NFL Week 5 Picks
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Brandon Anderson: This line baffles me.
It was Miami -6 on Sunday morning, with the Dolphins already off for three days at that point. Then the Jets barely came back to beat the mighty Mitchell Trubisky and a rookie debut QB making his professional debut for a team that's a missed extra point away from an 0-4 start … and we moved the line three points toward New York?
I don't buy it. Yes, the Dolphins are coming off a loss but everyone expected that on a short week on the road after an exhausting game in the heat. And yes, the Tua Tagovailoa thing is ugly, and Tua is out for this one, but Miami has the best backup in the league in Teddy Bridgewater.
Teddy looked just fine on Thursday night, and he gets to play on easy mode in this Mike McDaniel offense with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle terrorizing opposing secondaries. The Jets pass defense has been bad, and don't forget: Teddy Covers. Bridgewater is 42-21 (67%) against the spread (ATS) lifetime, and the road show is even better at an unbelievable 24-6 ATS, covering 80% of the time!
The Jets skew run-heavy but have been super inefficient, and Miami's been great against the run. The Dolphins pass defense is beatable, but if that's your angle, you're now betting on Zach Wilson to outduel Tyreek and Waddle in a shootout. Good luck with that.
Miami has owned this division rivalry, winning four straight and eight of nine. This line is an overreaction to a rousing Jets win and a schedule loss for the Dolphins. If this game was 10 days ago, it might've closed Miami -7 or longer. I expect the line to rise by kickoff, so buy low on the Dolphins now.
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Simon Hunter: This isn’t going to be a surprise to anyone who’s followed me this season. I love a home divisional ‘dog. It just so happens that I get one playing a backup QB who’s a favorite this week!
The public loves Miami, and why wouldn’t it? The Dolphins are 3-1, tied atop the AFC North and for the best record in the conference.
But come on, people! We’re better than this.
Bet Jets +3.5 at FanDuel Right Now
This is the same team that needed a historic comeback to beat the Ravens and Josh Allen to lay an egg just to get to 3-1. Should we really be treating the Dolphins as a top-three team?
There are injury concerns for Miami, as well. Tyreek Hill (groin) is a game-time decision, while WR Jaylen Waddle and LT Terron Armstead have been limited in practice all week. The Jets, on the other hand, have been getting healthier.
Facing Hill (if he’s active) and Waddle will be one of the more talented young cores in the league, including two CBs in D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner who have been graded as elite as the position through four weeks. I expect this New York defense to give a banged-up Miami team problems all day.
I’d bet the Jets down to +2.
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Stuckey: We don't have much of a sample size on the impact of teams playing the week after traveling to Europe. It's only happened five previous times in NFL history, with those clubs going 2-3 ATS in a meaningless data set. However, I imagine it can only hurt the Vikings, who I thought chose a very curious traveling schedule to and from London.
I played the Bears in a decent spot for a divisional road 'dog in a game where points may come at a premium. Chicago is dreadful in most categories but has excelled at running the ball. That plan of attack could work against a leaky Minnesota run defense that ranks 29th in Rush Success Rate and 26th in EPA per rush.
New head coach Matt Eberflus also runs a zone-heavy defensive scheme that could give Kirk Cousins issues.
In their only previous meeting in 2020, Eberflus, then the defensive coordinator for Indy, got the better of Cousins in a 28-11 blowout victory. Cousins finished 11-for-26 for 113 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in one of the worst starts of his career.
FanDuel Quickslip: Bet Chicago +7.5
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Jessica Gridiron: History has a tendency to repeat itself, and this game between the Chargers and the Browns will likely be one of those games.
Between the Chargers' inability to fix their defense and the Browns' propensity to run the ball, we could see the Los Angeles run defense completely annihilated by the third quarter. Los Angeles is without its elite defensive end in Joey Bosa that already has the fourth-worst rush defense in the league, according to EPA.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns own the NFL's best rushing attack, nearly double the second-ranked team Detroit Lions in rush EPA per play. With Cleveland likely placing an emphasis on their dominant run game against one of the worst run defenses in the league, coupled with the rowdy home-field advantage, the Browns make an interesting play as a home dog against a public Chargers team.
Los Angeles has shown it can give up points. The Chargers are giving up 27 points per game (30th in the NFL) and 349.5 yards (20th). On the other side, the Browns are scoring 26.3 points per game (sixth most) and averaging 384.4 total yards (fourth). Cleveland's offensive line has been a force to be reckoned with, and the Browns continue to dominate the line of scrimmage.
The Browns defense is also allowing the ninth-fewest yards per game, and it hasn't been easy for opposing teams to consistently move the ball up and down the field this season. The Chargers should be able to move the ball through the air, but Keenan Allen is out for a fourth straight game.
With Los Angeles banged up and missing key players, take the home 'dogs and back Browns +2 all the way to register.
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John LanFranca: There is not a lot of data regarding teams traveling back from London who have to play the following week, but it does not look promising for a struggling Saints team.
Andy Dalton will get his second straight start to face off against the top-ranked QB in football, according to Pro Football Focus. Geno Smith is completing a remarkable 77% of his passes, more than 10% higher than his expected completion percentage — also the widest margin in the NFL.
The Saints should not be laying this many points versus many other viable NFL teams. The Seahawks No. 3 DVOA ranked offense has already proven it can win on the road, and its only poor performance this season came when it took on a historically great defense in the 49ers.
The line is slowly creeping down to 4.5 as sharp bettors realize this line is inflated — as are most spreads in this range.
Since 2019, all road underdogs of 3.5-6.5 points are an incredible 111-62-1 (64.2%) ATS. Thus far in 2022, teams in this spot are 11-4 against the number, covering at a 73.3% rate. The Seahawks are a live underdog in this game Sunday.
I'd bet Seattle down to +4.
Bet at FanDuel Right Now: Seahawks +5.5
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Brandon Anderson: The Seahawks have been good! Seattle ranks second in Offensive DVOA, third in EPA per play, and fifth in Success Rate. This Seahawks offense looks genuinely good, and it now faces a Saints defense that hasn't lived up to billing. The pass rush isn't getting home, and the offense ranks 31st in Drive Success Rate and can't stay on the field long enough to give the defense a chance.
Coming into the season, the Saints were a trendy sleeper and the Seahawks were left for dead without Russell Wilson. Four games later, the Saints are a late comeback away from 0-4 with an injured star QB, RB, WR, and LT, and the Seahawks have better offensive numbers than they did with Wilson. So why does it feel like the books just forgot to update this line?
This is an awful situational spot for New Orleans returning stateside after a London game without a bye week. My study showed that post-London teams score less than expected and allow more defensively than expected. It tells the Seahawks have every chance to win this game, since every post-London team was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter of the following game.
The underdog trends line up for Seattle:
- Underdogs with totals below 42 since 2018: 95-60-4 ATS (61%)
- Geno Smith as an underdog: 15-9-2 ATS (63%)
- Pete Carroll as an underdog: 43-27-3 ATS (61%)
- Dennis Allen as a favorite: 2-6 ATS (25%)
- Jameis Winston as a favorite (if he starts): 8-18-1 ATS (31%)
We don't know right now if Winston will play, nor Alvin Kamara or Michael Thomas. If they all suit up, maybe this line rises to Saints -7. But with the way their health is trending, it feels more likely they miss out and I can see this line dropping toward a field goal, so I'll play right now.
The post-London study says to take Seattle's team total over 19.5. The Seahawks are averaging 23.8 PPG and face a tired Saints D. I'll play that over, back a Seahawks cover, and bet the moneyline too. I'm starting to think Sean Payton knew what he was doing bailing on this Saints roster.
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Jessica Gridiron: When betting the NFL, one avenue that tends to produce positive results is fading the recency bias. If you have a team coming off a big win with another coming off an embarrassing loss, taking the previous loser to cover the next game reaps positive results.
In this matchup, we have the perfect setup for this scenario.
The Titans are coming off two good wins to bring them back to .500 at 2-2. Tennessee ran out to a 24-10 halftime lead against the Raiders two weeks ago and never looked back as it secured a 24-22 win. Then, just last week, the Titans did the exact same thing to their divisional rival Colts. Tennessee jumped out to another 24-10 halftime lead and once again held onto a 24-17 victory.
The Commanders, on the other hand, have looked pitiful, especially as of late. Washington has dropped its last three games and failed to score more than 10 points in each of the last two weeks.
This is the ultimate buy-low spot for Washington, and with a league based on parity, I chose early in the week to forego the points and take them on the moneyline.
Even with quarterback Carson Wentz doing “Wentz things” he has still posted eight touchdowns to five interceptions with over 1,000 passing yards and a 82.3 quarterback rating. I’m expecting a regression to the mean for Wentz, whose last game ended with a horrendous 56.6 rating.
Another keynote for the Commanders is they currently own the fourth-best run defense in the league according to EPA, and the Titans are coming in with the 26th-best run attack. If Washington can continue to control the run game and force quarterback Ryan Tannehill into a passing game without any dominant receivers at his disposal, the Commanders will exit this game victorious.
The play here is Washington on the moneyline for the home win.
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Sam Farley: There was a lot of buzz around second-round pick George Pickens before the season, especially given the Steelers pedigree with evaluated receivers. Training camp noise took the hype around Pickens to another level, but he had a slow start to life in the NFL and was vocal about his frustrations with not getting the ball when he was open.
That all changed last week when Kenny Pickett came into the game for Mitch Trubisky. It's clear that there's a connection between the two rookies. Pickens was targeted on five of Pickett's 14 attempts, a target share of 35.7%.
The team has been looking to feature Pickens, and his target share has increased each week from 8.1% in Week 1 to 32% last time out. Pickens paid off the trust and went for 102 yards, hauling in six of his eight targets in Week 4.
There are a lot of talented pass catchers on the roster, not least Diontae Johnson, but Pickens looks special.
Pickens' receiving yards total has fallen from 42.5 to 40.5 already, as of Saturday night. I'd back the over all the way to 49.5. As good as the Bills defense is, this Pickett-to-Pickens connection looks like the future for the Steelers.
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Dylan Wilkerson: This one is pretty straight forward.
Social media channels have been flooded with statements about this fraudulent Lions defense. While statistically this is true, the Detroit defense has more trouble stopping the run than anything else.
Enter the Patriots, who just ran all over the Packers last week, almost pulling off a miraculous upset with Bailey Zappe leading the way under center — by handing the ball off.
Combine this matchup with a notoriously conservative coach in Belichick and a rookie starting QB, and you get the recipe for a run-heavy attack from New England. Don't expect Zappe to throw 30 times in this one.
