The NFL is the gift that keeps on giving, and we had more madness to enjoy in Week 3. The Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Rams and Commanders all won outright as underdogs of 5.5 points or more, and 'dogs of 5.5 or more points are now 14-2 ATS and 10-6 straight up this season. If you've backed every big underdog this season, you've been absolutely crushing it.
The Week 4 slate features a playoff rematch, a potential AFC Championship preview, and some critical early divisional matchups. So far in this column, I've gone just 8-9 for -1.95 units. After a 3-3 Week 2, I went 2-2 in Week 3. I'm ready to break out of that boring start to the year with some picks I love in the Week 4 slate.
| Category |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 4 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
The Cowboys just got punched in the mouth for the second straight week. The Ravens built a 28-6 lead before Dallas made a late surge in the fourth quarter. This Dallas roster has apparent flaws, most notably against the run. The Cowboys rank last in rushing EPA allowed, and the Ravens finished with 274 rushing yards and three touchdowns on Sunday.
Dallas also can’t establish a run game. The Cowboys have just 73.7 rushing yards per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. However, the Giants aren’t well-equipped to take advantage of either weakness.
Devin Singletary has had a solid start to the season, but a matchup against the porous Washington defense inflates his numbers. Overall, New York has struggled to establish the run on early downs, ranking 28th in early down rushing EPA. That will put Daniel Jones behind the sticks against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ pass rush.
Meanwhile, the Giants rank 30th in defensive adjusted line yards, so the Cowboys could get some breathing room on the ground. Dallas can also go pass-heavy with Dak Prescott against a New York secondary that ranks 22nd in coverage and could be without Andru Phillips, who ranks fourth among 106 qualified corners in PFF coverage grades.
The Cowboys have won 13 of their past 14 games against the Giants, and those wins have come by an average of 16 points per game. Dallas would have covered this -5.5 spread in 11 of those 14 games. According to Brandon Anderson’s research, Prescott is 25-8 ATS (76%) as a favorite in divisional games.
I make the spread for this game closer to -7, so it was a no-brainer to grab at -4.5, and I’d still bet it at the current -5.5.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys -5.5
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Passes
The Bengals’ offense looked spectacular Monday night as Joe Burrow finished with 324 passing yards and three touchdowns. Tee Higgins got back on the field and Ja’Marr Chase had his best game of the 2024 season, finishing with six catches for 118 yards and two scores. However, the Cincinnati defense could not get off the field, and that’s a concern moving forward.
Andy Dalton led a resurgent Panthers’ offense to a massive road win over the Raiders last week, and I believe he’s here to stay as a productive quarterback. Dalton operated Dave Canales’ offense the way Bryce Young couldn’t, and his 13 years of experience showed as he led the Panthers to 36 points, the most of any team on Sunday.
I don’t expect either offense to encounter much resistance in this game, but I don’t have much interest in betting a side or total here. I’m in line with the market as I make the spread for this game Bengals -5.
Verdict: Pass
Given the injury attrition on both sides, it’s impossible to have a strong take on this game early in the week. For the Eagles, wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are listed as questionable, while offensive tackle Lane Johnson is in concussion protocol.
For the Buccaneers, we need to monitor the statuses of defensive linemen Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey and safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who missed the game last week. Offensive tackle Luke Goedeke is also in concussion protocol.
Depending on player availability, I’d be intrigued by the Eagles in this spot as they seek revenge for last season’s embarrassing playoff defeat in the Wild Card Round. I was impressed by Philadelphia’s defense last week as Vic Fangio showed significant improvement after an embarrassing collapse in Week 2.
Verdict: Pass, monitor injury reports
According to ESPN Analytics, the 49ers had around a 95% chance to win when they had the ball at midfield with less than five minutes remaining, nursing a seven-point lead. However, the Rams made an unlikely comeback as Matthew Stafford hit Tutu Atwell for a 50-yard bomb, and Kyren Williams scored his third touchdown.
The Rams are still the most injured team in the NFL, with tons of issues along the offensive line, secondary, and wide receiver room. However, getting comfortable laying points with Chicago is tricky. The Rams still have a massive edge at quarterback and head coach, with Stafford and Sean McVay lapping Caleb Williams and Matt Eberflus.
I expect Williams to continue to progress in his rookie season against a vulnerable Rams defense, but I don’t have much interest in the side or total here.
Verdict: Pass
We’re about to learn a ton about the shape of the NFC South race on Sunday as the Falcons host the Saints. New Orleans’ offense fell back to Earth last week after a riveting start to the season, but there’s little question that Klint Kubiak has provided a colossal play-calling upgrade. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has continued to look more comfortable as he shakes off the rust and learns a new playbook.
Offensive line injuries are a factor for both teams here. The Saints will be without former Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy, while the Falcons have offensive tackle Kaleb McGary and center Drew Dalman listed as questionable.
I’ll likely use this game to gather more data on these NFC South rivals, but I don’t have a strong take on this one early in the week.
Verdict: Pass
After a rare season where the 49ers avoided the injury bug for the most part, San Francisco has been hit hard this season. The 1-2 Niners were without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle last week. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is reportedly out for the season. Brock Purdy’s performance last week was admirable, but this roster is falling apart.
The Patriots provide a perfect get-right spot for San Francisco, and if this team were fully healthy, I’d be open to laying the points. We’ve seen Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers run roughshod over subpar opponents in recent years, and while the Patriots captured some early season magic with a win over the Bengals, this is a bottom-five team in the NFL.
I expect the 49ers to get back on track, but I'm not prepared to lay 10 points with this many injuries.
Verdict: Pass
I was eyeing this spot to back the Chargers as home divisional 'dogs in Week 4, but this team is suddenly riddled with injuries. Justin Herbert’s status was in question last week after suffering a high-ankle sprain the week prior, but the Chargers rolled the dice, and he left the game after reaggravating the injury. Offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt and defensive end Joey Bosa all left the game, too. To make matters worse, Derwin James is suspended.
The Chiefs rank first in Nick Giffen’s luck rankings and are a team I’ll look to fade whenever they’re laying a big number. However, the Chargers have their bye week in Week 5 and might opt for caution regarding their injured players. Monitor the practice reports before deciding on this game.
Verdict: Pass
The Raiders suffered an embarrassing home loss against the Panthers last week and were ill-prepared for their opponent. That’s an indictment on Antonio Pierce, but the defense should bounce back after allowing Andy Dalton to torch them for 36 points. Cleveland ranks last in early down success rate and its offensive line has significant issues. Maxx Crosby and company should feast.
I’m right in line with the market on this spread as I make this Raiders -1, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see some scoring in this game. The Browns struggled to contain Daniel Jones last week, and the Raiders have two elite pass-catchers in Davante Adams and Brock Bowers. Meanwhile, if Deshaun Watson can buy some time in the pocket, the Raiders’ secondary is vulnerable as they rank last in coverage per PFF.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
This is a brutal spot for a young Broncos team. They are playing their second straight road game after a double-digit win over a playoff team from last season. Combine that with the Jets playing at home for the second straight week off extended rest following last week’s Thursday Night Football blowout win over the Patriots and this spot screams New York.
Denver will likely limit Garrett Wilson, thanks to the services of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Still, Aaron Rodgers has no problem working with ancillary options, and he looked incredible last week in primetime. Denver’s pass rush gave Baker Mayfield fits last week behind a banged-up offensive line, but the Jets’ new-look offensive line has impressed. I don’t expect much drop-off from veteran Morgan Moses to rookie Olu Fashanu at right tackle.
I’m not rushing to lay seven points with the Jets, but I lean toward them covering and would be interested in a teaser with the Jets down to -1.
Verdict: Lean Jets -7, Play Jets -1 in a teaser
The Commanders had their best moment as a franchise in years on Monday night, and the team’s fans were on Cloud Nine on Tuesday after the win over the Bengals. Jayden Daniels looks like the real deal as he terrorized Cincinnati's defense. His Offensive Rookie of the Year stock is clearly on the rise.
However, Washington’s defense is still severely lacking, and the Commanders rank 31st in PFF’s coverage grades this season. Fellow rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. should feast against this hapless group of cornerbacks.
Tight end Trey McBride suffered a nasty concussion on Sunday, and his status is essential to monitor. Offensive tackle Jackson Barton also left the game in a walking boot after replacing Kelvin Beachum, who was replacing Jonah Williams (currently on IR). There’s a nonzero chance Arizona is on its fourth-string right tackle this week.
Monitor the injury report for this one, but I’m intrigued by the Cardinals at -3.5. The line was -5.5 before Monday Night Football, and this is a tough spot for a young Commanders team, traveling cross-country on a short week after a massive upset win.
Verdict: Lean Cardinals -3.5
The Ravens are 1-2, but they’re currently third in my power ratings, behind only the Bills and Chiefs. This is a potential AFC Championship preview, and it’s the first big road test for a 3-0 Buffalo team. Josh Allen is off to an electric start to the season, racing to the top of the MVP odds board, and he should find success against a Baltimore defense that has had some deficiencies against the pass.
The Ravens rank 24th in pass defense EPA and 23rd in PFF’s coverage grades. The Bills have skewed toward a run-heavy approach on early downs under Joe Brady, but Allen can exploit some of the holes in Baltimore’s secondary on passing downs. The Ravens have missed former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.
Baltimore has also struggled on the offensive line after losing three starters from last year’s team, particularly on the right side. Von Miller has turned back the clock this year, and Gregory Rousseau is enjoying a breakout as one of the top edge rushers in the NFL. That tandem can make life difficult for Lamar Jackson in the pocket.
However, the Ravens have the personnel to exploit a Bills defense missing linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, as well as slot corner Taron Johnson. Expect a heavy dose of 12 and 13 personnel for Baltimore, with Derrick Henry seeing a heavy workload against a Buffalo defense that hasn’t been asked to defend this type of offense this season.
All sorts of trends suggest the Ravens are the side here. Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS (76%) as a favorite of three or less points, or as an underdog. He’s also 14-7 ATS in primetime games (66%) and 6-1 ATS in his past seven (85%). I lean toward the Ravens on the spread, but I’m also not rushing to step in front of Allen against a secondary I still have questions about.
Verdict: Lean Ravens
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NFL Week 4 Picks
I bet the Jaguars on Monday night after an 0-2 start, looking for them to bounce back as one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL. I got +6 on the spread, and it closed at +4. That’s two points of CLV! You know what happened next — they lost by 37. At least it wasn’t a sweat!
The Jaguars might be horrendous. I certainly downgraded them in my power ratings after that Monday night showing, but I’m going back to them in this spot. Jacksonville ranks 29th in Nick Giffen’s luck rankings, while Houston ranks fifth. That makes this a luck rankings game, and unlucky teams are 117-68-5 (63%) ATS.
Houston’s offense has been quietly struggling to start the season, ranking just 31st in early down success rate and 29th in EPA/play. The absence of Joe Mixon has hurt the run game, as Cam Akers ranks just 40th out of 54 qualified running backs with 3.6 YPC. Jacksonville ranks sixth in early down rushing success rate allowed, so expect the Jaguars to force C.J. Stroud into some obvious passing situations.
I’m asking you to hold your nose and back the Jaguars here. I’m trusting the spot and attempting to catch the falling knife. According to Evan Abrams, teams that lose by 30+ points and are now 'dogs of 4+ points are 89-50-3 ATS (64%). Teams that lose by 35+ are 50-19-2 ATS (72%). This line was -3.5 over the summer and -4.5 before Monday Night Football. I believe the move to -7 is an overreaction, and I’ll back the desperate divisional ‘dog here.
Verdict: Bet Jaguars +7
The Vikings have been one of the NFL’s best stories during their surprise 3-0 start to the season, which includes wins over projected Super Bowl contenders, the 49ers and Texans. On Sunday, they beat Houston by a whopping 27 points, and Brian Flores’ defense completely stymied one of the brightest young passers in the NFL in C.J. Stroud.
However, that sets up an intriguing sell-high spot on Sunday as Minnesota travels to Green Bay for a critical divisional matchup. Jordan Love is expected to return for the Packers and it’s easy to forget just how dominant he was to close out last season. From Week 11 on last year, Love had 23 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions. He led all qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s passing grades and ranked second in the EPA+CPOE composite.
During that span to finish last season, Love faced Flores’ Vikings defense and finished with 256 passing yards, three touchdowns and a 90.5 PFF passing grade. The Vikings play the highest rate of two-high safeties in the NFL with a heavy zone rate, and Matt LaFleur has creative solutions to that defense.
Flores blitzes at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Love was the second-highest graded passer in the league last year against the blitz, finishing with 12 touchdowns to just one interception. Green Bay’s young offensive line also ranks second in pass-blocking per PFF, which is massive against that aggressive front seven.
Sam Darnold has been one of the best stories to start this season, but hasn’t been asked to do too much in this offense. He beat a bad Giants secondary in Week 1, and in the past two weeks, he’s been blitzed at a sub-20% rate. Darnold has a long career of faltering under pressure and has yet to prove that he can thrive outside the machinations of Kevin O’Connell’s offense.
Jeff Hafley’s Packers defense will ask those questions of Darnold with an aggressive front seven that’s coming off an eight-sack outing against the Titans. Free agency signing Xavier McKinney has been integral for this defense as a patrolman on the back end, and while no corner can truly hang with Justin Jefferson, Jaire Alexander at least has plenty of experience against the all-world wideout.
This should be one of the most fascinating matchups of the week, and I’m putting my faith in Love as a short home favorite. If you agree with me on the Packers this week, I also recommend a bet on Green Bay to win the division, which is currently available at +340 on DraftKings.
Verdict: Bet Packers -2.5
We’re reaching the top of the market on the 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers. Nick Giffen has the Steelers as the third-luckiest team in the NFL to this point, and the Colts rank 25th in the luck rankings. That makes this a luck matchup this week, and as I mentioned in the Jacksonville write-up, unlucky teams are 117-68-5 (63%) ATS in the data’s history.
The Steelers’ three games so far have come against the following quarterbacks:
- Week 1 – Kirk Cousins in his first game off an Achilles injury and in a new offense
- Week 2 – Bo Nix in his second career NFL start
- Week 3 – Justin Herbert, who entered the game injured and left after reaggravating his ankle
You can only play the opponents on your schedule, but there’s little doubt that Pittsburgh’s defensive metrics are inflated. In Weeks 1 and 2, the Steelers actually had a lower offensive success rate than their opponents, and on the season, Pittsburgh ranks just 28th in offensive success rate.
Justin Fields has been better than expected, but he’s not pushing the ball downfield and this isn't a high-octane offense. The Colts’ secondary is severely lacking, and Gus Bradley’s defensive scheme is predictable and vanilla, but the Steelers haven’t shown anything that makes me believe they can take advantage.
Indianapolis has suffered through a roller coaster from Anthony Richardson. I’m still a big-time believer in his talent long-term, but it’s been undeniably frustrating. However, the Colts can lean on Jonathan Taylor behind an offensive line that ranks as the best in the NFL in both pass and run-blocking, according to PFF.
Mike Tomlin is just 33-40-2 ATS (45%) as a road favorite in his career, compared to 41-28-1 ATS (59%) as a road underdog. These are the spots where you want to look to fade the Steelers, and I’ll grab the two points of value with the Colts in a game I price as a pick ‘em.
Verdict: Bet Colts +2
We have another double-header on Monday Night Football in Week 4, but this game between the Titans and Dolphins can safely be put on the back burner. Tennessee’s Will Levis has been a walking turnover this season, while Miami is likely to be rolling with Tyler Huntley this week after backup Skylar Thompson got broken in half last week behind a putrid offensive line.
Tua Tagovailoa was elite in the Dolphins’ offense, and Mike McDaniel didn’t show an ability to adjust on the fly last week. Last season, Tagovailoa had the fastest time-to-throw in the NFL, with a top-five adjusted completion rate on deep passes. You can’t replicate that offensive approach with just any quarterback, and without Tagovailoa, Miami’s offensive line got exposed last week as Thompson was pressured on 50% of his dropbacks.
On the season, the Dolphins rank 30th in offensive EPA/play, and it’s unlikely to get much better against a well-coached Titans defense that ranks 7th in success rate. Meanwhile, the Titans rank 31st in offensive EPA/play, and it’s difficult to see Levis having much success through the air against a talented Miami secondary.
Miami’s run defense has been better than expected, ranking 12th in early down success rate despite losing defensive tackle Christian Wilkins in free agency. Tennessee has just six explosive runs all season, which is tied for 28th in the league, and I don’t expect big plays on the ground in this game.
Nick Giffen has this as his top luck total of the week, with a projection of around 27 points, giving us a massive edge on the current number. As I’m writing this, BetMGM is still hanging 37 points for the total, while the rest of the market has shifted to 36.5. If you can’t find a 37, I don’t mind buying the half point at -120 or better since 37 is a crucial number in this range.
Primetime unders are 183-123-3 since 2019, hitting at around a 60% clip. They’re only 6-5 to start this season, so I wouldn’t back that trend blindly, but I like this spot for a primetime under on Monday Night Football.
Verdict: Bet Under 37 Points
The Seahawks are off to the races at 3-0, and with the 49ers getting hit hard by injuries and the Rams and Cardinals floundering on defense, the NFC West is there for the taking. However, after wins over Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson, this Monday Night Football matchup presents them with their first test against an elite offense.
However, I trust this Mike Macdonald defense to hold up. Macdonald helped coach the Ravens to a 38-6 win over the Lions last year, and his defense held Jared Goff to 5.4 yards per attempt, his second-lowest mark of the season. The Seahawks rank first in PFF coverage grades and top 10 in early down success rate allowed to both the run and pass. It’s a group full of talent, especially at cornerback, with ascending stars Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen.
The Lions’ offense doesn’t look like the same elite unit we’re used to, ranking just 18th in EPA/play. It’s a small sample size, to be fair, but they’ve averaged just 20 points per game against the Rams, Buccaneers and Cardinals, all three of which I have rated as well below-average defenses.
Detroit could be without center Frank Ragnow this week, the lynchpin of the Lions' offense, as he’s dealing with a pectoral injury. Graham Glasgow would likely slide in at center like he did last year when Ragnow was out, but he’s a significant downgrade in pass protection. That’s a problem against a stout Seattle defensive line led by Leonard Williams.
Geno Smith looks like a natural fit in new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s offense, and he ranks seventh among qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s passing grades with just one turnover-worthy play. That’s in stark contrast to Jared Goff, who ranks 30th in passing grades and has just one big-time throw to five turnover-worthy plays.
I make this spread Detroit -2, and I’m thrilled to get this number on the right side of the key three. I like Seattle’s chances to pull off the road upset with arguably the better quarterback and defense in the game, and if you haven’t already bought in on Seahawks futures, this might be your last chance to do so.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks +4
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