The NFL season is almost a quarter of the way over, and as the calendar soon flips from September to October, the weather will follow suit.
A couple weeks ago I got up early to go golfing and it was like, 42 degrees out. What the hell? There's still a good deal of warm weather this weekend, but don't get too attached because winter is coming. Just not quite yet.
But forget all that talk about temperatures. Here's how high wind speeds will impact two games this weekend.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
1 p.m. ET
You may not realize it, but Miami is one of the windiest spots in the NFL. In fact, with 65 games of 10+ mph wind speeds since 2003, it has more windy games than anywhere else in the league per Bet Labs. It's also been one of the best places to take windy unders, posting a 38-27 record in those games.
This game is a strange one from a betting standpoint. Despite their on- and off-field buffoonery this year, the Dolphins are actually commanding the brunt of the bets and dollars, moving from +16.5 to +15. As for the total, bets are split despite the forecast calling for 17-mph winds. The line has dropped from 45 to 44.5 since opening.
Wind speeds this high will impact long passes and the kicking game, not that Josh Rosen needs any additional factors impacting his already poor passing ability. Unfortunately, Younghoe Koo isn't on the Chargers anymore because then under bettors would really have an edge.
JacksonvilleJaguars @ Denver Broncos
4:25 p.m. ET
In what is expected to be a defensive battle regardless of the weather, Minshew Mania heads to Mile High to take on the Broncos. The over/under is just 38, making it the lowest of the week and tied for the lowest of the year. Given the forecast, it's quite possible it dips below 38 before kickoff.
As is the case in Miami, average winds of 17 mph are expected in Denver. Though the folks who call the upper Rocky Mountain range in Montana home may see upwards of four feet of snow this weekend, Denver will still be high and dry … and hot.
Earlier in the week, the total had moved from 38 to 39, but has since been steamed back down — perhaps with this forecast in mind. Yesterday, the forecast called for wind speeds of 20 mph, but it's since become a tad tamer. While average winds may not quite be 20 mph, gusts will still be upwards of 30 and may even approach 40 if we're lucky.
I went to Denver a month ago for the first time and there were a few things that surprised me:
- The stark contrast between the mountains to the west and plains to the east
- The heat
- The earthy-crunchiness
- The wind
I don't think numbers one or three will factor into this game, but the other two are certainly in play.
