We've already started making our NFL Week 5 picks.
Two of our betting analysts have identified their favorite Week 5 bets already. Check out the three games they've already bet on, starting with a divisional rivalry in the AFC North.
NFL Week 5 Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ravens vs. Steelers
This is the easiest Hot Read pick I've made all season. I've been waiting all week for this and have already bet multiple units.
This is the spot you want the Steelers: as an underdog at home in a divisional game coming off a loss.
As an underdog in Week 5 and later in the season, Mike Tomlin's teams cover at a 71% rate. As a home 'dog, Tomlin's Steelers are 14-3-1 (82%) against the spread (ATS). Coming off a loss of seven or more points, they're 8-1 ATS.
This matchup in particular has some trends that lead me toward Pittsburgh. The underdog in Ravens vs. Steelers is 18-2 ATS since 2005 when the spread is 3.5 or more points. Also, the underdog has covered in 11 straight games in this rivalry.
Furthermore, when Tomlin faces off against John Harbaugh, the underdog is 22-5-3 ATS.
I'm not worried about Kenny Pickett. Some of his metrics are worse than Zach Wilson's, who looked decent on Sunday night. If it's Mitch Trubisky, so be it. This is all about the spot.
Pick: Steelers +4
Texans vs. Falcons
By Ricky Henne
We figured the Texans would be better than they were a year ago, but few expected them to improve to this extent so quickly.
Houston manhandled the Steelers on Sunday in a 30-6 victory, one week after handling the Jaguars by 20 points on the road. The Falcons fell 23-7 in London to those very same Jaguars and now must fly back across the Atlantic to face the Texans at home
C.J. Stroud has made the Panthers look silly for passing on him in favor of Bryce Young, and I like his chances to keep the offense humming against the Falcons. However, it’s an underappreciated Houston defense that has me excited about this bet.
The Texans have allowed only two touchdowns over their last 10 quarters and are outscoring opponents 77-26 in that span. That’s terrible news for the Falcons, whose 15.5 points per game are tied for the fourth fewest in the NFL heading into Monday Night Football.
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Eagles vs. Rams
The Eagles continue to be a bit overrated at 4-0 with three one-score wins, and we will fade them eventually.
Not here, though!
The Eagles will dominate this game the way they did all of last season: in the trenches. The Rams entered Week 4 ranked 26th in Defensive DVOA and 29th against the run. Their defense right now is basically Aaron Donald and 10 guys they found.
I expect the Eagles to run all over Los Angeles while also thriving in the passing game, with no one on the Rams who can match up with either A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith.
The Rams also have a bottom-five offensive line that has no chance against rookie DT Jalen Carter and the Eagles' pass rush. Remember back in Week 3 on Monday Night Football when Matthew Stafford had no time to throw in Cincinnati? This will be like that, except potentially worse.
Also, Stafford finished Sunday's win over the Colts with a hip injury, so we could luck into Brett Rypien starting and this line skyrocketing.
I got this line at Eagles -4.5, which they covered in their first three wins of the season. It's up to -5.5 after being bet up quickly. We're actually getting value here, because the line was -6.5 before the season.
