Marvin Jones Jr.
Under 3.5 Receptions (+106, FanDuel)
The Jags face a stingy Eagles defense this week and Jones will likely draw either Darius Slay or James Bradberry for most of his routes. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram should both see an increase in target share based on the matchup as well.
There’s a chance this game could see 15-20 mph winds and even some rain. If that ends up being the case, it’ll negatively impact Jones even more as he has the team’s highest aDot (14.8).
Jones is the type of player who could clear his receiving yards prop (44.5) if he’s able to haul in a couple of low-percentage, downfield throws, so the best way to attack him is taking the under on his receptions. I’m projecting him to stay under 3.5 about 58% of the time and would bet it down to -120.
Rashod Bateman
Under 3.5 Receptions (+106, FanDuel)
Bateman’s role through the first three games has been much different than I think most people expected. He’s only running a route on 75% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks, and he has been used as a boom-bust downfield threat with an eye-popping aDot of 17.6 on the season.
Based on his underlying usage, I’m projecting him closer to 3.3 receptions and about a 58% chance of staying under 3.5.
This matchup looks like it’ll be the most impacted by weather, but I want to get on this early, as Bateman’s current route tree would be significantly impacted by high winds and rain, which is what the current forecast calls for.
Garrett Wilson
Under 4.5 Receptions (-155, BetMGM)
Garrett Wilson has been one of the standout rookies of the 2022 draft class, going off for lines of 4/52/0, 8/102/2 and 6/60/0 over his first three games. However, there will be a change at quarterback this week for the Jets as Joe Flacco is ceding starting duties to Zach Wilson, who was cleared to return to action.
Flacco averaged 51.7 pass attempts per game this season, but Wilson’s pass attempts prop currently sits at 33.5. We should expect the overall passing volume for New York to be significantly lower, especially considering it should be a fairly close game where the Jets lean on the run game a bit more.
I’m projecting Wilson closer to 3.8 receptions and would only bet this down to -155.
Matt Ryan
Under 4.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Ryan has been held under this number 60% of the time dating back to last season.
The Titans will likely be below average in generating pressure this season with Harold Landry (torn ACL) out for the year, which helps lower the odds of Ryan scrambling two-plus times.
Ryan only has one rush attempt this season that has cleared four-plus yards. Considering the Colts are 3.5-point favorites this week, the chances of getting 1-2 kneel-downs at the end of the game are elevated, which could come in handy if Ryan happens to rush for 5-6 yards earlier.
I’m projecting him to stay under this number about 60% of the time and would bet it down to -130. Betting on these types of props is not for the faint of heart.
Kenneth Walker
Under 9.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Travis Homer (ribs) was placed on the injured reserve, which means the receiving role is up for grabs in the Seahawks backfield.
Considering Homer went down after just two plays, we already saw that Deejay Dallas is likely going to take most of the third down/2-minute offense role that Homer is leaving behind.
Kenneth Walker is a talented rookie, but he profiles more as an early down back. I’m projecting him for one reception this week, and he will likely need 2+ grabs in order to safely clear this prop.
I think there is sneaky value here and would only bet it at 9.5 or higher.
Cole Kmet
Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
The Bears have been running the ball at an extremely high rate this year which has prevented Justin Fields from clearing 125 passing yards in a single game this year.
Kmet has only been targeted on 10% of his routes in this extremely conservative offense, giving him a dangerously low floor, and has resulted in two games this season where he failed to catch a single pass. It’s hard to envision things changing too much this week.
Also hindering Kmet this week is the fact that he has typically struggled against man coverage, which the Giants have used at the sixth-highest rate this season.
I’m projecting Kmet closer to 19.5 yards and would bet this down to 23.5.
Editor's note: As of 7:40 a.m. ET, Koerner's pick moved this prop to 22.5 across the board.
Jared Goff
Under 23.5 Completions (-106, FanDuel)
Goff has been held under this number in two of three games this season. That was despite having Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift at his disposal, two players who have been ruled out against the Seahawks.
Operating as Goff’s No. 1 option, St. Brown has caught 70% of his targets this season. This week, Goff will have to target WRs who typically see low-percentage down-field targets, such as DJ Chark (39% catch rate), Josh Reynolds (63%) and Kalif Raymond (33%).
I’m sure the Lions will have all three WRs run more high percentage routes, but there is no denying that St. Brown’s absence will have an impact. The Lions will also likely lean on the run game more as 3.5-point favorites.
I’m projecting this closer to 22 completions and would bet this down to -125.
Editor's note: This prop is listed at 22.5 across the board as of Sunday morning at 7:40 a.m. ET.
Randall Cobb
Under 2.5 Receptions (-140, DraftKings)
With Christian Watson expected to return to action this week, we could see Cobb’s playing time take a slight hit. Romeo Doubs and Robert Tonyan are also both trending up and will likely command more playing time and targets going forward.
With Brian Hoyer likely starting for the injured Mac Jones this week, the Packers shouldn't have to throw much in order to put away the Patriots. All of these factors lead me to showing value on Cobb’s under.
It’s worth noting that Cobb has caught 87% of his targets this season, but based on his underlying usage, I would expect that to regress closer to 70%. I would bet this down to -155.
Editor's note: This prop is no longer available to -155 as of Sunday at 7:40 a.m. ET.
Noah Brown
Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
Michael Gallup is expected to make his season debut this week. While he will likely be limited, he's still likely to eat into Brown’s playing time and target share.
I’m projecting Brown closer to 39.5 yards and would bet this down to 44.5.
Editor's note: Koerner's pick moved this prop to 43.5 receiving yards as of 7:40 a.m. ET.
