each of his past two games.
That said, the Cowboys’ passing offense is due for some major regression moving forward.
They have fallen behind in each of their past two contests, which means they’ve had to air the ball out a ton. Dak Prescott has racked up at least 450 passing yards in each of his past two games, which has inflated the yardage numbers for all of his pass catchers. That number is obviously unsustainable moving forward and should be significantly lower if the Cowboys can start keeping games competitive.
Lamb was also on the field for just 60% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps last week. He’s clearly the No. 3 WR on the team, but Noah Brown and Cedrick Wilson Jr. are both going to continue to factor into the equation.
Dolphins WR Isaiah Ford
The Pick: Under 37.5 receiving yards (-114)
FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10
The Dolphins are in an excellent spot for offense this week vs. the Seahawks. Their defense has struggled this season, ranking just 29th in pass defense DVOA, and the total on this game sits at 54.0 points. The spread has also dropped from Dolphins +6.5 to Dolphins +5.0 despite receiving just 29% of the spread bets, so the sharps clearly think the Dolphins can put up some points in this contest.
Still, this line seems a bit too high for Ford. He had a great game in Week 2 — he finished with seven catches for 76 yards — but that looks like a clear outlier. He hasn’t finished with more than two catches or 14 yards in either of his other contests this season. Ford also played on just 44% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps last week, which was his lowest mark of the year.
Bears WR Anthony Miller
The Picks: Over 2.5 receptions (+118) & Over 26.5 receiving yards (-130)
FantasyLabs Grades: 10 out of 10
Miller has had a relatively quiet start to the season. He’s averaged just under five targets per game, and he’s turned those targets into just six total catches.
That said, Miller has the potential to see a nice bump in value with Nick Foles at QB. He saw two targets from Foles in just the fourth quarter alone in Week 3, and Miller should be more efficient with his targets with Foles compared to Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky has posted a completion percentage of 59.3% and an adjusted yards per attempt of 6.5 this season, and Foles owns marks of 61.8% and 7.0 for his career.
