While sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor. New player prop markets are being offered every season and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
For the 2022 NFL season, while I’m known as the anytime touchdown prop specialist with The Action Network, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for all player props and will give out my best bets every week. This could include prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and so many more.
Each week during the NFL season and playoffs, I will give out my three favorite player prop picks on Fridays. Through three weeks, I’ve gone 4-5 for +0.8 units. As a reference, during the 2021 season (including the playoffs), my record for these props was 43-25 for +21.7 units in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week since last season, you’d have made profit in 19 of 25 weeks.
As always, you can get all of these picks as soon as I lock them in by downloading The Action Network app.
Here we go for Week 4!
Josh Allen
Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-115, FanDuel)
When looking at rushing yard props for quarterbacks, the first names that come to mind are Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson — but Josh Allen needs to be included in that tier. The MVP front-runner has made massive strides with his legs in his career and I like for him to rush for 40 or more yards against the Ravens.
Although he’s only rushed 19 times in three games, Allen has been racking up the stats. He has 113 yards on those attempts, which puts him at 5.9 yards per carry (ninth in the NFL). He also has 40-plus yards in two of three games. In Week 2, he only had 10 rushing yards on one attempt because the game was a blowout.
Dating back to last season (including playoffs), Allen has rushed for at least 40 yards in eight of his last 10 games. He also seems to pick up steam when playing on the road as evidenced by him surpassing 40 yards in both away games in 2022 and last six road games overall.
It won’t be an easy feat for Allen to pull this off, but the Ravens have only played QB statues like Joe Flacco, Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa thus far. None of those three have the mobility and weapons Allen does.
Adam Thielen
Over 4.5 Receptions (+120, DraftKings)
Although the buzz and hype for Vikings wide receivers has gone to Justin Jefferson (as it should), I’d be remiss if we didn’t bet on Adam Thielen to get at least five catches in Week 4.
The ninth-year pro has historically had a great rapport with Kirk Cousins. Up until this season, Thielen had a history of getting a healthy share of targets.
In 2021, he had five or more catches in eight of 13 games and averaged 7.1 targets per game. His numbers have dipped slightly in 2022, but he has 15 targets over the last two games and caught six passes in Week 3.
Facing a Saints defense that is notoriously tough to run against, Cousins and Co. may need to throw more than usual with shorter routes to move the chains. At this price, I like Thielen to get at least five catches and continue to be the safety valve for Cousins.
Matt Ryan
To Throw An Interception (+125, DraftKings)
Nine QBs have plus odds to throw an interception in Week 4, including Marcus Mariota, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. While those four have had turnover issues recently, there’s a quarterback that keeps me coming back — Matt Ryan.
We cashed him in Week 1 when he was inexplicably priced at +165 to throw an interception vs. the Texans. This time, the Colts are facing another divisional rival with a sneaky propensity to snag interceptions in the Titans.
Tennessee has forced an interception in two of three games (against Daniel Jones and Derek Carr). Since 2019, the Titans have routinely been in the top 10 in forced interceptions (14 in 2019, 15 in 2020, 16 in 2021).
Now, they’re facing a quarterback who's had double-digit interceptions in four of the last five seasons and already has a three-pick game on his Colts resume. If Matty Ice has to throw more than normal because of RB Jonathan Taylor’s injury, this could hit in the first half.
