We have another tripleheader this week with the late slate of NFL Week 4 games. The Jimmy Garoppolo-less Raiders will face the Chargers, while the Patriots go for a second straight win in Dallas and the 49ers face the Cardinals as huge favorites.
Check out the four bets our experts are on for the Week 4 late slate below.
NFL Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Raiders vs. Chargers
By Billy Ward
Part of my process every week is looking through the Action Labs props tool and picking out the bets that stand out based on Sean Koerner's projections. While we don't want to blindly tail these — since the mean projection and median are inherently different — but it's a good starting point.
One that jumped off the page this week is Joshua Kelley rushing yards unders. Kelley was forced into a starting role for the Chargers with Austin Ekeler going down and has produced 51 rushing yards across two games.
Some of that is due to inefficiency, as he's averaging just over two yards per carry in that time frame. While he gets a pass against the Titans — who rank 3rd in DVOA against the run — it's inexcusable against a Vikings defense that ranks 24th.
While the Raiders aren't a great rushing defense by any stretch, they've been better than the Vikings this season. They check in at 22nd in DVOA against the run. That's slightly ahead of Minnesota, who bottled Kelley up for just 1.1 yards per carry.
The other issue is with his volume. The Chargers rank top five in pass rate over expectation, throwing the ball about 5% more than we'd expect given the game scripts they've played in. While they're favored against the Raiders, that still doesn't mean they'll rely heavily on the run.
If this one gets out of hand — possibly due to Jimmy G missing the game — it's also possible Kelley could get pulled down the stretch. I don't see the Chargers force-feeding him in a blowout. There's also the possibility that Austin Ekeler comes back, which would add tremendous value to this bet even if Ekeler is severely limited.
This bet has a solid shot of cashing with Ekeler inactive, and is a borderline free square with him active. Assuming the latter is the case — he's currently doubtful — I'd bet this one down to 49.5 at -110
Pick: Joshua Kelley Under 53.5 Rushing Yards
Patriots vs. Cowboys
These were my top two defenses entering the season and both have looked pretty good so far, outside of Dallas getting gashed in the run game by Arizona last week. I like both defenses to have good games in winnable matchups each way, especially with the offensive lines looking so messy for both sides.
Dallas has allowed 12.7 points per game on the season, and the Patriots have yet to score 20. New England's defense is allowing just 19.7 points per game itself despite a difficult schedule. New England games were at 42 or below in nine of 17 games last season, and both teams have gone under this in two of their three games. Mac Jones road unders are 10-6 for his career (63%).
This was a Hot Read pick for me and the line dropped at first, then rose, and now has settled back around where it started. The injury report for the offensive lines is slightly more optimistic now but I still like the under, especially right above a couple of key numbers. I'm expecting a stodgy, defensive game.
Pick: Under 43.5
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Patriots vs. Cowboys
While last season was a disaster for the Patriots offense, this year has gone better in terms of play-calling. The Patriots are playing at the second-fastest pace in the NFL this season, running an average of 72.7 plays per game.
Additionally, outside of Week 3 against the Jets, the Pats are passing the ball on 68.5% of plays. That's relevant for this matchup and our pick.
The Patriots are 6.5-point underdogs this week against Dallas, and Mac Jones is likely to be active. He has attempted 42 and 54 passes in the last two games in which New England was trailing. I see that as likely to be the case here, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar total.
Pick: Mac Jones Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-108)
Cardinals vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
Brock Purdy has only thrown four interceptions in 11 NFL career starts, including the playoffs, which is why this line is so inflated. However, Purdy has been a bit lucky in his career.
Purdy’s turnover-worthy play rates (TWP%) of 3.5% last season and 3.7% this year suggest a QB that’s right around the league average. That’s backed up by his bad ball rate (BB%), which at 11.38%, per The Power Rank, puts him right in line with the league average, as well.
Thus, we should expect his interception rate to also hover around the league average, but it’s been anything but that. His four INTs in 324 attempts equates to a 1.2% INT rate compared to an NFL average around 2.3%.
Now, Purdy faces an Arizona Cardinals defense that has been surprisingly potent at forcing bad balls. Their 23 passes defended on just 108 pass attempts faced equates to a BB% of 21.3%, which is nearly double the league average. Sure, we can expect that to come down a bit, but it’s certainly an early indication that Arizona may be better than average at this metric.
That’s especially true considering Arizona has faced Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott, two QBs whose long-term BB% hovers around the league average.
Sam Howell is the other QB the Cardinals faced this season and while he’s quite poor, his BB% of nearly 15% isn’t enough to pull the overall average of three QBs up too high. Considering Howell threw the fewest attempts of the three QBs Arizona has faced so far, that rings even more true.
If Brock Purdy’s BB% and TWP% are any indication, then this Arizona defense stands a good shot of picking off one of his passes.
While I do have him around +115 to throw an INT based on a 28.5 attempt projection, that’s a long way off from +280.
