NFL Odds & Picks
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Derek Farnsworth: Let me start by saying I am one of the biggest Jaguars fans you are going to find — granted, there are very few of us out there.
While they currently find themselves second in Football Outsiders' total DVOA, the Jaguars have faced three pocket passers in Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and a banged-up Justin Herbert. A second straight road game is on tap against a very different kind of quarterback in Jalen Hurts.
Facing Hurts and the Eagles offensive line will be nothing like their first three matchups. At this point, I'll take my chances with the Eagles in any matchup at home.
The market has a ton of respect for Jacksonville right now, which is why we are getting a 6.5-point spread. I expect the Eagles to continue their dominance and don't mind looking at some adjusted lines (like Philly to win by double digits).
Bet Eagles -6.5 at FanDuel Right Now
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Brandon Anderson: This is a pivotal game for the battle atop the AFC South. Both teams looked out of it a week ago before saving their season with wins that weren’t exactly pretty and continue to have pretty underwhelming profiles.
Both teams are built old school around run games that haven’t been as good this year with underwhelming offensive line play. Each ranks bottom 10 in rushing DVOA, and the Colts offense is a pathetic 31st in EPA per play and dead last in DVOA. Indy’s line has been bad, and Matt Ryan has been worse. The Titans have actually passed the ball well, so Ryan Tannehill can be the difference maker if Tennessee unleashes its passing attack.
Tannehill had six TDs against the Colts last year, and the road team has won six of the last seven in this rivalry. Tannehill is 33-39 SU lifetime as an underdog, including 11-7 with Tennessee. Mike Vrabel has been even better at 18-7 ATS (72%) as an underdog of over three, going 17-8 SU in those games with a 102% ROI on the moneyline. Road division underdogs of between three and seven points have covered 56% of the time historically.
I smell an upset — or is that just the Colts’ stank? Sprinkle the moneyline too.
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John LanFranca: Any time I can fade one of the worst offenses in the NFL and get points doing it, I am going to be highly interested.
The Titans have the best overall team DVOA league in the first half of football games this year. If they play well early in this game, the Colts simply do not have the firepower to play catch up. Indianapolis has only scored on eight of their 35 offensive possessions in 2022, the worst rate in the NFL.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Titans’ passing offense has been pretty good to open the season, ranking 8th in DVOA. Tannehill should be comfortable in the pocket taking on the 29th ranked defense in pressure rate against opposing passers. Tannehill is averaging a hearty 8.8 yards per attempt when he is not under duress.
Matt Ryan has a negative EPA (expected points added) when he drops back to pass. The road team has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams outright. Mike Vrabel is 18-7 (72%) against the spread as an underdog. I will gladly take the points with the Titans in this one.
I'd play the Titans down to +3 in this one.
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Cody Goggin: The Falcons have been a fun story so far this season, but the Browns have been sliding under the radar with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Most would not be aware of this, but Brissett is eighth in the league with 0.178 EPA per play. This has led to the Browns being sixth in offensive EPA this year as their running game has far and away been the best in the NFL.
Cleveland’s running game is averaging 0.166 EPA per play. To put that into perspective, that’s more than double the next closest team (0.082). Its rushing attack is more efficient than all but seven passing offenses in the league.
This week, Cleveland’s trenches give them a massive advantage over Atlanta. Per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, the Browns have a 34% pass blocking advantage and a 29% rush blocking advantage. This is the biggest difference between two teams in pass blocking this week, and the second biggest difference in run blocking advantages.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 27th by DVOA and is 32nd in success rate against the run. The Falcons have been solid in coverage grades this season, but that’s not going to save them from what Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be able to do.
By my numbers, this game should be closer to Browns -3 (despite them being on the road), so I am willing to take them for anything -2.5 or lower.
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Simon Hunter: My favorite gross road 'dog of the week!
Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense have played better than I expected coming into the season, with all the key weapons healthy and producing relatively well. What a gift this matchup is, facing a Lions defense that ranks in the bottom five in most significant categories.
The Lions are down starting RB De'Andre Swift, their top-two receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark, as well as a starting offensive lineman. To me, that's too much to overcome.
If Goff has high-level talent around him, great. Take away his biggest weapons, though, and he turns back into a pumpkin.
I'm happy to buy low on Seattle here. What many see as a potential shootout, I see as a one-sided game. I'd bet the Seahawks down to +2.
Quickslip: Bet Seahawks +3.5 at FanDuel
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Dylan Wilkerson: The Lions have the capability to rattle off explosive runs, averaging almost six yards per rush (1st in the NFL).
The Seahawks convert nearly 50% of the time on 3rd down, both offenses are in the top half of the league in scoring % per drive and the Seahawks' defense allows a score on almost 52% of drives.
Even with the Lions missing key players, I expect to see fireworks. Take this pick up to 48.
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Kody Malstrom: It's not every day the starting quarterback returns from injury and is actually deemed s a downgrade, but that is exactly what we have here with Zach Wilson taking over for Joe Flacco.
While Pittburgh's defense took a massive hit with the T.J. Watt injury, this is still a formidable unit that will wreak havoc in Wilson's debut.
All the historic trends are in our favor with Tomlin going 15-9 ATS after a loss with extra time to prepare and Saleh going 7-13 ATS.
While it's never settling to stake our money on Mitch Trubisky playing behind horrific offensive line, the Jets defense poses little threat in regards to generating pressure and their secondary has been getting cooked all season.
Back the Steelers at -3 or better in what will be a rebound game.
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