NFL Week 5 Picks
Odds as of 11:15 p.m. ET on Sunday night.
 | |
Brandon Anderson: We sold high on the Dolphins last week, and now we’re buying low.
Miami wasn’t as bad as it looked on Thursday night. It was just a terrible situational spot. The Dolphins were on a short week road game after the defense had been on the field 90 plays against the Bills a few days earlier, and they were also playing with a QB that wasn’t whole.
The line moved against Miami in the buildup to its Week 4 game, the Dolphins played mostly fine against a talented Bengals team, Tua Tagovailoa left hurt, and now they’re back to being undervalued.
This line was -6 Sunday morning before the Jets beat Mitchell Trubisky and a rookie QB making his first NFL appearance, and they needed a late comeback to do so. From that result alone, a farcical victory against a terrible Steelers offense, we’re moving this line a whole field goal? I don’t buy it.
Maybe you’re worried about Tagovailoa. You shouldn’t be. Teddy Bridgewater was terrific in his place, and this dude is called Teddy Covers for a reason. Bridgewater is 42–21 against the spread (ATS) lifetime as a starter, covering two of every three games, and the road show is even better. Believe it or not, Teddy is an obscene 24–6 ATS on the road in his career for an absurd 80% cover rate.
Good for the Jets for playing better and grabbing a second win, but I won’t be thrown off the scent that easily. This is still a bad defense and terrible secondary, and they have no shot against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, no matter who’s throwing the ball.
I expect this line to move off the key number back toward Miami as the week progresses, so grab Teddy Covers now.
Click Here to Bet Dolphins -3 at FanDuel
 | |
Kody Malstrom: While riddled with injuries on the offensive end with De'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark all out, the Lions were still capable of moving the ball down the field in what is one of the more electric offenses in football.
The Patriots don't pose too much of an upgrade on the defensive end, entering Week 4 ranked near dead last in rush DVOA and middle of the pact in pass DVOA. With possibilities of Detroit's stars returning to action, we can expect the Lions to continue their scoring output.
Better yet, I initially thought this game was going to feature Brian Hoyer but he was knocked out with an injury and did not return against the Packers. Rookie Bailey Zappe showed that he is capable of running the offense in his first NFL game, completing 10-of-15 passes for 99 yards and one touchdown.
Going run heavy against the Packers, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson combined for 32 rush attempts and gashed the Green Bay defense. Now, New England gets a much weaker and softer defensive unit, poised for a big game as Zappe comforts into his role.
Take the over at anything lower than 49 in what will be another shootout for the Lions, who have started the season with four straight overs.
| |
John LanFranca: I normally like to make a play early in the week when there is an obvious overreaction stemming from Sunday's action. This line is actually an under-reaction.
The Titans once again got out to a fast start versus the Colts in Week 4, showing why they are the top ranked DVOA team in the first half of games this season. Similarly to Matt Ryan, I will gladly fade Carson Wentz when I project the game to be in his hands in the second half. The Commanders entered Week 4 scoring on only 23.7% of their offensive drives, which is 31st in the NFL. That rate lowered even further after an abysmal performance that saw the offense average 3.52 yards per pass and score only twice in 13 possessions.
In contrast, the Titans are hitting their stride as we've seen back to back vintage Derrick Henry performances. Tennessee will be a public side throughout the week, so make sure to grab this line early, as the sportsbooks will not want to take a big liability on the Commanders, forcing them to move this number to 3.
| |
Brandon Anderson: Let’s grab an early Just-Win-Baby teaser for Week 5 and keep it easy.
It wasn’t pretty for the Packers, but they got the job done against New England to improve to 3–1. The Giants are also technically 3–1, but they’re not fooling anyone. The Packers run defense will have to find a way to stop Saquon Barkley, but the other 52 Giants don’t stand a chance.
Sunday morning London favorites remain undefeated at 10–0–1 straight-up in games not involving the Jaguars, thanks to the Vikings' late escape against the Saints. It’s a neutral field, so you just take the better team and know Rodgers will get the job done , especially since New York isn't even sure who will start at quarterback with both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor picking up injuries.
But I feel bad leaving the Jaguars out of London, so let’s grab Jacksonville and tease these games together.
The Jags got a tough lesson after blowing an early 14–0 lead in Philadelphia, but I still believe in them. That defense was actually excellent, but the offensive line didn’t hold up against a superior Eagles defense and Trevor Lawrence couldn’t hang onto the ball.
That was a problem against Philly, but it shouldn’t be against Houston. The Texans remain feisty and could push the back door, but I think we can trust this talented Jaguars team now to get a home win against a far inferior team.
Teasing these teams gets both lines down under two, so that we basically just need to get a win from each. Books tend to inflate lines in this range as the week goes on specifically as teaser protection, getting them to -9 so the teaser doesn’t get down to the key number. I suspect one or both of these lines could trend that direction, and they’re certainly not going to go the other way, so I’ll play now and lock in two teams I like against two squads I don’t. Just win, baby.
