We're back at it for Week 4 of the NFL season with a trio of overtime bets on which I'm showing value.
Aa a reminder, last year using my overtime model we hit three of 29 overtime bets, all at 15-1 odds or longer for a 159% ROI — and that doesn't even include a 263-1 overtime parlay we hit in Week 2.
We're running it back for the 2024 NFL season with my favorite overtime bets, parlays, and round robins from my OT model. Every individual bet will be for a quarter-unit at FanDuel, while I'll sprinkle on some parlays and round robins from these picks. This week's round robin combinations are 223-1, 237-1, and 271-1.
NFL Week 4 Predictions for Games to Go to Overtime
Commanders vs. Cardinals Prediction: NFL Week 4 Prop Pick
Commanders vs. Cardinals represents the highest total of Week 4 with two bad defenses and two offenses that have shown they can move the ball.
That's a recipe for either team being able to come back from multiple possession deficits, which is one of the key tenants that makes overtime more likely.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction: NFL Week 4 Prop Pick
This is a Luck Rankings game with a signal on the Chargers to cover the spread. That means this game is more likely to go to overtime than the seven-point spread suggests.
I only have thin value on this one if you would rather leave it off your card, but I'm playing it myself.
Seahawks vs. Lions Prediction: NFL Week 4 Prop Pick
These two teams went to overtime in Week 2 last year and it was one of the two my overtime model hit in a week during which we hit a 263-1 overtime parlay.
This year, my model is once again showing value down to just under 14-1 odds.
