It’s Week 4 … which means there’s only two more opportunities until mid November for Taylor to cheer on Travis before she’s back on tour. I’m sad too Travis. (Disclaimer: I do not think Taylor has anything to do with Travis looking so sad or not playing great and if you think that’s the case, respectfully, please grow up.)
While I hate to see Travis looking so sad, I really relate to it. That is me realizing Taylor won’t be part of my NFL weekends soon. It’s also me realizing I probably won’t get to see the Eras Tour again. But one of YOU will get to see the Eras Tour just because you played this fun little game!
For anyone new — it’s six picks a week. Two about Taylor, four about the Chiefs game and a bonus question with the answer somewhere in this article. You can earn up to 13 points a week and those points turn into entries for the grand prize drawing that will send two people on a trip to Vancouver to see the final leg of the tour.
For a detailed explanation of how to play our Eras Tour tickets NFL picks contest, click here!
Last Week: Chiefs vs. Falcons Week 3 Recap
Okay let’s very quickly recap last week. It was a sad one with no Taylor at the game … I mean, why even watch? I’m kidding … kind of. While the Chiefs came out on top, Travis Kelce had another tough game with four catches for 30 yards and no touchdowns.
A sad day for Tayvis fans.
- Will there be a Taylor feature in the Sunday Night Football Intro?No
- Will there be over or under 1.5 Taylor references in the first quarter?Under
- Who will cover the spread?Chiefs -3.5
- Will the total points scored be over or under 46.5? Under (39)
- Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown?No
- Will Travis Kelce go over or under 48.5 receiving yards?Under (30)
- Bonus! Which Falcon has stated he hopes Taylor is in the game for a long time? Kirk Cousins
NFL Week 4 Picks: Chiefs at Chargers
The Chiefs are heading out West this week to a venue Swifties might be a bit familiar with — SoFi Stadium. If you’re anything like me you may have watched the Eras Tour movie that was filmed there about a hundred times.
Anyway, let’s dive into this week’s picks.
Taylor Swift Picks for Chiefs-Chargers (TAYLOR’S VERSION)
Who will be in the suite with Taylor Swift this week?
I can only HOPE Taylor makes an appearance at this game and rolls deep with her squad considering it’s in L.A. That’s the first question you’ll answer this week. And remember, no Taylor at the game means you automatically win those points!
I’m hoping for some Hollywood fanfare this week, but your guess is as good as mine for this prop.
How many Taylor Swift appearances or references in the first half? Over/Under 1.5
Next prop is whether there will be over or under 1.5 Taylor appearances or references in the first half. If you’re new to gambling, of course we can’t get half an appearance or reference. You’ll go with the over if you think there will be two or more, and the under if you think there will be one or none.
The Picks: Selena Gomez & HAIM; Under 1.5 Taylor appearances/references
Betting Picks for Chiefs vs. Chargers: ELECTRIC TOUCH?
Pick 1: The Spread — Chiefs -8 or Chargers +8
Do the Chargers have the electric touch to cover the spread against the Chiefs? What does that mean? The point spread is a number set by oddsmakers almost like a “handicap.” It’s basically the expected final score difference. Teams with a + number are the underdog, and a – number means they’re the favorite.
The Chiefs are the favorite for the fourth straight week, while the Chargers are getting eight points. You pick the Chiefs if you think they’ll win by eight or more points and the Chargers if you think they’ll win or they’ll lose by eight or fewer points.
My boss, Chad Millman (not one of those Chads) and my colleague, professional gambler Simon Hunter, talked about this game on their podcast The Favorites on Tuesday. They love the Chargers getting eight points here and I tend to agree. All of the Chiefs’ outings this year have been one-score games that have come down to the wire.
Additionally, as a favorite of seven points or more, Patrick Mahomes is 22-27-2 ATS (against the spread) in his career; on the road that falls to just 5-10-1 ATS. Plus, as a favorite of seven-plus points, he is 10-12-1 ATS vs. AFC West teams (and the Chargers are an AFC West team).
The Pick: Chargers +8
Pick 2: The Total — Over/Under 40 | IS IT OVER NOW?
When you hear people talking about the over/under in sports betting, they’re typically talking about the total number of points scored in the game.
This week’s total is pretty low in comparison to the last three weeks. You’ll decide whether or not you think there will be over or under 40 total points scored in the game.
The first two Chiefs games the over hit, but last week the under hit. All three Chargers’ games this season have gone under. The Chargers will be playing with a backup quarterback, while the Chiefs have had some offensive struggles. I can’t make my final decision yet but I lean to the under.
The Pick: Lean Under
Picks 3 & 4: Travis Kelce props | DOWN BAD
Will Travis Kelce go Over/Under 45.5 receiving yards? Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown?
Poor Travis may be down bad crying at the gym after a rocky start to the season. Three games in he has just eight receptions for 69 yards. Let’s put that into perspective. Including the playoffs last season, Travis averaged 70 yards per game. Right now, he’s averaging just 23 yards per game. He had just two games all of last season with less than 23 yards.
Now this week has been full of dramatic commentary about what’s going on with Travis … and you won’t be getting any silly speculation from me. However, you will be getting a change of heart from me because I simply can’t bet the overs for his props right now.
Honestly, I hope this is a reverse psychology type thing and he has a breakout game because I don’t want to see him all sad on the bench again. And that’s a real possibility. In his last six games against the Chargers, dating back to 2020, Travis averaged over 120 yards per game and scored seven touchdowns.
The Picks: Travis Kelce Under 45.5 receiving yards | Travis Kelce no TD
LONG STORY SHORT
This is me trying to help someone get to the Eras Tour so I hope you’ll join us for the rest of Tix Pick 6. There are seven weeks left including this week, which means you have the chance to get up to 91 entries in the grand prize drawing. And don’t worry, we’ll still have some fun questions for the Chiefs' bye week and when Taylor is back on tour.
I’ll update this article if any additional information comes out that might be important for you to make your decisions. And remember, you can always resubmit your picks if you change your mind before the game.
NFL Week 4 Picks for x-x & Our Free Taylor Swift Picks Contest
- Who will be in the suite with Taylor Swift this week? Selena Gomez & HAIM
- How many Taylor Swift appearances or references in the first half? Under 1.5
- Spread: Chargers +8
- Total: Lean Under 40
- Will Travis Kelce go Over/Under 45.5 receiving yards? Under
- Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown? No
Good luck this week! 1…2…3… LGB!
