Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 117-68-5 (62.9%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
Last week, the unlucky teams in the seven Luck Rankings matchups went just 2-5-0 ATS giving the unlucky team in luck-based matchups a 4-7-0 (36.4%) start ATS on the season marking the first time since 2020 that luck-based matchups haven't returned a positive ROI through Week 3.
There were no luck-based totals from last week, and both Luck Overs and Luck Unders are in play for Week 4. As a reminder, for Luck Totals we use the following criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
NFL Week 4 Preview
We have six Luck Matchups and six Luck Totals for Week 4.
As a rule of thumb just for this week, while I make a continued dive into some changing landcape trends for the NFL, I'll personally wait on all Luck Totals for one more week so I won't analyze them here. They will still count in the Luck Totals record, though, so I'll list those at the end.
NFL Week 4 Predictions With Action Network's Luck Rankings
Jaguars vs. Texans
Luck Difference: 24
Luck Gap: 61.8%
The Jaguars got manhandled by Buffalo on Monday Night Football as the unlucky team, but I'm going back to the well this week against the Texans.
I didn't look at Josh Allen's splits against man coverage, which Jacksonville plays the most of in the NFL. However, as Brandon Anderson pointed out on Tuesday's "Action Network Podcast" episode, C.J. Stroud is the opposite. He has shredded zone coverage but has been rather pedestrian against man, which I'm sure Jacksonville has studied and will employ quite liberally in Week 4.
I'll roll with the Luck Rankings and those splits, backing a road divisional team catching 7 points.
Verdict: Bet Jacksonville +7
Bengals vs. Panthers
Luck Difference: 20
Luck Gap: 59.6%
Like Jacksonville, the Bengals are the unlucky team for the second straight week. However, in their case it's three straight weeks, covering as a road 'dog in Week 2.
This time the Bengals are favored on the road against Andy Dalton and the Panthers. This Carolina offense was much improved by transitioning away from Bryce Young to Dalton. The Panthers posted solid numbers against a Raiders defense that has been pretty suspect, ranking 27th in defensive DVOA and in the bottom 10 in defensive EPA/play allowed.
However, Cincinnati's defense has been arguably just as bad, if not worse. While they rank three places ahead of the Raiders in defensive DVOA, the Bengals are third-worst in defensive EPA/play allowed despite one of those games against the offensively challenged Patriots.
I also haven't yet worked through my Joe Burrow stats I like to dive into each week to see how his wrist is faring, so I'm just going to wait here before I make a decision.
Verdict: Wait
Steelers vs. Colts
Luck Difference: 22
Luck Gap: 51.7%
The Colts moved up in our Luck Rankings after a win against the Bears, but they face the No. 3 luck team in the Steelers in Week 4. That's produced enough of a Luck Gap to give a luck signal on Indy.
That said, there's potentially a bit of recency bias toward Indy based on Week 3.
The Colts won by five, but our Expected Scores had them winning by just over two points. Pittsburgh was the opposite, winning by 10 in a game Expected Scores had it winning by 15.
That makes the Colts the eighth-luckiest team in Week 3 and Pittsburgh the seventh-most unlucky team of the week. So, on balance for the season as a whole, the Colts are the unlucky team but the luck gap between these teams was cut in half from 101.6% to 51.7% between Weeks 3 to 4.
Given the line movement toward Pittsburgh, I'll wait this out a bit longer to see if we get a 2.5, but would still take the two points if I start to see line movement toward the Colts.
Verdict: Wait, but keep a sharp eye on potential line movement
Seahawks vs. Lions
Luck Difference: 17
Luck Gap: 56.2%
The Lions covered the three-point spread against Arizona in Week 3 while Seattle scored a 24-3 win over Miami. That said, the Seahawks' winning margin was misleading as the Expected Score had it as a five-point win instead.
The Seahawks benefitted from the Dolphins' poor goal-to-go offense, something that's not sustainable if you're allowing teams to get in those situations.
The Lions are much better than Miami so if Seattle could only muster a five- or six-point expectation at home against Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle, then on the road against the Lions it seems like Detroit should fare much better.
In a second version of luck I use — scoring luck — which compares Expected Scores to actual scores instead of win-loss record, Detroit vs. Seattle stands out as a top-rated matchup this weekend.
I think the market is overvaluing the Seahawks after their biggest win of the season, having delivered pedestrian performances in lucky one-score wins over Denver in Week 1 and New England in overtime in Week 2.
I'm a bit torn about where this number will end up since early action is on the Seahawks. There are a lot of injury questions, as well, especially for Detroit. While I want to back Detroit, I'll probably wait this out closer to kickoff to see where these Lions injuries end up.
Verdict: Wait for injuries and line movement to become clear
Broncos vs. Jets
Luck Difference: 22
Luck Gap: 53.4%
Denver is coming off a big win against Tampa Bay which I'm sure is being factored into the market, and while they did win 26-7, they weren't all that lucky thanks to the Expected Score still being a multi-possession win.
Meanwhile, the Jets absolutely manhandled New England in what was also a fair win, so that's also factored into the market. That means we can put faith in the Luck Rankings because the Broncos aren't receiving any undeserved recency bias.
Turning to the number, this line has moved from seven to 7.5 despite our PRO Report showing signals of big money and sharp action on Denver. I'm inclined to bet this sooner than later, but like the Colts/Steelers game, I want to see where line movement may head before I make any decisions. I'd love to get an 8 on Denver if possible.
Verdict: Wait, but keep a sharp eye on potential line movement
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Luck Difference: 15
Luck Gap: 50.1%
Since Chargers QB Justin Herber's status is up in the air, I'll wait for things to settle in on that front before I make a decision on this game.
Remember, our Luck Rankings matchups are graded against closing lines when the market is at its most efficient, and at that point we'll know which QB is suiting up for L.A. Thus, we don't need to rush to the window yet with this game.
Verdict: Wait for key injury news
NFL Luck Rankings Week 4 Luck Totals
As I mentioned, I'm holding off one more week before personally betting too many totals based off luck, but I'll list here the Luck Totals for Week 4 for Luck Rankings record keeping.
Luck Overs
- Seahawks vs. Lions (+13.1)
- Patriots vs. 49ers (+11.0)
- Steelers vs. Colts (+10.5)
Luck Unders
