NFL Odds, Predictions for Week 5: Bets & Previews for All 13 Sunday Games

Here are my quick-ish betting thoughts for every NFL game on Sunday's Week 5 slate leading up to Sunday Night Football. I also am previewing the Bengals–Ravens game, so make sure you check that out on the Action App on Sunday night.

Hopefully, you pick up a key nugget or two from this that can help sway you one way or the other on a wager you were considering, which is the ultimate goal of this article.

Week 5 NFL Picks

All odds as of 4:15 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.

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Giants vs.

Packers

For whatever it's worth, NFL favorites have thrived outside of the United States. In 35 international games, favorites have gone 27-7-1 SU and 23-12 ATS.

My hypothesis is the better team has the superior coaching in general, which matters more when it comes to preparation during a unique week.

However, it's only a 35-game sample size, so there's a lot of noise in the data. Plus, in regards to this specific matchup, I rate both staffs very highly.

Each team has a laundry list of injuries worth monitoring. The most important is the status of Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who looks like he will start after doubts earlier in the week.

If Jones is indeed healthy, the Giants can stay within this number by leaning on a rushing attack that ranks seventh in DVOA. They can ride the legs of Saquon Barkley and Jones, when necessary, against a Packers defense that ranks 31st in rush success rate.

New England gave Green Bay a scare last week with that same game plan. Plus, this isn't the same high powered and explosive Packers offense we are used to seeing with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

I played the Giants +8, but a very small wager because of the injury uncertainty.

Notable Nugget: Underdogs in games with an over/under below 42 are 95-60-4 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. In the first eight weeks of the regular season, that spikes to 49-26-1 ATS. Also, Daniel Jones is a perfect 10-0 ATS as an underdog away from home of nine or fewer points.

Tail Stuckey on Giants +8 at FanDuel

Lions vs.

Patriots

With rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe under center, expect the Patriots to lean on the run just like they did last week against Green Bay's vulnerable run defense. There's no reason to deviate from that plan against a Lions stop unit that ranks last in EPA per rush. Through four weeks, the Pats are the only team in the NFL with a Rush Success Rate north of 50%.

I like the Patriots at -3 or lower and also bet under 46 in a total that looks too high after what everyone has seen in recent Lions games.

Yes, the Lions offense has looked great, but they've done a lot of damage in garbage time. If I remove garbage time per my personal parameters, their EPA per play ranking drops from eighth to 25th.

Plus, Jared Goff playing outdoors with a bevy of supporting cast injuries (D'Andre Swift is out and Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable) likely won't end well against the New England defense.

Expect the Patriots to methodically build a lead and grind the Lions down by leaning on their defense, running backs and special teams.

Notable Nugget: Bill Belichick is 36-14 SU and 38-11-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown.

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Steelers vs.

Bills

The Steelers catching 14 points just looks weird. They haven't closed as an underdog of 14 or more points since 1970.

On paper, this is a classic Mike Tomlin spot. However, his team just might be completely overmatched with a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road.  Plus, when the Bills win, they usually do so by double digits, with last week being a rare exception.

Although, it's not a great spot for Buffalo.

After two hard-fought road games against fellow AFC contenders Miami and Baltimore, it will come home to face the lowly Steelers before a playoff rematch with the Chiefs. Maybe the Bills come out a bit flat and/or they take their foot off the gas a bit earlier than usual.

Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries. Pittsburgh's potentially shorthanded secondary would worry me the most against Josh Allen, especially with T.J. Watt sidelined. For reference, in 2021, the Pittsburgh defense allowed 5.2 yards per play with Watt on the field compared to 6.2 without. He's that important.

It's Steelers or nothing at 14-plus in a classic Tomlin underdog spot, but I may ultimately pass. There's only so much motivation can do without a viable option under center and we still don't know what Pickett is.

Notable Nugget: As an underdog, Tomlin is an absurd 46-24-3 ATS, making him the most-profitable coach when catching points over the past 20 seasons. He's also 20-9 ATS as road underdog against winning teams.

Bet Pittsburgh +14 at FanDuel

Titans vs.

Commanders

I played Washington in a game I make the Commanders a slight favorite. I'm not happy about it either, trust me.

Bet the Commanders +1.5 at FanDuel

During their three-game losing streak, their offense has been absolutely dreadful. Just take a look at some of these metrics in non-garbage time compared to the next-worst team over that span:

• Success Rate: 25.6% vs. 34.6% (Denver)
• Dropback success rate: 18.2% vs. 33.3% (Houston)
• EPA per play: -0.380 vs. -0.231 (Carolina)

Ugly. However, I do think their offense can have more success against a Titans defense that doesn't generate pressure the way their two previous opponents — Eagles and Cowboys — can. That's critical with a beat-up offensive line and quarterback that struggles under fire.

On the other side of the ball, the Washington run defense has been excellent, ranking first in success rate and fourth in EPA per rush. That's obviously critical against Derrick Henry and an offense that relies on play-action.

I just think the market has oversold the Commanders, who could have easily beaten the Cowboys last week in a game they caught three on the road. Meanwhile, I don't think Tennessee has warranted any substantial positive adjustment for its past two wins.

The Titans jumped out to leads in both games and then held on for dear life. In fact, they haven't scored in the second half since their season opener. The Raiders victory came down to lopsided red-zone execution, while the Colts win came down to turnovers (and a few key Indianapolis injuries).

Speaking of turnovers, we could see some regression in favor of Washington. The Commanders have a league-worst -6 turnover margin, while the Titans are +4 if you exclude the Bills game.

Mike Vrabel, who always seems to exceed expectations, and the Tennessee staff deserve a ton of credit for the past two games. The offense has thrived early on in the scripted portion, but it hasn't really done anything thereafter, which speaks to the limitations of the roster.

For the season, the offense ranks dead last in EPA per Play after the first quarter. Meanwhile, the defense ranks 30th overall in that same statistic for the entire season. This is still a bad football team that doesn't warrant this price tag.

Notable Nugget: Vrabel continues to thrive as an underdog with a career 20-12 (62.5%) ATS record. However, he has not enjoyed much success as a favorite at just 15-21-1 (41.7%).

Seahawks vs.

Saints

Coming into the season, nobody in their right mind would've believed the Broncos would be one of only two teams (Colts) averaging 15 or fewer points per game through five games, while the Seahawks ranked 11th at just under 24.

Yet here we are, with a Seattle offense that ranks fourth in EPA per play in large part due to the play of quarterback Geno Smith. Believe it or not, Smith sits in a virtual tie with Patrick Mahomes among qualified quarterbacks in CPOE+EPA. The man he replaced, Russell Wilson, ranks 25th.

While the Seattle offense has significantly exceeded expectations, the same can't be said of a defense that ranks last in EPA per play. If the Lions don't have the worst defense in the NFL, then the Seahawks do with a potentially historically bad unit. Their inexperienced secondary can't stop a nosebleed, while the front seven can't generate pressure nor stop the run. They do nothing well.

Smith can certainly have a good season with the talented receivers he has on the outside paired with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's aggressive play-calling. However, he certainly won't keep up this pace unless the NFL allows Seattle to play Detroit every week.

This is an odd spot with the Saints playing the week after dropping a close game in London, while the Seahawks have a tough travel week after playing in Detroit. New Orleans is also dealing with an inordinate amount of injuries, especially on offense.

Andy Dalton will once again start at quarterback. I actually have him as a slight upgrade over the hobbled Jameis Winston we saw earlier this season. Dalton is more than capable of ripping up this Seahawks defense even with a shorthanded group of skill position players, just like Jared Goff did last week without D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Just a few weeks ago, everyone was rushing to fade the Seahawks, who have arguably the worst overall roster in the NFL. Now, that sentiment has flipped after a win over the Lions? It might be time to buy the Saints on the cheap here. New Orleans or nothing for me.

Notable Nugget: Smith has a ridiculous 77.3 completion percentage — that's the highest (minimum 125 attempts) by a quarterback in his first four games of a season in NFL history.

Bears vs.

Vikings

We don't have much of a sample size on the impact of teams playing the week after traveling to Europe. It's only happened five previous times in NFL history, with those clubs going 2-3 ATS in a meaningless data set. However, I imagine it can only hurt the Vikings, who I thought chose a very curious traveling schedule to and from London.

I played the Bears in a decent spot for a divisional road 'dog in a game where points may come at a premium. Chicago is dreadful in most categories but has excelled at running the ball. That plan of attack could work against a leaky Minnesota run defense that ranks 29th in Rush Success Rate and 26th in EPA per rush.

FanDuel Quickslip: Bet Chicago +7.5

New head coach Matt Eberflus also runs a zone-heavy defensive scheme that could give Kirk Cousins issues.

In their only previous meeting in 2020, Eberflus, then the defensive coordinator for Indy, got the better of Cousins in a 28-11 blowout victory. Cousins finished 11-for-26 for 113 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in one of the worst starts of his career.

Notable Nugget: With Minnesota, Cousins is just 5-10 ATS (33.3%) as a home favorite of seven-plus points, failing to cover by just under six points per game. That includes a shocking loss to the Bills (+16.5) in Josh Allen's first career start.

Falcons vs.

Buccaneers

Good luck to a Falcons defense that doesn't generate pressure (third lowest rate in 2022) against Tom Brady coming off back-to-back losses with a roster that's getting healthier.

Also, good luck to the Falcons offense (without Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts) against an elite Bucs defense that just got embarrassed on national TV.

This is a great spot to buy low on the Bucs. I also bet the Falcons team total at under 17.5.

Notable Nugget: The Falcons are the only undefeated ATS team left. Since 2000, 4-0 ATS clubs have gone just 13-18-1.

Buccaneers -10: Bet This Right Now at FanDuel

Texans vs.

Jaguars

I'm a believer in the Jaguars, who I bet to win the division in the summer. The coaching upgrade alone has done wonders.

Doug Pederson got plenty of offseason publicity, but his hiring of defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell didn't get talked about enough. As a Todd Bowles disciple, his scheme makes life very difficult for opposing running backs. That spells bad news for the Texans, who have one of the least-lethal passing attacks led by quarterback Davis Mills, who has struggled mightily on the road in his young career.

Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has made a huge leap in his second year and currently has the second-highest passer rating in the NFL with a clean pocket. He should do enough to get this done at home against the worst roster in the AFC.

I personally used the Jaguars in survivor, but this spread looks about right.

Notable Nugget: Since Nov. 2019, the Jags have only been favored by six-plus points one other time. That came last December at home against the Texans, who won outright.

Chargers vs.

Browns

If I knew both Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney were at full strength, I'd back Cleveland. However, while I'd guess both will play in some capacity, I'm not positive at what level. Therefore, I played this a bit safer by teasing the Browns with the Bucs.

The Browns, who are No. 1 in EPA per push, should have success moving it on the ground (and controlling the clock) in this matchup. Meanwhile, with wind in the forecast, the Chargers' struggling ground game (27th in EPA per rush) could hold back their shorthanded offense on the road.

Notable Nugget: Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski is just 8-16 ATS (33.3%) as a favorite, but 7-6 ATS as an underdog, including 6-2 against non-division foes.

Dolphins vs.

Jets

This game will have a ton of variance when the Jets have the ball. Miami's defense has been downright dominant against the run, so don't expect the Jets to get much in that department.

The Dolphins have blitzed at a high frequency in recent seasons, but are only middle-of-the-pack this season. They're also generating pressure at the second-lowest rate in the league. They may be calling a more conservative defense with injuries at cornerback that limit flexibility.

However, I'd be shocked if we didn't see a major uptick in blitz rate this week. After facing three elite quarterbacks, they will now go up against an inexperienced one playing in front of a decimated offensive line.

That could ultimately lead to a few fatal errors from Zach Wilson or a few explosive, game-changing plays. Can Wilson buy enough time to exploit a shorthanded Miami secondary? I'm not a Wilson buyer, but the Jets are an intriguing moneyline underdog due to this variance.

Notable Nugget: Teddy Bridgewater boasts a career ATS mark of 43-21 (66.7%). That includes a spectacular 24-6 ATS (80%) mark on the road. Over the past 20 seasons, only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have turned more profit for bettors among active quarterbacks.

Upset City? Bet the Jets Moneyline at FanDuel

49ers vs.

Panthers

It's not a great situational spot for the 49ers, who travel across the country from PST to EST on a short week after an emotional win in primetime over their division rival.

Over the past 20 years, teams in this spot have gone just 16-22-2 ATS (42.1%) — including just 3-10 ATS after a divisional game.

However, I'm in no rush to back Baker Mayfield, who's currently playing as poorly as any quarterback. The Panthers defense is playing well, but I'd need +7 to consider backing Carolina.

If it gets there, I'd reluctantly back the home 'dog in a good spot at a key number in a game with an extremely low total. Remember that underdogs in games with an over/under below 42 are 95-60-4 ATS since 2018.

Notable Nugget: Under Matt Rhule, the Panthers are 1-26 SU and 5-22 ATS when their opponent scores 17-plus points. Conversely, they are 10-0 SU/ATS when allowing 17 or fewer.

Eagles vs.

Cardinals

The Eagles could be the best team in the NFC, but I do think we will soon see inflated price tags on the Birds. They've benefited from turnover luck (the Jaguars had five) and a very favorable schedule that's included the Commanders, Lions and Vikings featuring primetime Kirk Cousins.

However, unless this line somehow reaches +7, I'm not running to bet on the Cardinals, who are an enigma under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They consistently come out ill-prepared to start games. On the season, they've been outscored 66-16 in the first half, but have flipped the script in the second half with a 72-37 edge.

Maybe I'll look at the Cards live if they get down big again. Kyler Murray's legs could play a huge role by neutralizing the overwhelming pressure Philly can create up front.

Keep an eye on the status of Philadelphia starting left tackle Jordan Mailata as his absence would be a major blow.

Notable Nugget: For his career, Kingsbury is a gaudy 19-7-2 ATS (73.1%) on the road, but just 9-17 ATS (34.6%) at home, including seven straight non-covers.

Cowboys vs.

Rams

After fading them a few times, it's time to buy the defending Super Bowl champs after they were thoroughly outplayed on national TV.

First off, is anybody even that surprised that Kyle Shanahan continued his domination of Sean McVay? That's like being surprised McVay dominated Kingbsury (again) a few weeks ago. That's just the circle of betting life in the NFC West.

Additionally, it's time to sell the Cowboys, which sets up a beautiful buy-low, sell-high spot. The love for Cooper Rush has gone too far, as I'm even hearing delusional folks suggest he's better than Dak Prescott. That's laughable.

The Cowboys offense ranks 31st in EPA per play if you remove the impact of turnovers across the league. Why do I bring that up if Rush has zero interceptions in three games? Well, the Bengals dropped multiple easy picks and the Commanders had two overturned due to illegal contact penalties.

The turnovers are coming soon and could flow against a Rams defense that ranks first overall in EPA per rush, which means Rush will have to make plays.

Rush has excelled in the scripted portion of games, but teams have an abundance of film now on what offensive coordinator Kellen Moore wants to do early. Also, let's not act like Rush has faced the most elite competition.

My potential parallel to Rush is Kyle Allen back in 2019. After Cam Newton suffered a season-ending injury, Allen took over as the starter in Week 3. He won and covered his first four games with a 7-0 TD-INT ratio.

Everybody suddenly hopped on the bandwagon, but in reality, he was benefiting greatly from luck and lack of opponent familiarity. He finished 1-8 SU with a 10 TD-16 INT ratio and failed to cover by an average of just under 11 points per game.

The Rams have issues, specifically on offense due to an underwhelming and beat up line. However, most of their struggles came against arguably the league's two best defenses in San Francisco and Buffalo.

It won't get much easier against Dallas, but I believe Matthew Stafford (and mainly Cooper Kupp) can score enough in a prime bounce-back spot against a backup quarterback. You could also see L.A.'s rushing attack get going against a semi-vulnerable Dallas rush defense.

Notable Nugget: McVay has won and covered five straight games on short rest. He's also 15-8 ATS after a SU loss (62.5%).

Bet the Rams -5.5 at FanDuel