NFL Odds & Picks
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The 2-1 Jaguars facing the 3-0 Eagles has become one of the more compelling Week 4 matchups. The Eagles are one of the most complete teams in the league and are legit Super Bowl contenders, while the Jaguars have been one of the biggest surprises of 2022 and currently sit atop the AFC South.
The Year 2 leap Trevor Lawrence has made so far has been striking. A lot of it could be due from simply going from an incompetent head coach in Urban Meyer to a competent one in Doug Pederson. After three games, Lawrence ranks sixth in QB rating, sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt and fourth in Expected Points Added per play. He has legitimately played like a top-six QB so far this season.
The Eagles will be Lawrence’s toughest test yet, ranking third in DVOA against the pass. One of their strengths on defense is having two shutdown corners in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. However, the Jaguars top WR Christian Kirk will likely avoid their coverage since he lines up mainly in the slot. His matchup got even better with slot CB Avonte Maddux ruled out.
The Jaguars also have a very efficient rushing attack with James Robinson and Travis Etienne that should be able to find success against an Eagles defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the run.
The Jaguars defense has been one of the biggest suprises of 2022, currently ranking fourth in DVOA (seventh vs. the pass, first against the run). Jacksonville should be able to slow down the potent Eagles offense just enough here and keep this one close. Pederson will be looking to show the world the Jaguars are ready to be taken seriously at the stadium he used to call home.
I’m projecting this closer to Eagles -5 and love getting +6.5 here.
Jaguars +6.5: Place This Bet at FanDuel Right Now
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This sets up to be a low-scoring matchup where both teams are going to lean heavily on their running game.
The Colts managed to hold the Chiefs to just 17 points last week, and I think they matchup even better against Tennessee. The Titans run the ball at the fourth-highest rate on first downs, while the Colts have allowed a league-low 2.6 yards per carry on first downs.
We could see the Titans get into second and long with a running clock quite often here. I still expect the Titans to feed Derrick Henry here, despite facing a Colts defense that ranks second in DVOA against the run.
Matt Ryan and the Colts offense has had a pretty shaky start to the 2022 season, ranking dead last in DVOA on offense (31st in pass, 24th in run). Indy’s 24th-ranked rush attack will surely rise as we get further in the season, starring the NFL’s best RB in Jonathan Taylor.
I’m expecting the Colts to lean on him heavily here as 3.5-point home favorites and continue to be ultra conservative in the passing game, as they have only attempted six passes 20+ yards downfield, the second-lowest rate in the league.
I’m projecting this closer to 41.5.
