Our nine NFL player prop picks cover seven games and have the kinds of bets you want to root for: touchdowns and overs.
Our experts are betting some of the names who have made noise in the betting and fantasy world this season like Braelon Allen, Rashee Rice and Andy Dalton. Our only fade is on Anthony Richardson, who's facing the NFL's top defense through three weeks.
Let's get into our NFL best bets for this week.
NFL Player Prop Picks
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Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Grant Neiffer's Kyren Williams Prop for Rams vs. Bears
Kyren Williams has been a touchdown machine in this offense since jumping into the starting role last year. His role will only grow in importance without Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp.
Williams has scored a massive 20 touchdowns in just 15 games dating back to the beginning of last season, and he has scored in 12 of those 15 games.
This week, Williams gets a tough defensive matchup against the Bears, but there will likely be several touchdowns for the Rams. Williams' touchdown share is going to be massive, especially without those two receivers.
I don't like taking TD bets at minus odds, but I have Williams at a 65% chance of scoring.
Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime TD Scorer (-110)
Sam Farley's Braelon Allen Prop for Broncos vs. Jets
By Sam Farley
This is Breece Hall's offense, aside from Aaron Rodgers, but the Jets are finding ways to get Braelon Allen involved.
The rookie has been brilliant so far for New York with seven carries for 33 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. His workload increased to 11 carries for 55 yards in Week 3. Allen is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season and is starting to look like a 1B to Hall's 1A.
We'll bet Allen's rushing total while it's still this low.
Pick: Braelon Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Charlie DiSturco's Aaron Jones Prop for Vikings vs. Packers
Green Bay’s defense — specifically against running backs — has been mediocre through the opening few weeks and we now have a great opportunity to buy on Aaron Jones in a revenge game. Need I say more?
In Week 1, we saw Saquon Barkley absolutely torch GB for 109 yards on the ground, and he added a touchdown catch. The following week, Jonathan Taylor gashed the Packers for 103 yards on 8.58 yards carry and more than 30 receiving yards.
You could throw last week out the window against the Will Levis-led Titans. He quickly forced Tennessee into a negative game script, so the backs of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears combined for just 21 total rushing yards. They did, however, haul in 69 receiving yards.
In total, the Packers have allowed an average of 15.7 carries for 78.3 yards and 4.7 receptions for 47.7 receiving yards through three weeks.
All this leads to my point of backing Jones in his return to Lambeau. He was pushed out for Josh Jacobs and in his three games with Minnesota, the 29-year-old is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, has run for at least 90 rushing yards twice and has added 97 yards through the air. Jones has been efficient and as reliable a safety valve as it gets for Sam Darnold, who continues to impress. Jones' usage rate is sky high as the clear RB1 in Minnesota,
Jones also ranks third among all running backs in yards after contact per carry, per Pro Football Focus. I would not be surprised to see him break a few big runs here behind a Vikings offensive line that ranks second in run blocking.
Dating back to last season, Jones has been over 82.5 rushing + receiving in seven of his last eight. Plus it’s a revenge game! Eat up, Aaron.
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 82.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
Kyle Murray's Josh Jacobs Prop for Vikings vs. Packers
By Kyle Murray
Minnesota has arguably been the most impressive defense in the entire NFL so far through three games, shutting down the 49ers and Texans at home over the last two weeks.
However, Josh Jacobs has seen massive volume and should continue to do so here. He has had at least 84 rushing yards in two of his first three games this season.
While the matchup is tough, this Packers team has a good rushing attack and Jacobs should see plenty of volume.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Sam Farley's Andy Dalton Prop for Bengals vs. Panthers
By Sam Farley
Last week, we saw Andy Dalton replace Bryce Young as starter for the Panthers and throw for 319 passing yards and three touchdowns with a 123.6 QB rating. We're backing him in the completions market here.
Dalton had 26 completions last week and should have the opportunity to get plenty here. This is less about the Red Rifle but more his offensive line, which is now the most efficient pass-blocking unit in the NFL and allowed just four pressures against the Raiders.
If Dalton has time to throw, he should be able to cover this one.
Pick: Andy Dalton Over 21.5 Completions (+100)
Sam Farley's Anthony Richardson Prop for Steelers vs. Colts
By Sam Farley
It has been a rough start to the season for Anthony Richardson, who has a competition percentage under 50%. What makes things worse is that he's thrown double the amount of interceptions, six, to passing touchdowns, three.
The Steelers defense already has four interceptions to its name this season and is wreaking havoc on the NFL this season. I'm betting that they'll get enough pressure on Richardson to force him into throwing another INT.
Pick: Anthony Richardson To Throw INT — Yes (-135)
Grant Neiffer's Marvin Harrison Jr. Prop for Commanders vs. Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been fantastic after a lackluster Week 1 and has a great matchup this week.
The Commanders have been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season, and the total in this game is all the way at 50. Harrison has had a massive 35% target share over the last two weeks and considering the offense there is expected to be in this game, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw 15 targets.
I have Harrison projected for nearly 15 yards over this number, making the over a great bet.
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Charlie DiSturco's Kyler Murray Prop for Commanders vs. Cardinals
The release of the new Call of Duty game isn’t out for another month, so we’ve still got time to get our pro-Kyler Murray bets in.
Last week was a tough matchup against an elite Lions defense that stuffed the run and continuously put Murray in long-yardage situations. But this offense has still shown up and surprised me in the early going. AZ in general ranks inside the top 10 in offensive DVOA, fifth passing!
Murray has not only been elite at keeping plays alive with his legs, but he’s completed nearly 70% of his passes as well. That’s where I’m targeting the QB against a Washington pass defense that is terrible. Like worst in the league bad by all DVOA counts.
Murray’s completion prop is set at 20.5, a number that he has gone over in two of three. With a total set north of 50, this has a chance for fireworks — just like we saw when the Commanders took on the Bengals.
Normally I would bet the Cardinals to win here, but Jayden Daniels has really impressed me so far. So instead, I am putting my trust in a player who I believe has MVP-potential. He is a mobile quarterback that can keep plays alive at length, which should only help here.
Our Action Pro projections have this closer to 21.5, so there’s still an edge based on the current market at hand. It’s also a good buy spot on James Conner who was shut down by Detroit — but in general remains undervalued in the market.
You can back the Cardinals offense however you want here. This should be a fun, high-scoring game with Murray guiding Arizona down the field with ease.
Pick: Kyler Murray Over 20.5 Completions (+100)
Grant Neiffer's Rashee Rice Prop for Chiefs vs. Chargers
Rashee Rice has been a huge part of this offense as the go-to WR for Mahomes with a massive 29 targets this season. He has scored in each of the Chiefs' last two games and with the K.C. rushing attack in shambles, he should have another massive volume game this weekend.
The Chargers have been one of the best defenses in the league this season but will be without safety Derwin James this weekend after he was suspended. I'm expecting the Chargers defense to be worse than what we've seen this season.
I have Rice projected for a 45% chance of scoring, making this a great bet.
Pick: Rashee Rice Anytime TD Scorer (+160)
