NFL Week 5 Picks: Spread, Total Picks for Sunday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting expert, Chris Raybon, is targeting for his NFL Week 5 picks, including spread and total picks for Sunday, October 8.
Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs. Falcons
By Chris Raybon
Despite both teams possessing 2-2 records, the Texans have been a better team than the Falcons, and it hasn’t been particularly close.
The Texans rank 11th in overall DVOA, 14th on offense, 17th on defense and fifth on special teams. The Falcons rank 27th in overall DVOA, 25th on offense, 23rd on defense and 24th on special teams.
Much of the disparity comes from quarterback play. C.J. Stroud is third in yards per attempt (8.0) and adjusted net yards per attempt (7.65) while Desmond Ridder is 26th (6.3) and 29th (4.07), respectively. Stroud is producing positive EPA per dropback (0.102, 13th) while Ridder is in the negative (-0.198, 29th). Entering Week 5, Ridder led the NFL with 10 turnover-worthy plays, and his 6.6% turnover-worthy play rate is triple that of Stroud (2.2%).
After taking 11 sacks in his first two games, Stroud has taken none since while averaging 9.8 yards per attempt despite an injury ravaged offensive line that was missing both of its starting tackles, among others. In this matchup, left tackle Laremy Tunsil (questionable, knee) is on track to play for the first time since Week 1, and right tackle Tytus Howard was activated off IR and is on track to make his season debut.
Both defenses struggle against the opposing offense’s strength – the Falcons are 27th in DVOA against the pass while the Texans are 28th against the run – but the passing game has a far greater impact on the outcome of the game.
Per our Action Labs data, road underdogs under a field goal in their third through sixth game are 89-58-1 (61%) ATS since 2003, covering by 2.2 points per game.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Ravens vs. Steelers
By Chris Raybon
The Ravens are tied for first on defense with 3.8 yards per play allowed and get to face a banged-up Steelers offense that will feature Kenny Pickett wearing a bulky knee brace and will also be without Diontae Johnson (IR, hamstring), Pat Freiermuth (hamstring), Dan Moore (knee) and guard James Daniels (groin). The Steelers rank 31st in points per drive (1.02) and are last in red-zone trips (five).
The Ravens have a slow-paced offense, ranking 28th in seconds per play (28.99) overall and 26th in neutral situations (32.04). It will face a Steelers defense that has been slightly above average (14th in DVOA), but that will be fired up in a “rah-rah” Mike Tomlin spot at home coming off an embarrassing road loss.
The forecast calls for wind speeds upwards of 15 mph. Per our Action Labs data, divisional unders in games with double-digit wind speeds have gone 205-140-5 (59%) since 2004, covering by 2.1 points per game.
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Bengals vs. Cardinals
By Chris Raybon
The Cardinals have been a better team than the Bengals through four weeks, ranking 16th in DVOA while Cincinnati clocks in at 26th. Arizona has been much better than expected offensively, ranking sixth in DVOA and ninth in EPA per play despite already facing the stout Cowboys and 49ers defenses.
This is a good matchup for the Cardinals on offense against a Bengals defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. The Cardinals are first in rate of explosive rushes (defined as rushes of 12 or more yards) at 11.9%, while the Bengals rank 32nd in explosive rush rate allowed at 13.8%.
With Joe Burrow battling through a nagging calf injury, the Bengals offense has sputtered, ranking last in points per drive (0.95) and 31st in red-zone trips (six). On the road, the Bengals have scored six points and gained 353 total yards across two games, scoring on 2-of-22 drives (excluding end-of-half kneel-downs).
Despite being off the injury report, Burrow may not reach 100% all season, and it is having a negative impact on his ability to navigate the pocket and wait for routes to develop downfield. He is leading the NFL with a 67.7% rate of getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds, but is 31st (of 36 qualified passers) with 5.0 yards per attempt on such passes.
His accuracy has also suffered, as he ranks 31st with a -6.0% Completion Percentage Over Expectation, per rbsdm.com. It won’t get any easier this week with Tee Higgins ruled out with a rib injury.
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