Somehow, someway, the Titans vs. Jets game this Sunday has more individual bets on it at BetMGM than Tom Brady's homecoming to New England does.
In fact, this absolute stinker between the Titans — who look relatively hapless on defense — and the Jets — who look relatively hapless everywhere — has the most tickets overall at the sportsbook.
And the Titans are the most popular team at BetMGM this week despite the fact that Tennessee's top-two receivers may not suit up on Sunday.
A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both haven't practiced this week after sustaining hamstring injuries against the Colts last Sunday.
Brown isn't expected to play while Jones figures to be a game-time decision.
The Titans are also in the bottom 20% in DVOA so far this season.
And yet, the public hates the Jets so much that fading them against an average team is more popular than betting on Tom Brady and the Bucs when they visit New England for the most anticipated regular season game in years.
It's not only Brady's first game in Foxborough since he left for the Bucs in 2020 — the greatest of all-time will also likely pass Drew Brees' all-time passing yards record of 80,358.
About 77% of the total money and 67% of the tickets are on the Titans to beat the Jets by at least seven points.
That line had opened at -6.5 and shortened despite the injuries.
The moneyline had opened at Titans -250 before shortening to its current mark of -300. About 85% of the bets and roughly 75% of the money is on the Titans to win.
As for the Buccaneers vs. Patriots game, Tampa is the second-most bet on team in the country this week.
The Bucs have the most overall handle on them to beat the Patriots by at least seven points.
An absolutely outrageous 92% of the money is on the Bucs -7, and yet the line hasn't moved an inch since Tuesday.
Many other books have over 95% of their money tied up on the Buccaneers' spread.
PointsBet director of trading Jay Croucher had told The Action Network earlier this week that the book was comfortable with holding at -7 and taking obscenely lopsided action on the Buccaneers.
They're comfortable with the spread and will live with the consequences — just as bettors do on the day-to-day.
It worked for them during Super Bowl LV, when the Chiefs got hammered at the key number of -3, and sportsbook made out like bandits with the money when the Chiefs lost to the Bucs 31-9.
The Bucs have better personnel at almost every position relative to the Patriots and Brady, obviously, very badly wants to win this game.
But Bill Belichick knows his former quarterback.
And Belichick has a track record of shutting down elite offenses with innovative defensive schemes that he's never used before.
Think against the Rams in the Super Bowl in 2002, against the Peyton Manning-led Colts in the mid oughts and most recently against the Sean McVay-Jared Goff LA Rams in 2019's Super Bowl.
Every major American sportsbook has held firm at -7 for this Bucs v. Pats game, though if one folds and moves its line, it's likely others will follow suit.
At BetMGM, the Bucs spread is the most popular pick in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wyoming.
The Bucs moneyline at -300 also has 95% of the money. That line had opened at -225.
