Underdogs are barking, the Vikings are 4-0, the Texans and Dolphins still don't have a cover and so much more.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 5 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Unexpected Treasure
Darnold, Vikings Become Contenders
The Minnesota Vikings are the story of the NFL through four weeks. They are 4-0 SU/ATS full game. 4-0 SU/ATS in first half, 4-0 SU/ATS in the 1st quarter and their team totals are 4-0 to the over.
In the last 20 years, the Vikings are the 3rd team to start 4-0 SU/ATS, including 4-0 1H ATS with the 2008 Titans and the 2007 Patriots.
Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a preseason win total of 6.5. The only teams since 1990 to start 4-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos, 1999 Rams and 1995 Rams.
The 2009 Broncos and 1995 Rams finished the season a combined 7-17 SU, both missing the playoffs. While the 1999 Rams went 9-3 the rest of the way and won the Super Bowl.
Foot Long
Big Underdogs Start Quick
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 9-8 SU and 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%) through four weeks — covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.
In the last 20 years, 65% ATS for 6+ pt dogs is the closest any season has been to this mark through four weeks.
If we go back to 1960, here are the best seasons through four weeks for 6+ pt dogs:
2024: 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%)
1982: 3-1 ATS (75%)
1978: 18-6-1 ATS (75%)
Dogs of 6+ are 9-8 SU through four weeks. For comparison, dogs of 6+ were 3-14 SU through four weeks last year and were 20-87-1 SU (18.7%) between 2019-23 through the first four weeks of the season. Dogs of 6+ haven’t been above .500 SU through four weeks since 1983.
Ice Cold
Public Bettors Struggle
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 22-38-2 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,795 – the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the last 20 years.
Public by week:
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.
Tight Lines
Small Spread Early Season
The average point spread for an NFL favorite through four weeks is sitting around -4.2 PPG this season.
That is the lowest mark for any season through the first four weeks since 1982, when there was an NFL strike where Weeks 3-10 were missed, so the data for Weeks 1, 2, 11, 12 was 3.99.
Prior to that, this is the lowest mark through 4 weeks since 1960.
No. 1 Stunner
Caleb Can Join Eli
Caleb Williams has started his NFL career 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS as a favorite.
Since the merger in 1970, only 1 of 33 QBs taken 1st overall has won and covered their first three starts as a favorite: Eli Manning.
A Different Game
Big Passing Days
So far during 2024, we’ve had just 15 QBs throw for 300+ passing yards. Those 15 QBs are 6-9 SU and just 3-11-1 ATS.
Through two NFL weeks, we had five QBs throw for 300+ yds. None of those teams had covered the spread (0-4-1 ATS). The 1st time since 1980 no team w/300+ pass yds has covered in the 1st two weeks.
Every NFL Game For Week 5
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➤Baker Mayfield has only played on the road on Thursday Night Football once – last year in a 24-18 loss to the Bills as a 10-pt underdog.
Overall Baker is 2-1 SU/ATS on Thursday Night Football and 7-4 ATS in his career on short rest, covering the spread in five straight regular season games on short rest.
As an underdog on short rest, Baker is 5-2 ATS – one of the top-10 best marks in the NFL last 20 years.
➤Overall, Baker has lost his last five regular season night starts ATS. Two with the Bucs, one with the Rams and two with the Browns.
➤Over the last three seasons, the under is 21-12 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game. A $100 bettor would be up $716 taking the under in this spot, 3rd-best of any current starting QB behind just Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones.
➤Against divisional opponents, Baker has been dreadful at home ATS, but better on the road. He is 4-10 ATS at home and over .500 ATS at 9-8 on the road.
➤Todd Bowles coached teams have struggled recently on short rest, going 1-7 SU dating back to the start of the 2018 season.
➤Can Kirk do it again? In Cousins' career, he has started 43 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. – and is 18-24-1 SU, 17-26 ATS. At night, he is 13-20 SU, 14-19 ATS.
Cousins is 8-4 SU (5-7 ATS) in primetime in his last 12 starts, but covering the spread has been issue: 3-7 ATS in his last 10 primetime starts.
In his career, Cousins has made 21 home starts in primetime, he is 10-11 SU, 7-14 ATS – but he is 5-2 SU in his last 7 home primetime starts.
➤Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 14-27 ATS playing indoor games, including 1-10 ATS in his last 11 games indoors.
Since 2020, Cousins is last of 87 QBs ATS playing indoor games. Cousins is 11-22 ATS at home since 2020, which is the least profitable mark of 102 QBs in that span.
➤Kirk Cousins just doesn’t enjoy night games. Here are his W/L splits.
1p ET or earlier: 59-33-2 SU (64%)
After 1p ET: 20-39 SU (34%)
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through four games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks.
➤Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 6-18-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of the Seahawks and Saints.
The Falcons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after a SU win.
➤In Kirk Cousins’ career, he is 30-43-2 ATS (41.1%) after a SU win, including 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) at home, the 2nd-worst mark ATS in the last 20 years of 201 QBs ahead of just Jay Cutler.
Cousins has had to play on short rest off a SU win nine times, he is 3-6 SU/ATS.
➤In divisional games where both teams are on short rest, favorites and road teams have had the advantage ATS – with favorites 97-79-5 ATS and road teams 99-76-5 ATS last 20 years.
➤Thursday home teams are just 39-52 ATS since 2019, including 35-46 ATS in night Thursday games.
➤Bowles is 49-53-5 ATS (48%) in his coaching career. He’s 15-7 ATS with Baker Mayfield and 34-46-5 ATS with all other QBs.
➤Bucs are off a win as underdogs last week. Since 2003, teams coming off a SU win as dogs, who are on short rest the next week are just 96-125-10 ATS (43%).
➤A few facts and trends from the 45 total international games:
+ The under has a small edge at 24-21
Wembley: 14-11 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 1-0 to the under
Corinthians: 1-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 5-3 to the over
- Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 34-10-1 straight up and 30-15 against the spread. Favorites at Tottenham: 3-5 ATS. All other international stadiums: 27-10 ATS.
- Teams going from a road game to being an underdog in an international game, are just 2-14-1 SU, losing by almost 11 PPG.
The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51%-plus of tickets in international games are just 21-23 ATS, including going 3-9 ATS in the last 12 international games since the pandemic.
Favorites of a FG or more overseas are 25-7-1 SU, 21-12 ATS.
Only 4 international games have seen team open as dog and close -1.5 or higher. Those teams are 4-0 SU/ATS.
➤No team has had a hotter start to the season than the Minnesota Vikings.
- They are 4-0 SU/ATS full game. 4-0 SU/ATS in first half, 4-0 SU/ATS in the 1st quarter and their team totals are 4-0 to the over.
In the last 20 years, the Vikings are the 3rd team to start 4-0 SU/ATS, including 4-0 1H ATS with the 2008 Titans and the 2007 Patriots.
There have been 24 teams to start the season 4-0 ATS over the last 20 years, 17 of those 24 also started 4-0 SU.
Of the 24 teams to start 4-0 ATS, 23 of them finished the season .500 SU or better (2022 Falcons finished 7-10 SU). 8 of the 24 teams went on to miss the playoffs, while 9 of 24 went on to actually win at least one playoff game. Three of these teams went on to the Super Bowl: 2013 Seahawks, 2009 Saints and 2007 Patriots.
Looking specifically at ATS, of the 24 teams three actually ended up finishing the season below .500 ATS after starting 4-0 ATS – 2020 SEA, 2015 ATL, 2014 LAC.
But more importantly, the 24 teams were a combined 24 games under .500 ATS after their 4-0 ATS starts.
- Looking specifically at the 17 teams to start 4-0 SU/ATS – all 17 finished .500 SU or better, 4 of 17 missed the playoffs (2016 MIN, 2016 DEN, 2015 ATL, 2009 DEN), while 8 of 17 won a playoff game – a better rate than just the 4-0 ATS teams.
Looking specifically at ATS, of the 17 teams to start 4-0 SU/ATS, only four finished the rest of their season above .500 ATS (2015 CIN, 2013 SEA, 2008 TEN, 2007 GB).
Since 2016, we’ve had six teams start 4-0 SU/ATS – they went a combined 33-44-1 ATS the rest of the way.
➤The Vikings have started 4-0 SU after entering the season with a win total of just 6.5.
Since 1990, 97 NFL teams have started the season 4-0 SU – 13 of those 97 teams had a win total of less than 8. Of those 13 teams, 8 went on to make the playoffs, while 5 missed. Six of those 8 also won a playoff game with three making the Super Bowl: 2003 Panthers, 1999 Rams and 1994 Chargers.
The last team before the 2024 Vikings to do this was the 2013 Chiefs and 2012 Cardinals.
The only teams since 1990 to start 4-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos, 1999 Rams and 1995 Rams.
The 2009 Broncos and 1995 Rams finished the season a combined 7-17 SU, both missing the playoffs. While the 1999 Rams went 9-3 the rest of the way and won the Super Bowl.
SU, SU after 4-0
2013 Chiefs, 7.5 – 11-5, 7-5, wc
2012 Cardinals, 7 – 5-11, 1-11, miss
2009 Broncos, 6.5 – 8-8, 4-8, miss
2008 Bills, 7.5 – 7-9, 3-9, miss
2007 Packers, 7.5 – 13-3, 9-3, cc 1
2005 Bucs, 7 – 11-5, 7-5, wc
2003 Panthers, 7.5 – 11-5, 7-5, sbL 3
2002 Chargers, 7 – 8-8, 4-8, miss
2000 Vikings, 7.5 – 11-5, 7-5, cc 1
1999 Rams, 5.5 – 13-3, 9-3, sbW 3
1997 Bucs, 7 – 10-6, 6-6, div 1
1995 Rams, 6 – 7-9, 3-9, miss
1994 Chargers, 7.5 – 11-5, 7-5, sbL 2
➤This will be Aaron Rodgers’ 2nd international series game, as he faced the Giants as a 9.5-pt favorite back in 2022 playing in London at Tottenham Hotspur, the same stadium the Jets-Vikings play in this week. Packers lost that game 27-22.
That loss as a 9.5-pt favorite was the largest upset in the 45-game international series.
Kevin O’Connell and Robert Saleh have both coached one international game each, O’Connell faced the Saints in 2022 at Tottenham Hotspur and won 28-25 as a 4-pt favorite and Saleh faced the Falcons in 2021 at Tottenham Hotspur in a 27-20 loss as a 3-pt underdog.
➤Aaron Rodgers gets his first crack at a Brian Flores-led defense this week, never facing his Vikings or Dolphins teams.
Between 2004-18, Flores was a part of the Patriots staff. Rodgers faced New England three times and averaged just 14.3 PPG.
➤Rodgers obviously has a lot of experience facing the Vikings franchise – he is 17-11-1 SU, 17-12 ATS vs. Minnesota, but that includes just 6-9 ATS outside of Lambeau Field.
➤Entering last week, Rodgers was 13-3 SU at home on 10+ days rest – the Broncos as 8-pt dogs handed Rodgers his 4th loss.
To start his career, Rodgers was 5-1 SU the game after a loss as a 7+ point favorite, but since 2016 he is just 1-3 SU in this spot, losing two in a row both in the 2022 season.
➤The Jets were only the 3rd team in the last 80 years to play its first 3 games of a season within an 11-day span. Previous teams: 2018 Jets, 2013 Eagles.
2024 Jets. 0-1 SU/ATS after 3-games in 11 days
2018 Jets. Finished 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS. Lost 4th game 31-12 on road.
2013 Eagles. Finished 10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS. Lost 4th game 52-20 on road.
➤There have been six different Jets coaches in the last 20 years and none have been profitable ATS with New York. Saleh is 23-31-1 ATS with the Jets, the least profitable of the group.
➤Nathaniel Hackett is in his second year as OC in New York and his 11th as a coach or OC. His teams are 96-78-1 to the under, going .500 or better to the under in all five teams he’s been a part of.
'23-’24 NYJ: 7-13-1
'22 DEN: 6-11
'19-'21 GB: 27-27
'16-'18 JAC: 25-26
'13-'14 BUF: 13-19
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➤Not too many teams the Bears have historically dominated, but they are 6-1 SU vs. Panthers since 2010, including winning three straight and four straight at home.
➤As favorites of 4 pts or more, the Bears have covered the spread in four consecutive games, going all the way back to December of 2020. Prior to that stretch, the Bears had gone 0-6-1 ATS in their previous 7 games as a 4+ pt favorite.
The Bears haven’t covered five consecutive games as a favorite of 4 pts or more since 1999.
➤Recently though, the Bears have covered the spread in 4 straight games as a favorite, all at home, all under a 5-pt favorite mark.
Bears last covered 5 in a row as favorites back in 2018.
➤Caleb Williams has started his NFL career 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS as a favorite.
Since the merger in 1970, only 1 of 33 QBs taken 1st overall has won and covered their first three starts as a favorite: Eli Manning.
➤The Bears defense has been nothing but consistent.
Montez Sweat arrived in Chicago for Week 9 last season. Bears were 5th in EPA/play defense in Week 9 on, they were 30th Weeks 1-8.
This season so far, the Bears defense is 5th in EPA/play.
➤Caleb Williams leads the NFL in pass attempts 20+ yds downfield with 22. He also only has 3 completions of that distance. His 13.6% comp. % 20+ yds downfield is 2nd-lowest of 32 QBs with at least 5 attempts this year. The lowest is Jacoby Brissett at 12.5%.
Most INT passes 20+ yds downfield
Caleb – 3
Richardson – 3
Levis – 3
➤Caleb has 34 total “bad throws” this season – passes off-target – the most in the NFL by 12 over Dak Prescott and Bo Nix.
➤”Hey, you’re not going to punt too much here.”
Caleb Williams:
3 TD, 4 INT, 787 pass yds, 6 20+ yd completions, 5.6 Y/A
Tory Taylor:
20 punts, 9 inside 20, 958 punt yds
➤The upgrade from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton is very simple.
- Panthers have scored 60 pts in Andy Dalton’s two starts. Carolina scored 61 total points in Bryce Young’s last seven starts.
- They aren’t starting in a hole. Panthers have scored 35 pts in two first halves with Dalton. With Bryce, they had lost 10 straight 1Hs ATS, scoring 28 total pts in the first half of all ten games.
- Panthers have scored 24+ pts in consecutive games under Dalton. They’ve done that one other time since 2021.
- Of the 67 QBs last two seasons with at least 50 plays, Dalton is 6th in EPA/play, Bryce is 60th.
➤The Panthers have been an underdog in 24 straight games (33 of last 34) and were last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT). They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, with every other NFL team has had at least three covers as favorites since Sept. 2021 and they were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
➤Joe Burrow has faced Lamar Jackson five times in their careers. Jackson holds the SU advantage 4-1 and is 3-2 ATS vs. Burrow.
Oddly enough, Burrow and Lamar have only faced off in Cincinnati one other time – Last September, a 27-24 road win for the Ravens as 3.5-pt underdogs.
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 45-29 ATS (61%) since 2018, best of any division, they are .500 ATS or better in 7 straight seasons and they are 23-14 ATS since 2021.
➤Burrow has made 29 home starts in his career with the Bengals and he has closed as an underdog just eight times – going 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS. 2 of Burrow’s 4 SU wins as a home dog have come against Patrick Mahomes.
Burrow is 8-5-1 ATS at home when he is -3 or shorter as a favorite or listed as an underdog.
➤Zac Taylor has heavily relied on Joe Burrow in his coaching career. He is 8-22 SU with all QBs not named Burrow and is 35-27-1 SU in starts with Joe at QB.
When Cincinnati is going bad, Taylor doesn’t exactly pick them up.
Zac Taylor on ML by Bengals win pct
Under .500 SU: 14-28-1 SU (33%) – including 9-11-1 SU with Burrow
Over .500 SU: 22-15 SU (61.1%) – 21-11 SU with Burrow
➤In divisional games, Taylor is just 11-20 SU, compared to 32-29-1 SU in non-divisional games.
Taylor is .500 SU or worse vs. every AFC North head coach in his tenure.
4-6 vs. Tomlin
1-1 vs. Kitchens
4-7 vs. Harbaugh
2-6 vs. Stefanski
➤Home divisional underdogs in the first four games of the regular season are 60% ATS over the last 20 years and are 3-0-1 ATS in 2024.
In games 5-8 over that span, they are just 58-62-1 ATS.
➤The Ravens are the first NFL team in league history to out-rush opponents by 100 or more yards in each of the first four games of the season.
➤As a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog, Lamar Jackson is 24-5 ATS in the regular season — best mark of 282 QBs last 20 years.
When Lamar is favored by more than 3 points, he is 21-31 ATS in the regular season.
➤Justin Tucker is 2-for-5 on FG’s 40+ yds in range this season.
Dating back to last season, Tucker is just 1-for-7 in his last 7 50+ yard field goals.
➤Back-to-back first half covers for Lamar. Overall, Jackson is 53-32-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 260 QBs.
2024: 2-2 1H ATS
2023: 13-5 1H ATS
2021-22: 10-13-1 1H ATS
2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
➤This is one of just a few games that could close with a total of 50+ this week.
Totals of 50+ are 4-0 to the under this season, going under the total by 13.6 PPG.
Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 16-4 to the under and last three years they are 34-14 to the under (71%).
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➤The Texans and Dolphins are the two teams left in the NFL without an ATS cover. In game 5 or later, teams without at least one ATS cover are 45-37-1 ATS (55%) last 20 years.
37-25-1 ATS when listed as a pick’em or dog and 8-12 ATS as a favorite.
➤Last year, the Texans were 200-1 to win the Super Bowl. This year, they entered the year at 16-1.
Seven teams have made the SB odds jump from 150-1 to under 20-1 year-to-year since 1977 and only the 1988 Colts started 0-4 ATS like the Texans have. 1988 Indy moved from 150-1 to 20-1 year-to-year and started 0-7 ATS, finished 6-10 ATS and missed the playoffs.
➤The streak is over. The Bills in last week’s 25-pt loss to the Ravens broke a 43-game regular season stretch where they didn’t lose a game by more than 6 points. Last time they lost by more than 6 pts in regular season game prior to last week was in 2021 vs. Colts, losing 41-15 (they lost by 17 to Bengals in 2022 playoffs during this stretch).
➤On the other side of the spectrum…
Allen has 71 wins in his career. 51 of those 71 wins have been by seven points or more.
➤Josh Allen after a SU loss is 22-8 SU and just 15-13-2 ATS in his career, but he is 11-2 SU, 8-4-1 ATS in this spot when playing on the road or a neutral site.
➤For the 2nd week in a row, Josh Allen will face a contender in the AFC. In his career, Allen is 16-17 SU vs. conference teams who made the playoffs the year prior (AFC), when he faces previous playoff teams from the NFC? He’s 11-3 SU.
➤Allen has had success playing on road trips lately. He’s 6-4-1 ATS playing on the second game or later of a road trip, including winning four consecutive games SU and going 5-1 SU in his last six games in the spot.
➤In his career, here is how Allen has performed in tight spread games.
He is 21-14 SU in games with a spread of 3 or less, including 4-2 SU when that game comes after a SU loss (3-1 SU on the road.
➤The biggest advantage in Buffalo? That might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 62-42-3 against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 3rd-most profitable QB on the second-half spread. In 2024, he’s 3-1 2H ATS.
➤CJ Stroud has faced three opponents in his NFL career who are averaging 24 PPG or more on the season entering the matchup – the Texans are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in those games being outscored 81-36.
➤For the first time since 2012, the Texans opened the season being favored in their first four games. In 2012, Houston was favored in its first eight games of the season.
➤CJ Stroud has made 21 starts in his NFL career and he is 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-9 ATS as a favorite – for a total of 9-12 ATS.
➤Over the past two seasons, teams after playing the Chiefs and Ravens are a combined 50-25 SU, good for the 3rd- (BAL) and 4th-most (KC) profitable previous opponents in that span.
➤Trevor Lawrence has lost nine consecutive starts straight up dating back to November of last season, including four straight starts SU as a favorite and six straight starts SU as an underdog.
➤Worst QBs on the moneyline since December 1st last season…
Bryce Young: 1-7 SU, -$575
Jalen Hurts: 3-8 SU, -$592
Trevor Lawrence: 0-9 SU, -$900
➤Lawrence is 33-23 to the under in his NFL career, 4th-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 104 QBs), including 24-13 to the under in November or earlier.
Lawrence is .500 or better to the under in all four of his seasons.
➤Lawrence by opponent in the AFC South. He’s only under .500 SU vs. the Texans.
HOU: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
TEN: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS
IND: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS
➤Lawrence is 25-31 ATS in his career. He's 20-19 ATS with Doug Pederson compared to 5-12 ATS between Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer in his rookie season.
➤Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite:
Underdog: 34-26 ATS
Favorite: 30-35 ATS
➤The Colts have historically struggled with the Jaguars. Indy is 14-26-2 ATS vs. Jacksonville in the last 20 years – Indy’s least profitable opponent ATS.
It hasn’t been any better lately. They are 1-7 ATS vs. Jaguars since 2020 and 2-15-1 ATS vs. Jacksonville since 2015.
➤Look at it just Trevor Lawrence’s POV, he is 5-1 ATS in his career vs. Colts, including 3-0 SU/ATS at home vs. Indy, covering the spread by 23 PPG.
➤A tough schedule for Jacksonville. They are coming off back-to-back road games, with one being on MNF and then they are home this week before back-to-back games in London without a bye starting next week.
Jaguars last year lost by 20 at home to the Texans the week before back-to-back games in London.
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➤The Dolphins have been favored vs. the Patriots in just 6 of 42 games since 2003 with 3 of those 6 games coming since the start of the 2022 season.
➤Dolphins are 3-2 SU in their last five games in New England. Prior to that, they were 2-16 SU on the road in New England.
➤Home divisional underdogs in the first four games of the regular season are 60% ATS over the last 20 years and are 3-0-1 ATS in 2024.
In games 5-8 over that span, they are just 58-62-1 ATS.
➤Mike McDaniel is 19-21 ATS in his pro coaching career. He’s 17-16 ATS with Tua Tagovailoa and 2-5 ATS with Teddy Bridgewater, Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson in 7 starts.
In the 7 games without Tua, they are scoring 21 or less in 6 of the 7 games. McDaniel is 20-13 SU in games Tua Tagovailoa starts. He is 1-6 SU in games he doesn’t.
➤Mike McDaniel has coached six games on short rest. All 6 of those starts have come with Tua. Even with Tua, McDaniel is just 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on short rest, losing 57-17 to the Chiefs and Bills in their last two games in this spot.
➤The Patriots haven’t opened the season as underdogs in their first five games since 1991 – when they were dogs in their first 13 games of the season, finishing 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, more importantly 11-5 to the under in their 16 games.
➤Because it's important we keep an updated tally …
Patriots since Brady left: 30-42 SU, 30-39-3 ATS
Patriots since Belichick left: 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS
➤Jacoby Brissett is 32-20 1H ATS in his career. Of 260 QBs in the last 20 years, he's the 5th-most profitable QB 1H ATS behind just Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson, Peyton Manning and Jared Goff.
This season, Brissett is just 1-3 1H ATS, losing three in a row. He’s never finished a season below .500 1H ATS.
➤Patriots are coming off a loss on the road against the 49ers last week. In 2024, teams are 1-2 SU after facing the 49ers, but last three seasons, they are 11-26 SU, least profitable mark of any team in the NFL.
➤Just a bad spot. Patriots were in PST last week vs. 49ers now return home to EST this week. Teams in that spot cover just 45.5% of games since 2003. They are 0-3 ATS this season.
➤Since 2000, 20 teams have scored 45 pts or less through their first four games of the regular season – none made the playoffs.
Since 1990, 39 teams have scored 45 pts or less through their first four games of the regular season – one made the playoffs – 1992 Chargers.
➤The Texans and Dolphins are the two teams left in the NFL without an ATS cover. In game 5 or later, teams without at least one ATS cover are 45-37-1 ATS (55%) last 20 years.
37-25-1 ATS when listed as a pick’em or dog and 8-12 ATS as a favorite.
➤37 QBs have had at least 20 plays this season, Dolphins QBs rank 36th (Skylar), 35th (Huntley) and 24th (Tua) in EPA/play. All 3 are outside the top-20 in completion pct of those 37 QBs.
➤Dolphins are the first team since the 0-16 Browns in 2017 to have zero offensive plays with a lead through the first 4 games.
They beat the Jaguars at the buzzer, and lost to the Bills, Seahawks and Titans wire-to-wire.
➤This is projecting to be the lowest O/U of the week. NFL totals of 37 or less are 32-12-1 (73%) to the under since 2020.
➤Dolphins have lost five straight games against the first half spread entering this road game vs. Patriots.
Miami has been outscored by 6+ points in all five first halves. If Miami finishes below .500 1H ATS this season, it would be the first time since 2017.
➤No matter who starts for the Dolphins, it won’t be Tua until at least Week 8 after being placed on IR and Miami will start a backup QB
This will be the 27th game of the last decade where the Dolphins franchise has to turn to a backup QB now with Tua Tagovailoa out with a concussion.
Dolphins backup QBs:Skylar Thompson, Teddy Bridgewater, Jacoby Brissett, Josh Rosen, Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore and Tyler Huntley.
They are 7-19 SU, 10-16 ATS, going 3-12 SU since the start of the 2019 season. Dolphins haven’t won a road game SU with a backup QB since Matt Moore in 2016 – 12 consecutive SU losses.
➤Jayden Daniels has a 82.1% completion pct thru 4 starts, the best for not only any rookie ever, but any QB period. He broke the record of Tom Brady back in 2007 with the Patriots who went 16-0 SU during the regular season.
➤The Commanders offense behind Daniels and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has been just down right unreal.
This season, they are scoring points on over 67% of their drives. The league average is just above 35%. Washington is turning it over on 2.9% of drives, lowest mark in the NFL.
That 67% mark is the highest for any team through four games since at least 2000.
➤Last week against the Cardinals was one of the biggest wins in terms of spread for the Commanders franchise in some time.
They won by 28 as 3.5-pt underdogs — the +31.5 ATS margin is their largest in any game since 2015 and largest in a road game since 2001.
➤Washington had a big win on the road in Arizona last week and now come back across the country to play at home as a favorite.
Many would assume a let down spot. Since 2013, EST teas coming off a win in either MST or PST, who play as a home favorite the next week, is 74-50-3 ATS (60%), covering the spread by over 2 PPG.
➤Jayden Daniels has 46 carries in his 1st four career starts at QB. Daniels leads all QBs in rush attempts, rush 1st downs, rush TDs and he’s tied in red zone rush attempts this season.
Here are the most rushing attempts in 1st three starts as a rookie QB:
2018 Lamar Jackson, 68
2024 Jayden Daniels, 46
2020 Jalen Hurts, 46
➤Jayden Daniels has already accomplished something no rookie QB has since the merger.
Nine QBs since the merger had won a road night game within their first three career starts as a rookie (they are 9-26 SU). Only two had to play on the road again in their teams next game, and they both lost outright before last week.
➤The Browns have traveled to MST or PST a total of 27 times since 2003. They are 5-22 SU in those games, including 0-8 SU since 2019. Since the start of 2007, Cleveland is 2-19 SU in this spot.
How does Cleveland bounce back? Since 2017, they are 3-7-1 ATS in their game after a west coast road trip, including 1-6 SU in their last seven games when that next game is also on the road.
➤Deshaun Watson is 34-36-2 ATS in his career and 14-22-2 ATS as a favorite and 20-14 ATS as an underdog.
➤How bad has Watson been recently?
59 QBs have had 200+ plays since the start of 2022, Watson is 53rd in EPA/play, 52nd in success rate, 48th in CPOE (comp. % over expected).
His EPA/play mark is surrounded by Davis Mills and Zach Wilson.
Watson’s last 300 yd game came with the Texans in January 2021.
➤The Browns have odds of +4000 to win the Super Bowl. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), high expectations have not led to playoff results. Browns have had odds of 40-1 or shorter entering the regular season 11 times in the WC era and they've never won a playoff game that same season with a combined record of 73-110 SU.
➤Browns are 8-16 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 148 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin. Stefanski is 26-22-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.
➤The Browns had the best defense in the NFL last year, by most standards. But for this concept, it was by EPA per play on defense, too. Over the last decade, their -0.155 EPA/play mark on defense was the fourth-best of any team and the best since the 2020 Rams and 2019 Patriots.
Looking over the last decade, 22 teams have put up a defensive EPA/play of -0.1 or better (not including 2023) – all 22 teams had a worse EPA/play mark the following year with 19 of the 22 teams also having a worse EPA/play ranking than the previous year. Only one team improved their ranking year-to-year, the 2019-20 Steelers. On average, teams had a ranking between seven and eight spots worse the following year after an incredible defensive season.
Through four weeks, the Browns are 12th in EPA/play on defense at -0.051.
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➤The Broncos have struggled mightily with the Raiders in recent years. They’ve lost 8 consecutive games SU vs. Raiders, including 1-10 SU in their last 11 matchups.
The ATS numbers aren’t any better. Denver has lost 6 straight ATS vs. the Raiders and are 1-12 ATS vs. Raider since the middle of the 2017 season.
Broncos haven’t beaten the Raiders in Denver since 2019 behind Drew Lock.
➤This is projecting to be one of the lowest O/U of the week. NFL totals of 37 or less are 32-12-1 (73%) to the under since 2020.
➤Since 2015, Broncos home unders are .500 or better in 9 straight years, going 48-29-1 (62%).
That is the best mark in the NFL, just ahead of the Chiefs at 55-36-1 to the under.
➤2024 has been a different year for Gardner Minshew. He is 0-1 SU as a favorite and 2-1 SU as an underdog.
Minshew is 9-5 SU in his career when listed as a betting favorite and now 8-19 SU as an underdog. Minshew is 3-15 SU in his past 18 starts as an underdog dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
➤The Raiders run game has been a struggle this season. The Raiders 305 yards rushing are 2nd-fewest in the NFL (last is DAL) and their 84 rushes is the fewest of any team. Raiders are last in rush EPA/play and rush success rate.
The Raiders only have 13 rush 1st downs through four games – tied for fewest for any team last three seasons.
➤The Broncos are already 3-0 ATS on the road this season. In his career, Sean Payton is 80-58-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site.
How about at home? Broncos are 0-1 ATS this year and 7-11 ATS since 2022. Since 2018, even Sean Payton is just 19-27 ATS.
➤Payton is 8-9 ATS in Week 1, 4-13 ATS in Week 2 – for a combined 12-22 ATS – 2nd-worst of 139 coaches last 20 years, ahead of just John Fox.
In his teams 3rd (12-5 ATS) and 4th (12-4-1 ATS) games, he is a combined 24-9-1 ATS, best of any coach in the NFL of 134 coaches.
Game 5 on, Payton is still 54.3% ATS career.
➤How have the Raiders performed since moving to Las Vegas?
Raiders at home in Vegas: 18-18 SU, 20-15-1 ATS
On road/neutral: 16-20 SU/ATS
➤Antonio Pierce is 9-3-1 ATS with the Raiders – the best ATS win pct for any coach for the Raiders in the Wild Card era since 1990. That 9-3-1 ATS mark is the best record of any coach in the NFL since he got the job in Week 9 last year.
➤Purdy is 17-14 ATS in his NFL career. When he’s favored by 4 pts or more, he’s 9-12 ATS, when he’s favored by 3.5 pts or less or an underdog, Purdy is 8-2 ATS.
➤Purdy is 6-3 ATS vs. NFC West opponents and just 11-11 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
Purdy has faced the Cardinals in three games. He is 3-0 SU/ATS, with spread of 12.5, 15 and 14.5, facing David Blough, Josh Dobbs and Kyler Murray each once.
➤This is one of just a few games that could close with a total of 50+ this week.
Totals of 50+ are 4-0 to the under this season, going under the total by 13.6 PPG.
Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 16-4 to the under and last three years they are 34-14 to the under (71%).
➤Tom Brady will be on the call for Cardinals-49ers after having Cowboys-Browns in Week 1, Saints-Cowboys in Week 2, Ravens-Cowboys in Week 3 and Eagles-Bucs in Week 4. Just so we can keep track, road teams 3-1 SU/ATS, underdogs 3-1 SU/ATS and overs 4-0 with Brady in the booth.
➤Teams to lose by 17+ pts vs. team who won by 17+ pts the previous week — 113-77 ATS, 60% last 20 years. Cardinals are the only match this week.
➤Teams to lose by 28+ pts the previous week and are dogs of 4+ points in their next game — 115-72 ATS, 62% last 20 years. Cardinals are the only match this week.
➤Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently, even with consecutive covers in-division vs. Rams and Seahawks. They are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in the spot.
➤There has been some discussions about the Cardinals and Kyler Murray making comebacks. Cardinals are 3-29 SU down 10+ points at any point in the game since 2021.
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➤Packers lost to the Vikings last week at home. GB is 17-10 ATS under Matt LaFleur after a SU loss. Unfortunately, that stat is 13-5 ATS with Aaron Rodgers and Malik Willis now and only 3-5 ATS with Jordan Love..
➤Packers are 7-3 ATS after playing the Vikings under LaFleur and 22-7 ATS the game after playing an NFC North foe – 4th-best mark of any head coach last 20 years – 1. Belichick, 2. Reid, 3. Harbaugh, 4. LaFleur.
➤Matthew Stafford’s NFC North revenge tour with the Rams playing that division this year now turns towards the Packers after facing the Bears last week.
Stafford has faced the Packers 21 times in his career, he is 9-12 ATS, but more importantly, Stafford has lost four consecutive games SU vs. Green Bay dating back to 2019.
➤The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this year. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best % for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).
You would expect to see a down turn on his favorite numbers, but he’s actually 31-28 ATS as a favorite with the Packers – but the issue has been away from home, going 8-13 ATS as a favorite.
In the first three weeks of the regular season, LaFleur is 15-3 ATS with the Packers, best win pct among all head coaches since 1990 (min. 10 games).
He’s 40-36 ATS in game 4 on.
➤Dating back to last season, Kyren Williams has scored a TD in 7 consecutive regular season games, tied with David Montgomery for the longest streak in the NFL. Derrick Henry and Justin Jefferson both have a streak of five.
➤The combo of Stafford and McVay are just 8-8-2 ATS after a SU loss, but that includes 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS at home and 2-7 SU, 2-5-2 ATS on the road.
➤McVay has enjoyed his games against divisional opponents, going 28-18-1 ATS in his career. Compared to 39-41-3 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
➤The Rams have allowed a whopping 9.14 yards per attempt on defense this year, highest mark in the NFL – Jared Goff in Week 1, Kyler Murray in Week 2, Brock Purdy in Week 3 and Caleb Williams in Week 4 have averaged almost 10 yards per attempt vs. Rams through four weeks. 2nd-worst on that list is fellow NFC West friend Arizona.
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 24-8 SU when listed as favorites and only 5-13 SU as underdogs.
➤The Rams OL is an issue. Stafford has been sacked 14 times in their first four games, his 2nd-most through Week 4 in his career, behind 2022 (16).
Rams are last in pass block according to PFF and Stafford has been pressured on 42 dropbacks, 2nd-most in NFL ahead of just Deshaun Watson (54).
➤Stafford needs to turn clock back to Super Bowl run — He went 3-0 SU as a dog that year. Since then, he’s 2-13 SU as a dog. Career, he’s 30-78 SU as an underdog — 27.8%.
Against the Packers, Stafford is 2-12 SU as an underdog.
➤Seahawks are off short rest, Giants are off extended rest.
Favorites on short rest, playing a team on extended rest are actually 43-13-1 SU (77%) and 31-26 ATS last 20 years and 27-6-1 SU, 19-15 ATS as a favorite of over 4 pts.
➤When the Giants are off a SU loss under Brian Daboll, they are 14-6 ATS in their next game, including 11-5 ATS when listed as a underdog, including 9-2 ATS as a dog of 3 pts or more.
➤As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Geno is 16-5 SU in his career – 11-5 SU at home and 5-0 SU on the road.
Geno has closed -5 or higher six times and he is 6-0 SU in those games.
Here is the list of QBs since 2003 to be 6-0 SU or better as a 5+ point favorite: Chad Pennington (13-0), Ryan Fitzpatrick (10-0), Geno Smith (6-0 SU).
➤Geno Smith is playing like a top QB so far this year. 7th EPA/play, 2nd success rate, 9th in CPOE, 1st in total pass yds and 1st downs.
More importantly, he’s also 7th in EPA/play, 2nd in success rate and 4th in CPOE on 1st and 2nd downs, helping Seattle try and avoid 3rd downs (16th in NFL).
➤Geno Smith is 11-16-2 ATS as a favorite in his career and 22-18-2 ATS as an underdog.
Of Geno's 11 career covers as a favorite, only two came when the opponent scored more than 20 points. As a favorite of over four points, Geno is 2-8 ATS in his career.
As a dog, he’s struggled a bit lately, going 4-8 ATS in his last 12 games in the spot
➤Two covers in a row for Daniel Jones.
Giants got a massive road win two weeks ago in Cleveland breaking the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL with Daniel Jones and then got the cover by a single point last week at home vs. Cowboys/
Prior to the Ceveland game, dating back to the 2022-23 playoffs, Daniel Jones had lost 9 consecutive games ATS, with his last ATS win coming against the Vikings in the playoffs in January 2023.
➤We know Daniel Jones hasn’t performed his best in primetime. He is now 1-14 SU and 6-9 ATS in night games.
How does Jones perform coming off a night game, when the next game isn’t also at night? He is 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS, a much better display than his primetime record.
➤In 1p ET games or earlier, Daniel Jones is 19-18-1 SU, 22-16 ATS. After the 1p ET window, he is 5-22 SU, 12-15 ATS (1-6 ATS last 7 starts).
The 5-22 SU mark after 1p ET is ranked 256th of 259 QBs in ML profitability in the last 20 years and is the worst mark by win pct minimum 20 starts.
➤Malik Nabers has 52 targets through four career games. Tied for the most for a rookie, with Puka Nacua last year.
Most Targets, Through 4 Career Games as Rookie
52 – Nabers, 2024
52 – Puka Nacua, 2023
44 – Anquan Boldin, 2003
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➤Rivals meet once again. Steelers and Cowboys haven’t played since 2020, playing every four years since 2004.
Cowboys have covered 3 straight vs. Steelers.
Since the merger they’ve played 17 games, Dallas is 8-9 SU and an even 8-8-1 ATS
➤Dating back to last season, the Cowboys have struggled ATS recently. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games – the worst mark for any NFL team in that span.
➤Justin Fields has made eight career night starts in the NFL, he is 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS, but its really been the ups and downs.
In his first five night games, he was 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS
Since, he’s 3-0 SU/ATS in night games
➤When opponents score more than 20 pts vs. a Justin Fields-led team, they are 22-0 SU.
All 13 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 pts or less — with their average being 13 PPG.
➤Dak has had his struggles as an underdog. He’s 16-18 ATS in his career, but 1-8 ATS as an underdog in his last nine starts.
Since 2020, he’s 3-10 ATS as a dog. Here are the only QBs worse: Bryce Young, Minshew, Fields and Mac Jones.
➤Dak Prescott is 29-12 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,541) | 37-45-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$1,024).
Over the past 20 years, Prescott has been the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. his division (Rodgers is first).
In his career, Dak is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS at night vs. NFC East teams and he is just 11-14-1 ATS vs. non-NFC East teams in night games.
➤Dak goes up against a tough Steelers defense this week, who is allowing 13.2 PPG, 2nd-fewest in the NFL behind just the Chargers, at 12.5 PPG.
In Dak’s career, he is 3-8 ATS in night games when facing a defense allowing under 20 PPG and he is 17-7-1 ATS when that defense is allowing 20 PPG or more.
➤In Dak’s career, he has played 23 games on extended rest during the season, and he is 17-6 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 5.9 PPG.
Dak has covered the spread in five consecutive games on extended rest and is 11-3 ATS in the spot since 2019, best mark in the NFL.
➤Over the last 20 years, the most profitable coach ATS on extended rest? Mike McCarthy at 37-23-3 ATS (62%). He was 25-18-3 ATS with the Packers and is 12-5 ATS with the Cowboys.
➤Cowboys have no issues coming off a usually easy game against the Giants historically. Under McCarthy, they are 6-1 ATS the game after playing the Giants, winning and covering six in a row.
Dak is 21-15-1 ATS after a game vs. NFC East, with McCarthy 15-9 ATS in that spot witht he Cowboys.
➤Brandon Aubrey has turned into a weapon for Dallas. Aubrey is 16-17 from 50+ yards in his career and 25-26 from 40+ yards. He has 43 total pts this season.
➤Pittsburgh finally managed to lose a one-score game last week against the Colts, but it was only one-score because of a big comeback anyway. They are 2-1 SU this season in one-score games.
Last year, the Steelers were 9-2 SU in one-score games (within eight points), the best mark in the NFL – which is nothing new for Pittsburgh. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for eight straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Since 2020, they are 33-12 SU in one-score games, best mark in NFL. They are 31-14 ATS in those games with their avg line being close to PK in those games.
➤The Steelers are 23-15-1 ATS since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger at the end of the 2021 season. Pittsburgh is the 3rd-most profitable team ATS in the NFL in this span behind only the Lions and Giants.
Here are the 4 QBs Pittsburgh has used: Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky & Justin Fields.
Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger is 43-28-3 ATS, covering by 1.6 PPG, 78% in 6-point teasers.
➤When Dennis Allen is an underdog of a FG or more, his teams are 6-29 SU, with a $100 bettor down $1,542.
When that game is played past the 1p ET window, he is 2-14 SU in those games.
➤Carr is 24-35-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (135 of 135 QBs). He’s 26-26-1 ATS at home in that span.
Dating back to last season, Derek Carr has covered his last three road games. Carr hasn’t covered three straight road games since November of 2020, almost four years.
Carr is 2-0 ATS on the road this season so far – he hasn’t finished a season above .500 ATS on the road since 2016.
➤Carr has struggled in his career facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season – he's 35-59-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more.
Of the 266 QBs in Bet Labs' database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
When he faces a defense allowing fewer than 21 PPG, he’s 35-21 ATS – 5th-most profitable QB. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Carr.
➤Carr has had his struggles in night games recently. He’s 0-4-1 ATS in his last five night games and 2-7-1 ATS in his last ten night games.
Carr is 2-8-2 ATS in road night games in his career, the 3rd-worst mark of 177 QBs last 20 years ahead of just Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford.
Ironically enough, Carr has played on MNF 11 times and is 7-3-1 ATS in those games.
➤Since 2018, the Saints have been more consistently a road team vs. home team.
They are 22-32 ATS at home and 34-19-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral) – the best road/neutral team ATS in the NFL and the 3rd-worst home team.
➤The good news for the Saints is they are 'dogs this week. Derek Carr is 55-46-1 ATS as a 'dog and 22-38-2 ATS as a favorite.
➤This will be Mahomes’ 9th career MNF start. He is 6-2 SU and 4-3-1 ATS, losing his last MNF game last season at home to the Eagles.
In home night games, he is just 11-11 ATS. He’s 15-7-1 ATS in road/neutral night games.
➤KC is a big favorite on MNF. In Mahomes’ career he is 25-8-1 ATS in games where he closes -3 or shorter or an underdog. When he is above -3, he is 38-43-3 ATS career.
➤This season, Patrick Mahomes has 7 turnover-worthy throws, which is tied for 2nd-most in the NFL behind Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix with 8.
Mahomes’ erratic starts aren’t new. He had 6 TOW throws through four weeks last year and 10 the year before.
➤In Mahomes’ career, he has made a start after the Chiefs scored 17 pts or fewer in their previous game 11 times and KC is 10-1 SU, winning ten consecutive games dating back to 2019.
➤Mahomes had a passing yards total in the betting market last week of 250.5 – which was the lowest for him in any game since 2018. He finished the game with 245 passing yards, just shy of the mark.
Mahomes has gone under his passing yards total in three straight games since Week 1.
➤In his career, Mahomes is 31-5 SU vs. the AFC West, including 18-1 SU on the road a neutral site.
Is there any type of impact after a divisional game for KC? Nope. Patrick is 30-5 SU in games after facing a AFC West team.
➤Another Kansas City comeback last week vs. Chargers. Chiefs are now 16-12 SU (57%) in games they trailed by 10+ pts at any point since 2019. The next highest win pct by any team is 28% SU in that timeframe.
➤Since 2015, Broncos home unders are .500 or better in 9 straight years, going 48-29-1 (62%).
That is the best mark in the NFL, just ahead of the Chiefs, who are at 55-36-1 to the under in home games.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: This system works off of Pythagorean +/- and underdogs. Pythagorean is how well a team is overperforming or underperforming as compared to their pythagorean win-loss record.
Matches: NYJ, NYG, CLE
System: Watch out for big line moves.
Matches: Check current lines. Seven matches early week.
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System: Bet teams off double-digit losses early in the season, followed up by a road game.
Matches: BUF, MIA, CAR, ARI
System: This system looks at fading teams early in the season who are covering by a large margin, facing a team doing poorly in terms of record.
Matches: CLE, LAR
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