NFL Week 4 Picks for All 12 Afternoon Games on Sunday

NFL Week 4 Picks

Bills vs.

Ravens

Phillip Kall: At the start of the week, I had no idea which side to turn to in this game. It felt like picking one team was essentially trying to call who would have the ball last.

Then I hopped to the Action App to see how our experts were picking this game. Astonishingly, it was clear 12-0 that the Ravens were the side they liked. The betting agreed, with 80% of the money is on the Ravens to cover.

After checking for what I had been missing, it was the weather. Rarely, impactful early in the year but in Baltimore there is a 90% chance of rain with 10-15 mph winds.

This pushed the game from who can make more plays to which offense will make fewer mistakes? This made the answer clear: Baltimore.

With wet and windy weather, the Ravens have the edge. Baltimore ranks 13th in run block grade, according to Pro Football Focus, while Buffalo is dead last.

Also, bad weather means your mistakes are amplified. I mentioned Buffalo being beaten up and struggling to force those plays last week. The Bills will also likely put the ball in harm's way more than the Ravens. Jackson's turnover-worthy play rate is only 2.9% compared to Allen’s 5.2% per PFF.

Follow the money and the experts. Trust Baltimore in a weather-stricken game.

Bet Ravens +3 at FanDuel Right Now

Commanders vs.

Cowboys

Landon Silinsky: We know Washington will come out throwing, but I also expect Dallas will have a pass-centric game plan against the porous Commanders secondary. More pass attempts mean more clock stoppages and more plays.

There is absolutely a chance for some big plays here — on both sides of the ball  — and I like this game to clear the 41.5 total.

Pick: Over 41.5 | Bet to 42

Titans vs.

Colts

Dylan Wilkerson:But they try, and that’s what matters.

Matt Ryan has thrown the ball 117 times in the first three weeks of the season for an average of 39 pass attempts a game. The Colts can toss the pigskin around and even if the result of the drive is not what they want, they can at least say they tried.

With Frank Reich on the hot seat,  he knows that to beat the Titans the Colts will have to throw the ball quickly and often.

Let’s just hope Ryan takes his Ibuprofen before the game.

Bet Now at FanDuel: Matt Ryan Over 31.5 Pass Attempts | Bet to 35.5

Browns vs.

Falcons

Blake Krass: I think both of these teams have underrated offenses and have had underrated quarterback play so far this season. The balanced attack that both teams bring will make it difficult for the opposing staff to slow down the opposition.

I'm going with the over here because I think both offenses will be able to move the ball up and down the field and turn those long drives into touchdowns. The strong rushing attacks should be able to exploit the weaknesses of opposing defenses.

I like the current number of 47 or 47.5 because a 28-20 or 27-21 game gets you to the window. However, I would play to 48.5 as I see this being more of a 28-21, or 28-24 type of game. It should be another one-possession game for both of these teams.

Bet Over 47.5 at FanDuel | Play to 48.5

Jets vs.

Steelers

The Great Foosini: Given the total, this game is expected to be incredibly ugly, but I think there is value on the New York Jets. I have this game projected at 2.8 points to the favorite, so I expect the Steelers to win. However, I have Pittsburgh rated slightly lower than the rest of the market.

I like the Jets with Wilson back at the helm. He should bring more explosiveness than we've seen so far and will hopefully fulfill his destiny as the next great Jets quarterback.

Pick: Back the Jets at +3.5 at FanDuel | Bet to 3

Jaguars vs.

Eagles

Anthony Dabbundo: Our Action Network pro projection has this total at 47.5. Given that both offenses are top five in efficiency, the total sitting at 45.5 seems too low. The Eagles did go under their last two games, but that was more a function of blowouts than anything else.

The Jaguars' defensive backfield showed plenty of flaws against Wentz in Week 1 and will probably get exposed again facing a well protected and healthy quarterback this week.

Even if Jacksonville is down multiple scores, the accuracy of Lawrence and the conservatism of Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is sure to leave plenty of backdoor points available.

This total is a touch low because of the strong under trend across the league and the potential for bad weather in Philly. Given the rain doesn't look particularly heavy on Sunday and the moderate projected winds are insignificant, this is a contrarian over play for me.

You may want to monitor for more weather news that could drive this total down below the key number of 45. But I'd still play the over at 45.5 barring a major change in the forecast.

Bet Over 45.5 on FanDuel Right Now

Seahawks vs.

Lions

Kody Malstrom: I was a lot more confident in the over heading into this game before Swift, St. Brown and Chark were ruled out. Though the total has ticked down, I still like the number but will play it at a much smaller position.

The Lions offense still has enough weapons to do their part while the Seahawks have been a sneaky good offensive unit themselves.

Both teams field horrific defenses, mainly in the secondary, that can make any offense look good. I don't expect either unit to figure out a solution anytime soon.

Take the over at any number lower than 49. There could also be live opportunities to add on should either side start slow.

Bet Over 47.5 Right Now at FanDuel

Bears vs.

Giants

Cody Goggin: To be frank, there’s a reason why this game has a total of 39.5 points with the home team being favored by the traditional home field advantage value.

Both of these teams are among the worst in the league and the margin between the two is small. However, I do think that Fields will be better throwing the ball this weekend and will face less pressure against the Giants, particularly with Leonard Williams sidelined.

At a neutral site, my own model has the Bears by 2.5 points so it believes that this line should be close to even. I’ll take the Bears at the key number of three and would bet them down as low as +2.

Bet Bears +3 at FanDuel | Bet to Bears +2

Chargers vs.

Texans

John LanFranca:Teams with a losing record that find themselves as road favorites of greater than three points are 12-4 (75%) against the spread since the beginning of 2021.

I am even more confident the Chargers won’t overlook the Texans because of what happened a season ago when they traveled to Houston and gave up 189 rushing yards. I expect a focused and motivated Chargers team that knows it can't afford to drop to 1-3.

Bet Chargers -5.5 at FanDuel | Play to -6

Cardinals vs.

Panthers

John LanFranca:It’s well well documented that the Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have been highly profitable as underdogs as Kingsbury is 19-9-2 (68%) against the spread when catching points.

In comparison, Matt Rhule has failed when listed as the favorite. In his time in Carolina, Rhule is 3-10 (23%) ATS when the Panthers are expected to win. His quarterback has not fared much better either.

Baker Mayfield is 11-22-1 (33.3%) in his career as a favorite and home-field advantage hasn't done much to save him as he is 7-13-1 (35%) as a home favorite.

One reason road underdogs are so profitable is simply because bettors do not like to wager on inferior teams — especially when they won’t be feeding off the home crowd.

In this case, we actually get the superior team, whose difficult early season schedule has given us several points of value. It’s not often you can get points versus the 32nd-ranked signal caller, according to QBR. The wrong team is favored in this game Sunday.

Bet Cardinals -1.5 on FanDuel | Play to -2.5

Packers vs.

Patriots

Anthony Dabbundo: The trends on Bill Belichick off of a loss in the NFL are hard to ignore. He is 36-13 straight up (73.5%) and 38-10 (79.2%)  against the spread when the Patriots are favored by less than a touchdown, or are an underdog after losing. The Patriots didn't cover the -3 late closing line against the Steelers but they did cover most numbers in a bounce back win in Week 2 after losing in Week 1 to Miami.

The downgrade from Jones to Hoyer is definitely worth a few points, but this isn't the first time Belichick has had a backup quarterback. The Patriots covered three of their last five games when the starter was out.

The market overreacted to the downgrade from Jones to Hoyer and some money came and bought back the Patriots as a double-digit underdog. The 10s aren't there right now, but it's probably worth waiting until closer to kickoff to see if you can't get a 10.

There's asymmetric risk in the line movement, where it doesn't matter much if the line dips to 8.5 or 9, but you gain more value if it does get back to 10. I'd still bet the Patriots at +9 or better, but try to see if a 10 is available.

Bet Patriots +9.5 at FanDuel | Play to +9

Broncos vs.

Raiders

Cody Goggin:The Broncos' team total is set at 21.5 points. If their red zone scoring percentages can regress towards normal, I really like them to hit this number. Wilson hasn’t shown it yet with his new team, but he is still able to throw downfield and the Denver offense will get it going at some point.

My number on this is 23.3, so I would bet Denver all the way to over 23.5 points as I think that it will get it going against Las Vegas.

Bet the Broncos Team Total Right Now at FanDuel

The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW