The unpredictable 2024 season rolls on, following another week of surprising survivor eliminations and unexpected wins from underdog teams. In this article, we break down three essential strategies for your Week 4 picks, whether locking in a survivor pool selection, assigning points in a confidence pool, or eyeing upset picks to boost your chances of winning a weekly NFL contest.
At PoolGenius, we specialize in identifying top-value opportunities. We provide you with the tools to maximize your chances of success in NFL survivor pools, office pools, and football pick'em contests.
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Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks: Putting the Chaos into Historical Perspective
The 2024 season has been wild for survivor pool players. In Week 1, the most popular pick (Cincinnati) went down. In Week 2, the top choice (Baltimore) followed suit, along with three other popular teams. But Week 3 topped them all, as the four most popular picks lost. When the dust settled, the Jets—who secured their win on Thursday night—emerged as the most common team to advance. In a week where just over 20% of entries survived, the carnage was real.
Entering Week 3, pools had already seen an unusually high rate of eliminations, with only around 26% of entries remaining after two weeks. Now, we’ve hit historic levels—just 6% of all entries that started three weeks ago are still alive.
We have an article on historic survivor pool data, and 2024 now has the lowest survival rate after three weeks in our data. The average is closer to 40% of all entries typically alive at this point in the season.
Not only is this the lowest survival rate after three weeks, but even if every remaining survivor pick wins this week (which is highly unlikely), it will still be the lowest survival rate after four weeks. That’s how extreme the eliminations have been, with so many big favorites losing early on.
Typically, pools don’t reach this level of eliminations until about mid-season—around the end of Week 9. We’re about six weeks ahead of that usual elimination pace. This shift means we must reconsider how long contests will last and how much value we place on future weeks.
Over the past decade, the average survival rate for any given week has been 74.5% of entries. However, with so many upsets already occurring, we have less certainty about which teams are truly at the top or bottom of the league. Looking ahead, there are fewer clear mismatches, making the landscape even more unpredictable.
A pool that started with 200 entries, which typically lasted late into the season, might already be down to 10 or 15 entries now—and may not even make it to mid-season. Similarly, a 1,000-entry pool that almost always goes the distance could be in trouble if fewer than 100 entries remain.
Check out our NFL Survivor Picks to see which teams we’ve identified as the highest-value options for Week 4 in your pool.
Week 4 NFL Pick'em & Confidence Pool Picks: Unpopular Favorites Abound
This week presents several small favorites that are being picked by less than half of the public despite being favored by at least a point. Here are the teams currently in this category:
- Baltimore: Despite being favored, the public is leaning slightly toward Buffalo after their two impressive primetime performances.
- Green Bay: Minnesota, with their 3-0 start, has the public's backing at 55%, even on the road.
- Chicago: The LA Rams are the more popular pick in this matchup.
- Tennessee: In this less-than-appealing game, the public favors Skylar Thompson and the Miami Dolphins over Will Levis and the Titans.
- Atlanta: New Orleans' hot start has made them the preferred public pick.
While none of these teams individually offers a huge edge, stacking small advantages like these over time is how you win contests that involve hundreds of picks. Targeting slight favorites with lower pick rates is a smart strategy for season-long and confidence point pools.
Check out our Football Pick’em Picks product for specific recommendations for other value picks in your pool.
Weekly Pool Prize Strategy for Week 4: Public Boarding the Steelers Train
The 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers are only a two-point favorite at Indianapolis, yet the public is backing them 74% of the time in game-winner pools and 68% in spread pools.
This presents Indianapolis as a strong value play as a moderate upset pick in weekly contests. Since 2010, home underdogs with a moneyline between +105 and +125, in games with a total of 42 or lower, have a 53.0% win rate (35-31-1 SU) and a 60.4% success rate against the spread (40-26-1 ATS). The current total for this matchup is around 40, largely due to Pittsburgh's strong defense and their offense averaging just 17 points per game.
By choosing the Colts, you can gain a three-to-one advantage on a game that betting markets consider much closer to a coin flip. Our models favor Indianapolis relative to the public pick rate, and pairing this upset with other toss-up games where you take the less popular side can set you up for a strong payoff if your picks hit.
Get Expert Football Pool Picks In 2024
Maximizing your chances of winning NFL survivor and football pick'em pools comes down to consistently stacking the odds in your favor. The challenge, however, is navigating through the massive amounts of data and complex calculations involved—something most players don’t have the time, expertise, or interest to handle.
At PoolGenius, we take care of all the data collection and analysis for you, allowing you to compete like a pro in your 2024 football pools. Through our partnership with Action Network, you can use the links below to enjoy a no-obligation 3-day free trial and gain access to exclusive season discounts.
