Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you're able to get the bets in as quickly as possible. Fortunately, the spread I bet on Sunday night for Week 4 has stayed put despite the action being one-sided.
Here are the NFL Week 4 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 4 Picks, Predictions
This is what the Cowboys do.
Dallas gets blown out (despite the late comeback against the Ravens) and wipes the floor with bad teams. This is a great bounce-back spot on Thursday Night Football.
The Giants were surprise winners in Week 3, taking down the Giants as 6.5-point road underdogs. That was a great matchup, though, as Deshaun Watson did nothing impressive against New York’s awful secondary. That won’t be the case here against Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
This game fits what the Cowboys defense does best, too. Micah Parsons will lead defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s unit against one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines.
The trends are here, too.
In his career, Prescott covers at a 73% clip against divisional opponents, including a 25-8 record (76%) as a divisional favorite. Also, head coach Mike McCarthy has covered at a 65% clip as a divisional favorite, and he’s 63% against the spread on a short week.
Specifically for this game, the Cowboys have beaten the Giants in 13 of their last 14 meetings. Eleven of those wins came by more than a touchdown.
Sometimes, the best thing after an ugly win (or two, as is the case for the Cowboys) is playing right away on a short week. This one should be a freebie for Dallas, too, against a team it’s clearly better than.
I think this line should be Cowboys -6, maybe even -7, and it might be by kickoff on Thursday night.
I’ve already made alternative plans for Thursday night. This is a set-it-and-forget-it. Bet the Cowboys -4.5 in a get-right snoozer.
Teaser: Jets -1.5 vs. Broncos & Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers
Let's grab a couple of big favorites that we know are good and bet them to simply win.
The Jets are at home on extra rest after playing on short rest in Weeks 2 and 3. Most importantly, Aaron Rodgers looked like Aaron Rodgers last Thursday night.
The Broncos were fine against the Buccaneers in Bo Nix's first career win, and they've been competitive in all three games this season. I was high on the Jets entering the season and still am, so they'll be a different animal for Denver.
Nix still doesn't have a passing touchdown and is not going to beat this Jets defense without making that happen. I also have a hard time believing Rodgers won't perform better than he did against the Patriots since Denver's defense is not at New England's level.
For the Chargers, QB Justin Herbert, LT Rashawn Slater, RT Joe Alt and DE Joey Bosa are all injured. When a team's identity is that it's going to thrive in the trenches and those are your key injuries, that's a problem.
The key here is that the Chargers host the Chiefs before their bye week. If the Chargers lose, they'll be 2-2 but get the Broncos and Cardinals coming out of the bye. They'll have time to rest and could easily be 4-2.
Kansas City has won 17 of 20 games against the Chargers, who haven't beaten the Chiefs at home since 2013. There's also no home-field advantage to speak of here.
I'd try to play -9 or below so you can tease to -3 or lower.
