Commanders vs. Eagles
Sam Howell ranks in the bottom five in most key QB metrics, but the most alarming one is that he's been sacked on 40% of dropbacks when he faces pressure, which leads the NFL. He's also second worst in the NFL in EPA per play when under pressure.
Over the first two weeks, Howell faced Cardinals and Broncos defenses that are middle of the pack in creating pressure. In Week 3, he faced a Bills defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate and was sacked nine times and threw four interceptions.
Now, Howell faces an Eagles defense that ranks second in pressure rate. Not a great matchup.
The Commanders are unlikely to put up enough points to force the Eagles to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters.
Ron Torbert will be the referee for this game and he has been the most profitable ref for the under since 2020, going 32-17 (65%, +26% return on investment). This isn’t just based on noise either, Torbert’s tends to penalize offenses at a higher rate year after year.
This season, he has called nearly twice as many false start calls as league-average. Last week, the Panthers were called for eight false starts. Most were due to Seattle’s crowd noise, but a few of the calls were questionable. Most refs tend to let Eagles RT Lane Johnson get away with his early backstep move, but I wonder if Torbert will call it this week.
I already like this under, but a more flag-happy crew against the offenses here would be icing on the cake. I’m projecting this closer to 42.5.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Raiders vs. Chargers
Jimmy Garoppolo has been ruled out, and Aidan O’Connell will likely start in his place. He’s a talented QB out of Purdue, and I was a bit surprised he fell to the fourth round.
O'Connell was a preseason MVP candidate, balling out in three August games. He finished first in EPA/play, second in Pro Football Focus grade among QBs and had a 69% completion rate despite having his average yards per throw just over 10.0 (10.1).
I think O'Connell is ready for this test and will surprise some people today. Helping him is that he has one of the best WRs in the game to throw to in Davante Adams and a solid No. 2 in Jakobi Meyers.
I'd say O'Connell is maybe only worth a 2-point drop-off from Garoppolo. He could channel Brock Purdy last season and be a quality QB out of the gate, maybe even forcing the Raiders to give him some more starts even once Jimmy G. is ready to return. One of my bold calls before the season was that O’Connell would be this year’s Brock Purdy
On the other side, the Chargers will be without some hugely important players: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Mike Williams, C Corey Linsley, DE Joey Bosa and S Derwin James.
This is a great spot to back the Raiders getting +6.5. I would prefer to have more confirmation that it will be O'Connell, and not Brian Hoyer, starting for Las Vegas before locking in this pick.
