I've made my NFL predictions for the Sunday afternoon slate of Week 4. I'm backing two underdogs to cover the spread and one favorite on the moneyline as part of my NFL predictions and picks.
NFL betting expert Chris Raybon has hit 57% of the bets he has tracked for a 7.33% ROI in his career at Action Network and is up over 116 units in the Action Network app.
In looking at the latest NFL odds, the 49ers are the biggest favorite of the slate at 10.5 points at home against the Patriots, with the Jets next, laying 8 to the Broncos at home. The biggest matchup of the late slate of games is Chiefs vs. Chargers, with Ravens vs. Bills capping the day on Sunday Night Football.
On our public betting page, you'll see that the most popular team on the Sunday slate is the Vikings with 79% of bets on the spread, and I have a bet on that game today. The Bengals are getting the biggest percentage of the money at 83% on the road against the Panthers.
On to my NFL Week 4 predictions and my NFL picks for Vikings vs Packers, Steelers vs Colts and Rams vs Bears on Sunday.
NFL Week 4 Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chris Raybon's Week 4 NFL Picks and Best Bets
Pick Against the Spread for Steelers vs. Colts
- Steelers vs Colts Spread: Steelers -2.5
- Steelers vs Colts Total: Over/Under 40.5
This is a buy-low spot on the Colts and a sell-high spot for the Steelers.
The Steelers defense has been strong, but they will be without linebacker Alex Highsmith. While Anthony Richardson has been erratic, the Colts still have the No. 1-graded pass-blocking (85.8) and run-blocking (82.3) units in the NFL, according to PFF.
The Steelers faced Kirk Cousins in his first start with a new team coming off a torn Achilles, rookie Bo Nix in his second career start, and an injured Justin Herbert/Taylor Heinicke combo behind an injured offensive line, so facing an athletic quarterback in Richardson — flanked by Jonathan Taylor behind the league’s best offensive line — is arguably Pittsburgh’s toughest matchup yet.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have gone 3-0 despite an offense that ranks 24th in points (17.0) and total yards (289.0) per game. Overall, these teams have been on opposite ends of the luck spectrum, with the Colts clocking in as the second-unluckiest team in our Luck Rankings while the Steelers are the 11th-luckiest.
Historically, this has been a letdown spot for Pittsburgh. Per our Action Labs data, the Steelers are just 10-23 (30%) ATS as a road favorite when coming off a win and facing a team with a losing record.
Pick: Colts +2.5 | Play to +1
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Vikings vs. Packers Underdog Spread Bet
- Vikings vs Packers Spread: Packers -3
- Vikings vs Packers Total: Over/Under 44
The Packers picked up a couple of wins with Malik Willis under center, so it’s easy to assume they’ll be a juggernaut with Jordan Love back at quarterback. However, Love is unlikely to be 100% and the Vikings defense is a big step up in class from the Eagles, Colts and Titans.
The Vikings rank first in defensive DVOA and haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game. In Week 2, they held the 49ers to 17 points while sacking Brock Purdy six times and turning him over twice. In Week 3, they held the Texans to just seven points while sacking C.J. Stroud four times and intercepting him twice. Asking Love to play at less than 100% and prepare for a ferocious Brian Flores defense that throws out multiple looks is a tough ask.
Meanwhile, the Packers defense got scorched for 34 points and 410 yards by the only legit offense they faced (Eagles), and has benefitted from nine takeaways, which isn’t sustainable. The Vikings are seventh in points per drive and should be even more efficient with WR Jordan Addison (ankle) likely to return this week.
Green Bay has a +17 point differential aided by a +7 turnover differential. Minnesota has a +55 point differential despite a turnover differential of just +2 and a tougher schedule.
Per our Action Labs data, Week 4 'dogs facing favorites on a 1-2 game winning streak are 62-41 (60%) ATS since 2005, covering by 2.2 points per game.
Pick: Vikings +3 | Play to +2
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Best Week 4 Bet on the Moneyline: Rams vs Bears
- Rams vs Bears Moneyline: Rams+ 125 | Bears -148
- Rams vs Bears Spread: Bears -3
- Rams vs Bears Total: Over/Under 40.5
The records of these two teams are deceiving. The Bears are 1-2, but their two losses came by six and five points; the Rams are 2-1 but were down 14+ points in the second half in all three of their games.
The Bears' issues are a lot more correctable. They amount to rookie growing pains for Caleb Williams, and some questionable personnel and play-calling decisions from the coaching staff.
We’ve already seen Williams take a step forward with 363 yards and 2 TDs last week against the Colts. And the coaching staff has played Cole Kmet over Gerald Everett at tight end the last two games and vowed to give Roschon Johnson a longer look at running back this week. This could be a breakout game for the Bears offense against a Rams defense that ranks 31st in DVOA.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is without Cooper Kupp (out; ankle) and Puka Nacua (IR; knee). The Rams also own a league-worst 33.5 PFF pass-blocking grade. They face a Bears team that is eighth in defensive DVOA and sixth against the pass.
Per our Director of Research Evan Abrams, teams coming off a 14-plus comeback in their previous game are 51-68 SU (43%) and 49-70-1 ATS (41.2%).
Pick: Bears Moneyline (-150) | Play to -165
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- Broncos vs. Jets Spread: Jets -8
- Bengals vs. Panthers Spread: Bengals -4.5
- Eagles vs. Buccaneers Spread: Eagles -1
- Rams vs. Bears Spread: Bears -3
- Saints vs. Falcons Spread: Falcons -2.5
- Jaguars vs. Texans Spread: Texans -5.5
- Vikings vs. Packers Spread: Packers -2.5
- Steelers vs. Colts Spread: Steelers -2.5
- Patriots vs. 49ers Spread: 49ers -10.5
- Commanders vs. Cardinals Spread: Cardinals -3.5
- Chiefs vs. Chargers Spread: Chiefs -7.5
- Browns vs. Raiders Spread: Browns -2.5
- Bills vs. Ravens Spread: Ravens -2.5
- Titans vs. Dolphins Spread: Dolphins -2.5
- Seahawks vs. Lions Spread: Lions -3.5
