Welcome back to The Lookahead.
While everyone else is busy betting on this weekend's games, we are getting out ahead of things with a pair of picks for next Sunday. It's all about locking in that sweet closing line value (CLV), gobbling up free line value before this week's results move the lines.
And we're smashing the CLV so far. We got the best of the line on each of our first four picks, twice by a full field goal. It looks like we'll take our first CLV loss this week with the Chargers, but you can't do much about a team losing Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater, and if you follow on the app, we bought out of our position without much damage.
If we keep getting positive CLV ahead of the line moves, this will go our way over the long run. I've already got your Sunday picks covered, so let's look ahead and get some more CLV for those Week 5 games before the weekend.
This line baffled me so much I had to triple check it to make sure it wasn't a typo. The Patriots are favored? Against the Lions? That would have made sense pretty much any time over the last two decades, but in 2022? Brian Hoyer's Patriots are favorites?!
Yes, Brian Hoyer. Perhaps there's hope Mac Jones plays and that's the reason for the line, but I don't buy it. Jones has a high ankle sprain so bad that there's talk of a potential surgery.
I fully expect Hoyer to start, so again, how is New England favored? Hoyer has lost his last 11 starts! His last win was six years ago against the Lions. He's switched teams five times since winning a game! Brian Hoyer! An NFL favorite in 2022!!
Detroit looks genuinely good. The Lions rank seventh in Offensive DVOA with a dangerous rushing attack and elite offensive line, while the Pats have the fourth-worst run DVOA defense through three weeks.
Dan Campbell's Lions have covered 10 of their last 12, and they're favorites this week against Seattle. New England is nearly a double-digit underdog in Green Bay. If the Pats look tepid in a loss and Detroit looks good again, there's no way the Lions will be underdogs when this line reopens.
I'll back the underdog Lions — but I don't expect them to be underdogs when this game kicks off.
This is a great situational spot to back the Seahawks as road underdogs.
New Orleans plays in London this week and are up against it with an injury report that is mounting. Notably, Jameis Winston continues to struggle through a back injury (and is doubtful for Week 4). Alvin Kamara (ribs), Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) and members of the offensive line are also batting ailments.
Even more important is the fact that the Saints will play Seattle after the London game without a bye week in between.
Only five times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week. They're 2-3 ATS, and two of the three favorites lost straight up. It's a brutal swing of travel that puts New Orleans at a serious disadvantage.
If it is Winston at QB, he's 8-18-1 ATS (31%) as a favorite, failing to cover in five of his last six opportunities. Dennis Allen is 2-6 ATS (25%) as a favorite, and Pete Carroll has gone 42-27-3 ATS (61%) as an underdog.
This line is just way too inflated. What have the Saints done to be a touchdown favorite? They should've lost Week 1 in Atlanta before a late comeback, and they lost by 18 points combined to offensively challenged Bucs and Panthers teams.
New Orleans' offense has been just as bad, yet this would be the second-most points Winston has ever been favored by in the NFL.
The Seahawks offense has been surprisingly solid. Their defense hasn't been good, but that's not as big of a problem with the Saints offense also struggling. Seattle has shown it can cover a back door if necessary, too.
Normally we wouldn't play a big underdog in The Lookahead and wait for this line to jump above seven. This is a rare spot where I think the line is too high, and since six is a key number too, I'll grab Seattle +6.5 while it's there.
