NFL Week 4 Picks
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Brandon Anderson: I love this Thursday night spot for the Bengals.
Cincinnati finally looked like itself in Week 3. It's not just that the Bengals got their first win — it's how they did it. Seventeen of Cincinnati's first 21 called plays were pass plays, and not coincidentally, the Bengals scored two quick touchdowns out of the gates. They scored on four of their first five drives and were driving before a fumble on the other one.
Early last season the Bengals were awful on early downs and leaned far too much on an inept run game before making a late transition to a pass-happy offense that led them all the way to the Super Bowl. For whatever reason, head coach Zac Taylor's team started the first two weeks run-heavy again, but the switch to pass-heavy made Joe Burrow look like a future MVP again.
But this is even more about the opponent Cincinnati will face.
Miami escaped with a two-point win over the Super Bowl favorite Bills to move to 3–0, but the Dolphins were thoroughly outplayed.
Buffalo racked up 285 additional yards and more than doubled Miami up in first downs and time of possession. The Dolphins hit two long passes on a late TD drive but otherwise had 135 yards the entire rest of the game — and that was against a Buffalo defense missing five starters.
I'm much more troubled with the other side of the ball. Miami's defense could not get off the field against Buffalo, and that could be costly going forward. The poor Dolphins D played an incredible 90 snaps in the scorching Miami heat, getting gashed for 497 yards and almost 41 minutes of possession on the field. This team looked exhausted and now has a short turn-around before a road game, and that spells trouble.
And then of course there's the Tua Tagovailoa injury. Tua came back in after entering concussion protocols, but it's no certainty that he'll be a full go Thursday, if he plays at all. He's been good, so a drop to Teddy Bridgewater would be a hit for this otherwise explosive offense.
I knew watching those afternoon games that I'd be grabbing this ticket the moment it posted. I would only bet this at -3 or better.
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Anthony Dabbundo: This is an excellent sell-high spot on the still undefeated Dolphins after they stole a victory at home against Buffalo on Sunday.
Miami should be commended for its excellent start to the season, but the Dolphins were quite fortunate to beat both the Ravens and Bills in the last two weeks. Buffalo won the yardage 497-212 and while Miami was efficient, the Dolphins took advantage of major injury issues along the Bills offensive line and in the secondary.
Miami does have a solid ninth ranking in pass rush win rate that could cause problems for Joe Burrow, but it's also very aggressive and loves to blitz. This is a major issue against Burrow, who has dominated the blitz in his short NFL career.
Burrow had 12 touchdowns and five INTs last year when blitzed, graded out as the best in the league per PFF and averaged 11.5 yards per attempt. Much as Lamar Jackson solved this secondary when under blitz pressure last week, Burrow should have plenty of success doing the same.
Miami's defense as a whole remains quite overrated when you consider how much its stats last year were inflated off of bad opposing quarterback play. Buffalo had eight drives on Sunday and only punted once, while gaining 30+ yards on every drive. Some better red zone offensive play from Josh Allen would have changed the outcome.
Even though Tua Tugovailoa did return to the game despite appearing clearly concussed, it's a very short turn around for him if he is experiencing any kind of symptoms overnight. This creates major downside risk for the Dolphins if their QB isn't able to really practice or potentially play this week.
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Blake Krass: The big news is that Zach Wilson is expected to return from injury and get his first start of the year in Pittsburgh. Wilson’s mobility should give the Jets' offense a big boost from the statuesque Flacco as their offensive line continues to struggle.
The Steelers offense has been dreadful, coming in at 28th in yards per play offensively. There are rumors that Kenny Pickett may take over the starting QB job, but I think it is a win-win for the Jets. Either they will face Pickett in his first career start, or they will face Mitch Trubisky who clearly can’t handle the offense.
Tomlin's Steelers as a favorite is where you want to fade them. Tomlin is only 82-94-5 (46.6%) against the spread (ATS) as a favorite in his career. T.J. Watt is also expected to miss this game and this defense is not the same without him. After Thursday night’s loss, the Steelers are now 0-6 when Watt doesn’t play since he was drafted.
I think the Jets will keep this within a field goal and so I like them at +3.5 and would bet it to +3.
