Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 5 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 5 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Patriots
Matchup: Redskins
Confidence Rating: 89.6%
2. Eagles
Matchup: Jets
Confidence Rating: 88%
3. Chiefs
Matchup: Colts
Confidence Rating: 80.8%
4. Chargers
Matchup: Broncos
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
5. Bears
Matchup: Raiders
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
6. Titans
Matchup: Bills
Confidence Rating: 65.2%
T-7. 49ers
Matchup: Browns
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-7. Saints
Matchup: Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-7. Texans
Matchup: Falcons
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-7. Vikings
Matchup: Giants
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-11. Bengals
Matchup: Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-11. Cowboys
Matchup: Packers
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-11. Panthers
Matchup: Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 62%
14. Ravens
Matchup: Steelers
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-15. Rams
Matchup: Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 50%
T-15. Seahawks
Matchup: Rams
Confidence Rating: 50%
17. Steelers
Matchup: Ravens
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-18. Cardinals
Matchup: Bengals
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-18. Jaguars
Matchup: Panthers
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-18. Packers
Matchup: Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-21. Browns
Matchup: 49ers
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
T-21. Buccaneers
Matchup: Saints
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
T-21. Falcons
Matchup: Texans
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
T-21. Giants
Matchup: Vikings
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
25. Bills
Matchup: Titans
Confidence Rating: 34.8%
26. Raiders
Matchup: Bears
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
27. Broncos
Matchup: Chargers
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
28. Colts
Matchup: Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 19.2%
29. Jets
Matchup: Eagles
Confidence Rating: 12%
30. Redskins
Matchup: Patriots
Confidence Rating: 10.4%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
T-1. Titans
Spread: -3
Opponent: Bills
T-1. Giants
Spread: +5.5
Opponent: Vikings
T-1. Rams
Spread: +1.5
Opponent: Seahawks
T-4. Redskins
Spread: +15.5
Opponent: Patriots
T-4. Steelers
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: Ravens
T-4. Falcons
Spread: +5
Opponent: Texans
T-4. Colts
Spread: +11
Opponent: Chiefs
T-4. Saints
Spread: -3
Opponent: Buccaneers
T-9. Chargers
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: Chargers
T-9. Bengals
Spread: -3
Opponent: Cardinals
T-9. 49ers
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Browns
T-12. Panthers
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Jaguars
T-12. Eagles
Spread: -13.5
Opponent: Jets
T-12. Bears
Spread: -5
Opponent: Raiders
T-12. Cowboys
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Packers
T-12. Packers
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: Cowboys
T-12. Jets
Spread: +13.5
Opponent: Eagles
T-12. Raiders
Spread: +5
Opponent: Bears
T-12. Jaguars
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: Panthers
T-20. Browns
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: 49ers
T-20. Cardinals
Spread: +3
Opponent: Bengals
T-20. Broncos
Spread: +6.5
Opponent: Chargers
T-23. Buccaneers
Spread: +3
Opponent: Saints
T-23. Chiefs
Spread: -11
Opponent: Colts
T-23. Texans
Spread: -5
Opponent: Falcons
T-23. Ravens
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Steelers
T-23. Patriots
Spread: -15.5
Opponent: Redskins
T-28. Seahawks
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: Rams
T-28. Vikings
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: Giants
T-28. Bills
Spread: +3
Opponent: Titans
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
