Three of the 18 weeks of the NFL regular season are complete, and no team’s stock has soared higher than the Miami Dolphins after their 70-20 demolition of Denver on Sunday. The Colts are somehow alone in first place in the AFC South, just three teams remain unbeaten and four are winless.
The NFL scriptwriters dialed up an all-timer this season by introducing Taylor Swift into the league’s gravitational orbit, and now ‘tis the damn season for some analysis on all 16 Week 4 NFL games, starting with Thursday Night Football.
My picks are 11-3-1 using lines listed in the bets section of this post. Let's get into our NFL Week 4 picks.
| Category |
|---|
| TNF |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| Week 4 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Lions vs. Packers
The Packers played back-to-back nail-biters that involved blowing a lead to the Falcons and then pulling off a comeback against the Saints in consecutive weeks. I trust Matt LaFleur’s prep and game planning in this short-week spot, but I’m also starting to believe the Lions defense might be very improved this year.
Very quietly, the Lions defense ranks in the top seven in yards per play, and the unit hasn't exactly played bad offenses. Seattle, Atlanta and Kansas City all offer unique challenges, and the Lions have mostly held up in these games.
There are so many injury questions with both of these teams. The Lions appear to be getting running back David Montgomery and left tackle Taylor Decker back, but the Packers' situation is more unclear. CB Jaire Alexander and WR Christian Watson have been limited in practice, while Aaron Jones is trending toward playing.
The Lions are the marginally better team for me, but not enough to lay points with Jared Goff outdoors, even though the weather looks warm for Thursday. Let’s wait on more injury news and see if Green Bay is getting healthy before potentially betting the Pack.
Verdict: Pass
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The Passes
Falcons vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville gets a small boost for home field because of its familiarity with playing in London, but the Jaguars are getting destroyed in the trenches through three weeks. They rank in the bottom six in the NFL in pass rush win rate, pass block win rate and run block win rate. The only thing the Jaguars have done well through three weeks in the trench is stop the run, which is a major key in this matchup against the Falcons.
Trevor Lawrence ranks 27th out of 34 QBs in EPA + CPOE composite and while the film review and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades do suggest he’s getting no help, it’s hard to bet on this offense turning the corner in the week that they have all of the logistical nightmares of traveling to London
Desmond Ridder is also a bottom-five QB by EPA + CPOE, which means I could only look to the under here. The London surface at Tottenham has produced a faster track than some of the other London locations (Twickenham or Wembley), though, so I’m going to pass on this game.
Verdict: Pass
Commanders vs. Eagles
The Eagles' domination of the trenches on both sides of the field will make life really difficult for Commanders QB Sam Howell, who has had real problems with avoiding sacks through his first three games this year. Philadelphia jumped from a seven-point favorite to an 8.5-point favorite after its dominant win on Sunday and the Commanders' uncompetitive loss to Buffalo.
Taylor Heinecke pulled off a massive upset catching double digits in this exact matchup last season, and I’d need double digits before betting Washington in this matchup and spot. The Eagles offense still isn’t quite right, but new offensive play-caller Brian Johnson did seem to take a step in the right direction in Monday’s win.
Verdict: Pass
Raiders vs. Chargers
Do people actually enjoy betting Chargers games? I enjoyed Vikings-Chargers as a neutral with no money on the game and haven’t bet a Chargers game all year beyond teasing the underdog up in their games. I still think this is a really good team and Justin Herbert is playing at an elite level when the offensive line holds up long enough for him to succeed.
The defense can’t possibly be worse and will probably regress positively, but the lack of depth in defensive talent is alarming. Derwin James is good and rookie pass rusher Tuli Tuipuloto has shined, but this group can’t stop competent quarterbacks or the run. Tuipuloto has the most pressures by a rookie edge through three games since Nick Bosa and Josh Allen in 2019, per PFF.
Maybe bet some Tuipuloto sack props or overtime props, but I can’t lay more than a field goal with the Chargers in a divisional "home" game.
Verdict: Pass
Cardinals vs. 49ers
At one point or another, the Cardinals' lack of talent has to show itself in one of these games.
Josh Dobbs hasn't had a terrible game at quarterback, and the Cardinals defense hasn't been exposed. San Francisco is the team to destroy them and cut them apart, but Kyle Shanahan’s conservative nature and the huge matchup looming with Dallas next week keeps me from laying multiple touchdowns.
Verdict: Pass
Chiefs vs. Jets
The market is suggesting that the Jets are as bad as the Bears with this line. Chicago closed +13 in Kansas City last week, so if you flipped home field, Kansas City would have been around -9.5/10.
That’s the line for this matchup on Sunday. As low as I am on Wilson and the Jets offense, at least the defense remains a quality unit far greater than anything Chicago has to offer.
If you want to bet on Wilson and the Jets, you’re on your own, kid. Good luck against the last great American dynasty.
Verdict: Pass
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The Leans
Vikings vs. Panthers
When we talk about regression to the mean — like the Vikings 11-0 record in one-score games last year — it doesn’t usually come in the form of the opposite extreme. But it sure is funny when it works out that way, and now the Vikings are 0-3 and staring down the barrel of a tank year. The Vikings remain better than they were last season as they’ve improved on both sides of the ball.
The main difference is fumble and close-game luck. The Vikings have lost eight fumbles in three games, which is only six fewer than they did in the whole of 2022. The defense is 22nd in EPA per play allowed with turnovers removed and the offense is fifth in EPA per play (seventh in success rate).
I missed the best of the number and love Minnesota at -3 or better, but I wouldn't play them at -3.5. The backdoor risk is too big, and Carolina has already pulled off one and nearly two backdoors in as many weeks. The Panthers' lack of offensive weaponry is glaring thus far and proving too difficult for even great play-caller Frank Reich to scheme around.
Verdict: Lean Vikings -3.5; Play Vikings -3 if it becomes available
Rams vs. Colts
The Rams' offensive line issues aren’t going anywhere, and there’s only so much Matt Stafford can do to overcome them.
The Colts offense wasn’t good at all with Gardner Minshew (3.9 yards per play) on Sunday, and they need Anthony Richardson back in the fold for me to consider betting them as a favorite here. The Colts are winning in the trenches through three weeks, especially on defense where they rank eighth in pass rush win rate.
The Rams are a bottom-five pass-blocking unit and cannot run the ball. If Richardson is back, I’ll be looking to lay the -1.5 at home as he improves the Colts offensive dynamism and running game.
Verdict: Pass for now, play Colts -1.5 if Richardson plays
Buccaneers vs. Saints
The market took a lot of over money on Tuesday and pushed this total up from 39 to 41 before it was bought back and settled in at 40.5. I don’t agree with the initial over given the quality of the Tampa Bay offensive line. Baker Mayfield performed really well in the first two weeks and didn’t turn it over against Minnesota and Chicago, two below-average defenses with no pass rush and very few playmakers.
New Orleans is a lot closer to Philadelphia defensively than those first two opponents and ranks inside the top 10 in pass rush grades per PFF. The Saints have some question marks at quarterback, but I’m not sure there’s much of a difference between Derek Carr and Jameis Winston at this point in their careers.
The Saints offense took a punt return back on Sunday for seven points but has done next to nothing offensively all season. I’ll wait for more Carr news and a potential 41 to return before betting the under, but offense should be hard to come by in this game.
Verdict: Lean Under 40.5; Play at 41
Lean Bucs +3; Play at Bucs +3.5
Broncos vs. Bears
I have no real strong opinion on this game, except that the Broncos horrendous start to the season on defense is likely to be more random and less predictive than the ineptitude of the Bears offense. Denver has allowed 7.3 yards per play in three games after being a top-five unit last year. The truth with defenses is always somewhere in the middle.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings show there to be value to the under, but I am most likely passing here.
Verdict: Lean Under 46 because of the Luck Rankings
Steelers vs. Texans
For the second consecutive week, the Steelers won a game that saw them lose the success rate battle overall. The big turnover plays and highest-leverage moments have swung Pittsburgh’s way for each of the last two weeks, and it's probably a team to bet against now as a road favorite.
With that being said, the Steelers defensive line should be able to get to C.J. Stroud, and his under-pressure numbers remain quite poor. I’m waiting for more news of the Texans injuries this week before I bet anything here.
Verdict: Lean Texans but wait for injury news
Patriots vs. Cowboys
Entering last week, Dallas was viewed as maybe the best team in the NFL after thrashing both the Giants and Jets by 60 combined points. After one flat showing in Arizona, now it’s the same old Cowboys?
I don’t think so. The red-zone issues with a new play-caller are real, but the Cowboys offense is still top seven in both rushing and passing efficiency. The defense had real problems stopping explosive plays against the Cardinals, but that is not at all how New England will threaten them this Sunday.
Dallas committed a ton of penalties and didn’t execute in the highest-leverage moments. That could be a comment on the poor coaching — I’m no fan of Mike McCarthy — but it’s not an indictment of the talent on this roster.
The Cowboys pass rush still makes them elite front runners when playing with the lead and if this number moves back to 6.5 at all, I will be betting the Cowboys at home. The Patriots did what they always do to Zach Wilson last week, but the offense offered little for me to believe in. New England's offense is 22nd in EPA per play through three games against an average defensive strength of schedule.
Verdict: Play Dallas -6.5 or better, pass at -7.
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The Bets
Ravens vs. Browns
The Colts blitzed Lamar Jackson on 40% of his dropbacks Sunday with major success. Gus Bradley isn’t known for blitz-heavy schemes, but I’m sure that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz took notice of the Colts success ahead of this week’s key divisional tilt.
The Ravens' offensive line injuries to Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum make the unit extremely vulnerable, and Jackson struggled against pressure on Sunday. Schwartz doesn’t need a second invitation to bring pressure, and I’d expect Cleveland to bring pressure a ton this week.
Jackson is 6-of-16 for the year with just 3.5 yards per attempt when pressured. The Colts defensive line ranks eighth in the league in pass rush win rate at 50%, tied with the Browns through three weeks. And the Colts don’t have a single game wrecker near the quality of defensive end Myles Garrett.
Cleveland’s offense got a vintage performance out of Deshaun Watson, but it’s important we don’t overreact to one game there. Watson is still a bottom-five quarterback in efficiency, net yards per attempt and success rate since he returned from suspension midway through last season.
The Ravens were flat offensively with sacks and turnovers and lost on Sunday, but Mike MacDonald’s defense held Minshew and the Colts to 3.9 yards per play and four Matt Gay field goals of 50-plus yards.
I love both of these defenses and think the total is too high at 41. You’re buying high on these two defenses, but they’ve also allowed the fewest and second-fewest yards per play through two games.
The total is at 41 at bet365, BetMGM and DraftKings.
Verdict: Bet Under 41
Bengals vs. Titans
Joe Burrow and the Bengals won a must-win game at home on Monday Night Football, but there was nothing in the offensive performance to be excited about going forward.
Ja’Marr Chase remains an excellent wide receiver both during and after the catch, but Burrow finished the game at -0.11 EPA per dropback. He went from one of the most accurate throwers in the NFL when healthy to the league’s worst quarterback by completion percentage over expected (CPOE).
It’s clear Burrow is playing through injury and trying to keep the offense afloat in the interim, but the Bengals cannot run the ball at all and will face a tough matchup against an underrated Titans defense.
Tennessee is top five in rushing success rate allowed this season. Burrow’s inability to push the ball downfield because of his injury and the offensive line will lead to a lot of long, methodical field goal drives for the Cincinnati offense — similar to Monday night.
The Titans offensive line has mostly held up in pass protection thus far this year, but Ryan Tannehill’s bottom-six rank in EPA + CPOE composite score is alarming given the trendline and his age. This should be an ugly game with a lot of long drives and field goals and the total shouldn’t be above 41, either.
BetRivers and DraftKings were still hanging 41.5 as of Tuesday night.
Verdict: Bet Under 41.5
Dolphins vs. Bills
The unquestioned game of the weekend in the NFL as the 3-0 Dolphins face the should-be 3-0 Bills in a battle for AFC East supremacy. The Bills caught a break from the schedule makers and won’t have to go to Miami in September again after the entire offense was gassed at the end of last year’s contest.
Miami’s offense has been a supernova through three weeks, lapping the entire league in efficiency and production. They are the talk of the league right now, but the Bills defense might be an underrated part of the story.
The Bills have faced Sam Howell, Jimmy Garappolo and Zach Wilson, but the healthy version of this Buffalo defense has quietly posted elite numbers. They are second in EPA per play allowed, second in EPA per drop back and top 10 in Rushing Success Rate allowed. The Dolphins will be the most public dog of the entire weekend, but the Buffalo defense is the differentiator and they’ll get more stops to win this game late.
Save for a terrible second half from Josh Allen against a defense that has consistently given him fits, Buffalo has been as elite as advertised. These two teams played in December and Buffalo was -7 with Tua Tagovailoa playing. Now it’s -2.5. I’ll take the Bills at a discount.
As of Tuesday night, you can still get Bills -2.5 at bet365 and Caesars.
Verdict: Bet Bills -2.5
Seahawks vs. Giants
Does one dare bet a primetime over? If there was ever going to be one, this would be the spot. The Giants offense has looked terrible in five of the six halves it has played this year, but keep in mind that four of those halves came against two elite defenses in Dallas and San Francisco. Seattle is a much less resistant defense and doesn’t offer a ton of pass-rush upside to bother Daniel Jones.
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